Rockdoc,
What do you think of the OPEC report showing SA production at about 9.4 mbpd in Feb 06?
Also, what do you think of the Opec rig count showing SA has 52 operating rigs as of Feb 06? This is significantly lower than the number you were given of 160.
Assuming they only have 52 operating rigs, what does that mean in terms of what we can reasonably expect SA to increase their production number to?
Speaking of the prospect of a military confrontation with Iran, Faisal noted that ``all the expectations that were placed on military intervention in Iraq have proved to be very optimistic.''
U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf states and worldwide ``can be struck at in retaliation for a strike against Iran,'' Faisal said.
During the presentation I attended the Aramco official stated that they had a policy to always keep between 1 and 2 MMB/d spare capacity...he did not elaborate on why.
If the fields were in serious decline and they were producing at capacity through this period one would have expected to see a drop in rates but they seem to have been maintained. This makes me wonder if the Saudis have not been managing the depletion through their spare capacity.
seahorse wrote:Wouldn't the recent statements that Burgan is now at least in a plateau coupled with Opec's numbers support the belief that Opec has peaked?
EnergySpin wrote:Poor Hubbert did not have a PerceptionWeAreRunningOut factor in his equations; this kind of invalidates the general logistic curve methodology to depletion modelling (not to mention the horrendous aspects of fittign anything on such curves).
Doly wrote:EnergySpin wrote:Poor Hubbert did not have a PerceptionWeAreRunningOut factor in his equations; this kind of invalidates the general logistic curve methodology to depletion modelling (not to mention the horrendous aspects of fittign anything on such curves).
As far as I know, the only people to do modelling including perceived amounts, rather than real ones, are the guys that wrote "The limits to growth". But their models usually considered that the perceived amounts were outdated, because news take some time to sink in.
It's hard to tell under the circumstances what game the Saudis are playing. They could be trying to convince people we are running out because it maximizes their profit. Then, maybe they have been so far trying to convince people that we aren't running out because they wanted a slow, rather than a steep, rise in prices.
I tend to agree with Simmons on this one. The Saudis have actually peaked, and they weren't telling until now. I think they figure that by now it's an open secret, so they may as well say it.
SoothSayer wrote:>> Saudi still has 5 - 10 more years left
They have MANY more years left ... BUT has their production peaked?
SoothSayer wrote:They are telling us the best way they can, via several routes, that maybe they can't produce much more per day ... so their production HAS peaked.
SoothSayer wrote:It doesn't matter WHY it has peaked ... politics or geology.
SoothSayer wrote:Who is going to get cold in winter? You or the poor in the Nepal mountains?
SoothSayer wrote:Can you outbid, say, the car drivers in Japan for fuel? If you succeed, what will happen to the Japanese economy?
If you fail to get that fuel, can you afford to go to work? Can you afford a hybrid car?
SoothSayer wrote:For the first year or two prices will simply get a bit nasty ... but not far down the road life will get truly awkward.
SoothSayer wrote:If SA / OPEC cannot [maybe will not] boost their production for some years then they have (for the moment) peaked.
Please don't take this as an impolite response, but this must impact the global situation. Equations / tables etc won't release any more oil into the market.
SoothSayer wrote:If Saudi mean what they say, then where will the increase in oil supplies needed next year by China and India come from?
Who will lose out?
What will crude oil prices do?
What demand destruction will we see?
A U.S. military strike on Iran would not eliminate the nuclear threat and would spark retaliation against American interests worldwide, said Saudi Arabia's Prince Turki al-Faisal, the kingdom's new ambassador to the U.S. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is pumping almost all the oil it can. It couldn't replace Iran's production by itself.
``The Iranians have put themselves in a difficult position,'' said Deborah White, a commodities economist with Societe Generale in London. ``The last time the U.S. suspected weapons of mass destruction, they invaded Iraq.''
EnergySpin wrote:The psychological impact would be of such magnitude that would send everyone dashing for alternatives and the Saudis would be left with almost no customer in less than 10 years.
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