[billp]

ohanian and Nicholai

You appear to try to insult non native english speaker with inane comments.

Not a good idea.

Better to try to listen to what they are saying.

Sorry vampyregirl.

bill

[vampyregirl]

i was contemplating the modern demand and how difficult it will be to supply it. people have been saying for 100 years we were running out of oil and every time an oil shortage panic came up new reserves were found and an oil glut developed. but now its different. it will be more difficult to supply the ever growing demand. perhaps i should have gone into more detail

[TonyPrep]

This needs no further comment:

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.

Oil May Fall on Reduced Refinery Demand, Survey Shows

[Gerben]

This needs no further comment:

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.

For those who do not understand: the direction is up or down. So there are two directions. Giving you 50% chance of a correct prediction if you choose randomly. In other words: their survey has 0 predictive value.

[sjn]

This needs no further comment:

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.

For those who do not understand: the direction is up or down. So there are two directions. Giving you 50% chance of a correct prediction if you choose randomly. In other words: their survey has 0 predictive value.

While it is very amusing; you are in error: There are 3 possible states up, down and no change.

[BrazilianPO]

This needs no further comment:

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.

Oil May Fall on Reduced Refinery Demand, Survey Shows

It is really amazing how people are even paid to write such idiotic comments. No wonder the economy is in such a bad shape. If those are the experts, God help us! That is a joke!

The skills shortage must be really bad. That is the only reason I see for Bloomberg to hire types like this. Society is broken. Education is broken. This is just sad. Today it looks like it is cool to be dumb.

Sorry for the rant, but I am really pis*ed!

[Homesteader]

This needs no further comment:

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.

For those who do not understand: the direction is up or down. So there are two directions. Giving you 50% chance of a correct prediction if you choose randomly. In other words: their survey has 0 predictive value.

While it is very amusing; you are in error: There are 3 possible states up, down and no change.

Gerben said two directions, not states. The survey was the direction of futures. Not much of a future in futures trading if you bet prices are going to stay the same. He is correct.

[pup55]

Even worse, prices have not been random.

All you would have had to do is guess "up" every week since the beginning of 2004, and you would have been right 57% of the time.

[TonyPrep]

The skills shortage must be really bad. That is the only reason I see for Bloomberg to hire types like this. Society is broken. Education is broken. This is just sad. Today it looks like it is cool to be dumb.

Bloomberg doesn't hire these "experts", they just survey them. The "experts" are, presumably, those giving investment advice.

These paragon's of the market system don't appear to understand market fundamentals, when it comes to oil (if supply - aka production - can't meet demand, the price goes up). I guess it is yet another example of denial.

In a rational world, one would expect that such a survey would now be discontinued. In 4 years, it has been no better or worse than tossing a coin. So they should save time and effort, and report a coin toss. "Our coin toss has guessed correctly in 50.01% of the time since we introduced it in April 2008."

[bonehead]

I love this one:"Natural gas futures follow crude higher."Nothing about supply and demand,it goes up just because it's cheaper than oil and there's some real profit potential.It's like their saying that it's too much of a bargain and we're getting off too easy.Energy markets are a joke,every day they're trading more oil than is out there.You can make money on fictitious barrels of oil.

[Peleg]

Feds watching oil futures for signs of price manipulation

Avoiding the underlying issue which most here believe had lead to the run up in price of oil, some members of Congress and government agencies are watching the futures markets and making rule changes to ensure that the price of oil is not inflated.

This type of market intervention has to be handled with a very even hand since the one thing no one wants to see is a defacto price cap that fails to allow needed price rises to manifest in the face of scarcity. This would ensure that shortages emerge sooner rather than later. As hard as it is to face, prices must be allowed to rise as demand growth outstrips supply growth or shortages will amost certainly be the result. Some are still holding their breath for a supply surge. Maybe? Instead of trying to subsidize the cost of gas which is already running us 600 billion dollars per year, Congress must be willing to move quickly to re-develop mass transit, in my opinion, and increase cafe standards as fast as possible, and make a massive effort to increase wind and solar power, be careful with biofuels because of the knock on effects in the commodities markets.

I take this news of investigation in the market very seriously in light of the recent awakening to this website. I am awaiting the promised report in November on the world's major fields spoken of by Matt Simmons being done by the IEA(or is it the EIA?) Who can keep track?

