[cube]

...
How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
"There were frequent blackouts in its oil-fed electric power grid, up to 16 hours per day."
http://tinyurl.com/32hol3

*cliks on link*
I can't imagine America taking that route.

I think we're more likely to have a 2nd civil war rather then taking the Cuban approach.

[roccman]

PEAK OIL, TOTAL COLLAPSE, AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI One of the best pimers on the web.

1) most members of Western Industrial Civilization are about to enter a ‘Bottleneck’ of historical magnitude and significance;

2) a confluence of various events is acting to cause the Bottleneck;

3) some of those events are: the peaking of production and ultimate decline of cheap, readily available exosomatic energy resources; the economic bankruptcy of nations; the depletion of water, soil, critical minerals, sea life; etc.

3.1) The entire basis upon which Western Industrial Civilization is built, — growth, and ‘Capitalism’, as a form of political economy, is based on the theoretical construct of ‘perpetual resource discovery, acquisition, development and exploitation’; and thus, as finite resources decline and ultimately deplete — as they must, capitalism and perpetual growth must decline and ultimately cease also!

4) humans are but one of numerous life forms and follow the same biological laws as do those other life forms;

5) humans thus, have no more probability for ‘perpetual existence’ than do other life forms;

6) the central banks of numerous nations have run the printing presses so fast and so long of late, that the world is awash with ‘liquidity’ (some 18-24% increase globally during 2003/2006), such that it allows false price-sensing for things like stocks and real estate; but few realize that the more dollars they hold the less they are worth; thus, there exists an intellectual disconnect for many between one’s real economic status/lifestyle, and one’s perceived economic status/lifestyle. This makes global economic collapse more probable than most realize.

7) “international resource wars” — wars fought to secure for the victor natural recourses — have begun in earnest, and the preemptive subjugation of weaker nations by other nations is now part of the permanent natural resource acquisition and exploitation scenario;

since some categories of weapons are so cheap (for their perceived ‘benefit’), these wars will be fought with ANY weapons available, including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and the prospect for Nuclear, Chemical or Biological ‘Winter’ is more imminent than ever before;

9) while some individual humans will of course pass through the Bottleneck, most humans, and their highly complex cultures, civilizations and societies will not;

[Plantagenet]

From the link: "An annual resource depletion rate of 15% gives one just ~6.6 years until the energy resource is, for all practical purposes, GONE!"

This initial assumption is almost certainly completely wrong. Please learn a bit about the Peak Oil theory. M. King Hubbert analyzed empirical data from actual oil fields and regional oil production histories and devised a clever way to predict the pattern of peak oil depletion after peak oil is reached. Hubbert's work (and all more recent analyses) indicate that its highly unlikely that all oil will be gone in six years after peak oil, especially as the peak apparently already occurred in late 2005 to 2006.

[roccman]

From the link: "An annual resource depletion rate of 15% gives one just ~6.6 years until the energy resource is, for all practical purposes, GONE!"

This initial assumption is almost certainly completely wrong. Please learn a bit about the Peak Oil theory. M. King Hubbert analyzed empirical data from actual oil fields and regional oil production histories and devised a clever way to predict the pattern of peak oil depletion after peak oil is reached. Hubbert's work (and all more recent analyses) indicate that its highly unlikely that all oil will be gone in six years after peak oil, especially as the peak apparently already occurred in late 2005 to 2006.

Ummmmm....the point Perry was making is... If there is no gas at your local gas station ...for all practical purposes it is GONE. You really should read a little more.

[Armageddon]

Economic collapse will happen before PO ever sets in. Way too much debt and no way to grow the economy to pay it back. And, there is no way to borrow anymore to keep the economy going. The game is over.

[Tyler_JC]

? None of this makes sense.

Analysis and Proofs: 1) Current “all liquids + NG” depletion rates running at 15% per annum (or more) means the effective end of the ready availability of cheap fossil-fueled energy resources (except some coal) in seven years or so, i.e. ~2014!

Based on what, exactly? The depletion rate of the North Sea oil fields? 4.5% depletion rate for existing fields is generally considered the norm. I'm not sure where this guy is getting figures nearly 3x the generally accepted average.