My concern is that the publicity this site is now receiving, spiking up to 40k hits per day with a reach to some four million visitors per year, means we too have to be careful about our stated facts.

We may find that we are no longer viewed as just another group of conspiracy theorists as most of our price predictions for the last three years have been right (relatively speaking)

Just wondering what some of you think of this. If the grassroots part of peak oil is completed, the message is out, now we need to get with our legislators who are being forced to deal, and come behind the efforts of dedicated professionals.

Just some thoughts. I know that the intent of most of the people here has been to deal with a very difficult issue both personally, and to make sure that the word does get out so the country has a chance to mitigate the impacts of this.

I was not impressed with Jim Cramer calling Hirsch an alarmist the other day for predicting $12 gasoline and then shortages. Robert Hirsch in my mind has as much if not more credibility on this issue than anyone.

Where are we at people? If people are coming here for investment advice and we don't realize it, we could be contributing to a price bubble, or the other way around. The point is without that official report in our hands about the supply data for those 250 major fields we also are speculating and inferrring from scant data.

...

I think we have the attention of enough people now that things need to shift gears here. I am hoping that Aaron Wissner's Conference in Michigan will get picked up by the national news. In case you have not heard here is part of the e-mail I received.

The deadline for presentation proposals for "The International
Conference on Peak Oil & Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability" is
March 31. The conference begins in the on Friday, May 30 and runs
through Sunday, June 1, 2008. The location is the Calvin College Fine
Arts Center in Grand Rapids, Michigan, USA. Presentations are needed
for
both break out seminars and main stage topics.

International authors and speakers include Richard Heinberg, Dr. David
Goodstein, Megan Quinn Bachman, Julian Darley, Stephanie Mills and Pat
Murphy. Featured speakers include U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, Mayor George
Heartwell, Sharon Astyk, Ann Woiwode, Chris Bedford, Tom Richter, Tim
Hudson, Aaron Wissner, Tom Stanton, Kurt Cobb, Dr. Olaf Lidums, Dr.
Linda Schweitzer, Christina Snyder, Cynthia Price, Mark Baeur and
Thaddeus Owen. Fifty break out seminars focus on sustainability topics
including transportation, food security, environment, renewable energy,

community education, and conservation.

The event is hosted by educator Aaron Wissner and his Local Future
nonprofit organization. Wissner was featured in January on the front
page of the Wall Street Journal for his peak oil education and
preparation efforts. The Post Carbon Institute is a primary conference
sponsor.

Since then he has gotten some other luminaries to speak. On the sidelines of ASPO last year Boone was saying peak is here. Simmons is out in the eye saying it, Hirsch, Heinberg. This report due in November about the state of so many fields is supposed to fill in gaps in the data and to my mind is very big.

I am at the point where the politics of all this are not so interesting to me anymore. I am what they call a primevel soup guy. I nurture issues I think are important and have discussions about them then my gifting is done. I wrote to Senator Sanders and told him to choose to invest in efficiency and public transit rather than trying to tax and cap. I'm not sure he agreed. And that is'nt to say that the US could not get along for a long time with subsidies, the farmers have enjoyed that protection for a very long time. I just think it is better to let the prices rise and make sure the door is open for innovation and funding to find the future of American energy and transportation if there is going to be one.

So, it is my sense that I will not be involved in peak oil as an issue in 2009. We all have our giftings, I have cleared my conscience of this as a policy issue that I am obligated to. I have done what this one man can do and now I can only watch and see what the American people will do with it.

I will pray the best, God's best, which is by far the best anyone can hope for. This issue is in a transitional stage right now, by January a new paradigm will begin and new leaders will join those already in the public eye. What will happen then I do not know for sure. I appreciate all of you whackos, the folks I agree with and the ones I don't. You have all shown alot of courage taking this issue on, handling it in your personal life and even daring to share it when you knew the masses would not listen. That type of courage is something to be proud of and I am sure it will serve you well in the future.

See you guys around. Good work.

[patience]

For myself, with no interest in the farce of politics, I put my efforts into educating those close to me. An old adage from skilled trades is, "each one, teach one". It's not enough to deal with the problem, but it is all I can do.

[Cashmere]

[simontay78]

Market Oracle
Crude Oil Crisis Coming to an End?