The loss of liquid fossil fuels will contemporaneously cause the loss of coal also. Think ‘trains’: Coal-hauling trains (in the U.S.) run on diesel fuel (not coal — or anything else). Trains haul coal from the mines to coal-fired electrical generating plants, in many cases, hundreds of miles from the mine mouth. Depleting oil production means less diesel fuel with which to run coal-hauling trains.

Not true. Diesel fuel will be redirected towards coal trains by market forces. Think about it.
1. Diesel becomes more expensive.
2. The least efficient uses of diesel will cease to be profitable.
3. Diesel fuel will be redirected towards the most efficient uses.
4. Transporting coal to produce electricity is and will continue to be highly profitable.

What could be more profitable in a world of ever-increasing electricity prices than producing more electricity? Rail road companies specializing in transporting coal to power plants will outbid everyone else and secure their supplies of fuel. The writer of that article either doesn't believe in the theory of economics or he doesn't understand what the heck he's talking about.

[Plantagenet]

Economic collapse will happen before PO ever sets in.

Peak oil may already have occurred. It seems to have happened in 2006 or possibly late 2005.

We've been living off "excess capacity" in terms of oil production, but the absolute peak of production, based on the numbers, seems to already be in the rear veiw mirror unless something unusual is going to happen with the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

[Armageddon]

Peak oil may already have occurred. It seems to have happened in 2006 or possibly late 2005. We've been living off "excess capacity" in terms of oil production, but the absolute peak of production, based on the numbers, seems to already be in the rear veiw mirror unless something unusual is going to happen with the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

I meant more like the slow down side of the curve of peak oil. I agree , we are past peak right now. But, in reality, the economic collapse is directly related to PO. I think the collapse will happen and the masses will never really know that PO was the reason.

[eastbay]

Peak oil may already have occurred. It seems to have happened in 2006 or possibly late 2005.

We've been living off "excess capacity" in terms of oil production, but the absolute peak of production, based on the numbers, seems to already be in the rear veiw mirror unless something unusual is going to happen with the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

You're right Plantagenet.

Armageddon, the catalyst for the collapse will definitely be PO, but with just about everything else falling into terminal depletion, PO thankfully just beat the others (water, food, metals, overshoot, etc...) to the punch.

Initially, the masses will generally have no idea why their economies are collapsing, as evidenced by the fact we're two years past and most are clueless. But in a fairly short period of time it will become obvious to even the most deluded. It's all about the oil running out.

[Armageddon]

Peak oil may already have occurred. It seems to have happened in 2006 or possibly late 2005. We've been living off "excess capacity" in terms of oil production, but the absolute peak of production, based on the numbers, seems to already be in the rear veiw mirror unless something unusual is going to happen with the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

You're right Plantagenet. Armageddon, the catalyst for the collapse will definitely be PO, but with just about everything else falling into terminal depletion, PO thankfully just beat the others (water, food, metals, overshoot, etc...) to the punch.
Initially, the masses will generally have no idea why their economies are collapsing, as evidenced by the fact we're two years past and most are clueless. But in a fairly short period of time it will become obvious to even the most deluded. It's all about the oil running out.

Somehow, something like the attack on Iran will obscure PO to the masses. I have heard people say thanks to Bush attacking Iraq, we no longer have $1.50 gasoline here in the US, and others saying we have lots of oil , we are just saving it for when the price is high enough. Or, it's a conspiracy by the oil companies. People just won't see the connection to PO.

[Angry_Chimp]

? Not true... Diesel fuel will be redirected towards coal trains by market forces. Think about it.
1. Diesel becomes more expensive.
2. The least efficient uses of diesel will cease to be profitable.
3. Diesel fuel will be redirected towards the most efficient uses.
4. Transporting coal to produce electricity is and will continue to be highly profitable.
What could be more profitable in a world of ever-increasing electricity prices than producing more electricity? Rail road companies specializing in transporting coal to power plants will outbid everyone else and secure their supplies of fuel. The writer of that article either doesn't believe in the theory of economics or he doesn't understand what the heck he's talking about.

This would make sense in a perfect world. If diesel is rationed away from the people one would also have to assume that gasoline at this time will need to be rationed and redirected also. With that sort of rationing going on one would have to assume that electricity will also be rationed and redirected by "market forces" also; i.e. those who can afford it and critical military and industrial operations needed to run the government (run by the plutocrats). Yes so the market forces will make sure energy will be allocated to the “necessary” areas.

But what the market forces can't fix is what is going to happen to all those cold hungry people that can no longer drive and afford electricity and food. What are the market forces going to do when these people realize everything they once had is being redirected to the plutocrats and the military that is policing the streets protecting the plutocrats. It won't take long to realize a giant red white and blue dick is being jammed in their ass and they will act appropriately by rioting and destroying all the infrastructure that was deemed critical by the market forces i.e. the PLUTOCRATS.

When fuel rationing and shortages kick in the “market” is history. Things will be enforced by brute force. The question is do the plutocrats have enough police and military to extend their power to maintain control.

[Tyler_JC]

You're talking about rationing, I'm talking about market forces. Market forces ration by price. Governments ration by some kind of coupon scheme. The two systems work very differently.

I'm merely arguing that the electrical grid is not nearly as oil dependent as people on this board believe it is. As for riotous mobs destroying the country...that's a variable I can't toss into an equation. If people do "go crazy" and burn down everything in sight, sure, we're screwed. But that's a big IF, in my humble opinion.

[Novus]

The only reason collapse won't happen because of PO is if climate change gets us first. This ongoing drought is threatening America's food supplies in ways most can hardly comprehend.

[Armageddon]

The only reason collapse won't happen because of PO is if climate change gets us first. This ongoing drought is threatening America's food supplies in ways most can hardly comprehend.

I could really see food shortages in the US in the near future rather easily.

[static66]

Hey Armageddon, whats up with your avatar? she is looking at me with those buffalo eyes.... I can't really concentrate on the end of Western Civilazation with her staring at me like that! I read this when it came out and thought it was fantastic... can you give me a timeline on the real shit hitting the fan? you seem to know what your talking about...

[Armageddon]

Hey Armageddon, whats up with your avatar? she is looking at me with those buffalo eyes.... I can't really concentrate on the end of Western Civilazation with her staring at me like that! I read this when it came out and thought it was fantastic... can you give me a timeline on the real shit hitting the fan? you seem to know what your talking about...

There are so many variables that can happen that can alter things. The economy is on the brink, and a recession / depression will slow oil demand majorly. What if the Neo-cons attack Iran ? What if Russia steps in ? What if the Neo-cons stage another false flag op before the Iran attack ? Marshall law will be implemented. This economy won't be able to withstand 90+ oil for very long. The banks have tightened the strings on loans, and we know the great depression was started by this. If people do not borrow, no money circulates. Here is a great animated 45 minute video on how our monetary system works. it's worth the time. http://video.google.de/videoplay?docid= ... 2583451279

[Armageddon]

But as far as a timeline ? Things are going quicker than I had originally thought. It just depends on what you mean by timeline. Timeline for what ? Food and gas rationing ? Civilization die off ? Armageddon ? The great tribulation as the bible speaks of ? The bible says the great tribulation will be the worst time in mankinds history, and that is right before armageddon. We were one good size hurricane in the GOM away from gas shortages this past summer. But then again, if things go smoothly, and there is not an attack on Iran, no major hurricanes, no staged terror event, things could go realitively smoothly for a couple more years. ( doubtful )

[Ayoob]

Bottom line. if LA gets nuked in the next two years I'm going to be pissed.

[greenworm]

The great tribulation as the bible speaks of ?

That’s great, it starts with an earthquake - REM
I'll hand it to the Christians, they finally got one right, they are still the lowest form of sheep regardless.

I don't think we collectively have too much time on this floating rock, so drink up monkeys, revel in the day, you never know when it will be your last. Well, some us do, but does it really matter?

[deMolay]

Back to the rationing line for a moment. A state is only a state as long as it can exude force upon someone or group of people. The military and the police will get first dibs on fuel, even before coal trains. I would worry more about getting sideswiped by the state collapsing than I would wandering gangs. Look at any recent countries that collapsed, look at any tribe, look at Hitler in ww2. They hang on a longtime sometimes. Sometimes even long enough to enslave people. The squeeze economically from the cost of energy will bring it on very quickly. When you start factoring in the new costs of energy in all it's forms into the bottomlines of corporation's things don't look so good. Never mind that there are Trillions of dollars of debt to be shook down out of the tree called Derivatives unto our backs yet. I give the economy 6 months at best.