Concerning the Peak Oil myth, here's what noted economist Ed Yardeni recently had to say on the topic: “The peak oil hysteria may have triggered a short-covering rally by commercial accounts, i.e., hedgers, who couldn't take any more margin calls or couldn't stand the pain of being locked into prices of $100 or less. While all this has been happening, the oil market ignored rapidly mounting evidence that prices between $100-$150 rather than $150-$200 may be starting to dampen demand and boost supply.”

Yardeni also points out that Russia is cutting taxes on its oil industry to boost investment in new fields and increase oil production. Brazil continues to find more oil offshore in the Santos Basin, which could end up being what he describes as a “contiguous megadeposit” of crude oil. He also points out that “Congress may start considering ending longstanding bans on domestic drilling including overturning moratoriums that limit offshore drilling and accelerating leasing of federal lands (5/23 WSJ).”

Any observer of the history of commodity bull markets will notice that every time a major commodity establishes a long-term rising trend, the stories in the popular press are always “bent to fit the head” of the prevailing trend. The so-called Peak Oil Theory is no exception. What history also teaches is that sooner or later, supply has a way of coming out of the most mysterious cracks and crevices. When it does, it invariably spoils the party for the perma-bulls, who foolishly envision a never-ending rise in the price of their favorite commodity.

Once the oil price comes down and brings gasoline prices down with it, consumer will have a lot less to worry about and economic activity will increase. Another “oil crisis” will be behind us and the markets will have one less thing to worry about.

Hi Clif Droke,

Are you predicting a oil bubble bursting and it going back to USD$50 per barrel or below $100?

Conventional crude oil discovery had peaked some 40 years back and the peak of oil production of major oil fields in the world includes, Indonesia (just pulled out of OPEC), Kuwait, USA (way back), UK (North Sea), Mexico, Russia (Recently declared), Saudi (very likely) and many others.

Tar sands in Canada & Venezuela requires huge amount of energy (Natural Gas or Nuclear or others) to boil the sand and lot's of water. The cost of extractions may be well above oil and production speed is not as fast.

Lot's of other oil fields now is of poor quality high toxic sulfur content and expensive to refine them hence unpopular to many countries.

Brazil's oil fields may not come online fast enough to curb depletion rate of the global peak oil scenario and hardly enough to curb global oil increasing demand.

Yes, I do agreed with you the oil price will eventually comes back down (from $500?) when there is a major "demand destruction" event such as a great depression or major war involving the world. Both events are not an ideal solutions to this "energy crisis" aka "Peak Oil".

p.s. Anyone here can go in and comment in Market Oracle?

[threadbear]

Unfortunately, too many people are either in the speculation camp, or the pure peak camp. They don't see it's a combination of both. Give them time. There's no way price per barrel is going to go down below 85.00 or 90.00 per barrel. Those days are gone.

[TheDude]

What history also teaches is that sooner or later, supply has a way of coming out of the most mysterious cracks and crevices.

"Life as you knew it has ended."

[SoylentGreen]

Oil started going crazy in '04, it didnt just go straight up. it zigged and dipped a little bit now and then. Just wait a month or so when the 1st Hurricaine hits the Gulf of Mexico in July.

[DantesPeak]

The article message is a little muddled - are they saying oil is just too high because of speculation or that some production may come on line 5 or 10 years from now, and the price should be lower now because we might get some more oil in the future?

They should take a look at US imports instead. What does it matter if Russia or Brazil is increasing reserves, maybe, and increasing production, maybe, if it isn't sold and delivered to importers such as the US?

These denial stories are getting so bad that maybe they should go straight to the Hall of Flames forum.

[ROCKMAN]

A more direct indication of your point Dante: Mexico just announced a lowering of it's estimated average export to the US for 2008 - 180,000 bopd less. And that's the daily average for the year which means second half production will be even less than 180,000 bo short. Mexican authorities offered lower than anticipated production from Cantarell Field as the cause. I won't beleive until I see real production numbers in 6 months or so but the word on the street in Houston is that decline at Cantarell Fld has jumped to 50%/year. This will squeeze the Gulf Coast refiners even harder as they can't handle the sour crude that may be on the market to offset the Mexican drop.

[Dreamtwister]

I actually had to right click on that image to see if you were making some sort of commentary, or if that was actually a sample of the latest oil "mega discovery".