Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 23:19:15

Jevons' Paradox at work.

EU electricity consumption grows despite efficiency drive: report

Despite measures to improve energy efficiency and curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Europe, a study has found that these efforts are being outstripped by the growing economy where electricity is more and more in demand....


Not only growing, but "supersized".

The increase of energy consumption can be explained by the widespread use of traditional appliances such as dishwashers and air conditioners, as well as 'the increased number of double or triple appliances, mainly TVs and refrigerators/freezers in households, and the general increase in single family houses and larger houses and apartments', states the report. [/quote]

The same thing we did in the US following the efficiency gains of the 1980's; bigger houses, more lighting, two refrigerators, SUV's, etc.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby rumspringa » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 15:19:53

A new book on Jevons' Paradox is coming out soon:

Jevons' Paradox and the Myth of Resource Efficiency Improvements
By John M. Polimeni, Kozo Mayumi, Mario Giampietro and Blake Alcott
NOT YET PUBLISHED

Hardback £65.00 ISBN: 1844074625 / 9781844074624
Publication Date: January 2008
192 pages

I posted the publisher's blurb on the Book/Media Reviews forum a while back. It's expensive so you might want to have your local library borrow it for you once it's published.
<i>No rights without duties, no duties without rights.</i> -- IWA, 1864
User avatar
rumspringa
News Editor
News Editor
 
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun 20 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Iowa

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby JPL » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 18:56:03

One of the things that disconvivulates me about this place at the moment, is the fact that you can spend all day thinking about a topic, post your careful thoughts up, and then nobody responds. Not even to say that you are wrong, because of this, this, and that.

Hello, tap tap on the monitor, is anybody out there???

JPL
JPL
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1264
Joined: Sat 18 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Off with the Fey Folk

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 19:20:11

JPL wrote:One of the things that disconvivulates me about this place at the moment, is the fact that you can spend all day thinking about a topic, post your careful thoughts up, and then nobody responds. Not even to say that you are wrong, because of this, this, and that.

Hello, tap tap on the monitor, is anybody out there???

JPL


This stuff requires critical thinking. Your post about inflation to fight Jevons' Paradox is close to the mark, I think.

With each increase in efficiency, the price inflates.

I like to think of it like this:

If the efficiency increases 10%, you remove available supply 10%.

100 units of energy with 10% applied efficiency = 110 units.

Thus, you remove the 10 units from the available supply.

The question is do you subtract it from 100 or 110?

I think from 100, resulting in a supply of 90 units.

Remember, the goal is to reduce over all energy use, not gain or stay even.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 01:58:27

Wait, what? Free market? I mean, I suppose this is great as an exercise, but there are no free markets I know of we could apply any results or conclusions we draw from it to. ;)
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby gg3 » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 14:18:48

Key question:

Monte, do you already have an answer in mind and you're trying to get us to thik it through to see if we come to a convergent conclusion? Or are you starting with no answer in mind and trying to get us to go at it until we come up with something we'll all recognize is viable?

---

Whoever it was who suggested "walking away from civilization": That's neoprimitivism, see also Jason Godesky at www.anthropik.com, who makes some very intelligent arguements for that position. Problem is, unless everyone does it, all you get are some tribes that can easily be treated in the same manner as other nonindustrial tribes, which is to say, wiped out; with the exception of tribes that are sufficiently militarily skillful as to be able to successfully defend themselves from outside invasion. Lengthy digression omitted here to save space....

---

I tend to side with "relocalization" and "deliberate inflation."

The deliberate inflation strategy has an important practical limitation, which is that it requires an entity with suffcient wealth to engage in diachronic (across-time) competition on behalf of the future.

Also the fact that the resources are running down, so even with increased conservation in the conventional sense, if someone else "tries" to use up the surplus, it won't matter because every year there is less and less to use up. The conservers end up ahead of the wasters because the conservers have become progressively more resilient (learning how to make do with less: adapting in the darwinian sense) whereas the wasters have become progressively less resilient (failing to gain practice at adapting).

Also climate change is going to put a lid on it for us whether we like it or not, speaking of demand destruction, a near-extinction event will do a darn good job of that.

---

Re. Escher's visual paradox: However, the illusion of growth still feeds the idea that growth is possible and even good.

Whereas, in reality, growthism is the cancer that has to be killed off mercilessly.

In the end there are only limited resources, so all of economics ultimately reduces to the question of distributing slices of a pie that is of fixed size. What you end up with is zero overall growth, but shifts in the relative size of different elements or individuals or sectors within the economy. This year X grows by "n" amount, but Y and Z each contract by "1/2n + q" where "q" is entropic loss. Or X contracts by n, and Y and Z each grow by 1/2n - q. So long as you can prevent accumulations of heredetary wealth to the point where they jam the system, you can keep this going.

---

"There are no free markets" only means, there are no physical systems of interaction among humans that are as frictionless (lacking entropy) as the process of thought itself.

All markets operate within rule-sets, and all rule-sets limit the "freedom" of a subset of the potential actors within the market. After all, Ford and GM don't compete by blowing up each others' factories.

Thus, the practical extent of a free market is one that is based on a Kantian rule-set: rules that are established as universals, rather than as arbitrary expedients selectively applied on behalf of interest groups or subsets of the whole.

At its core, a (Kantian) free market only requires that producers have freedom of enterprise (the freedom to start business entities and manage them by their own principles for their own goals), and that consumers have the freedom to buy from the producers of their choice.

Nowhere is there a requirement that any given producer or consumer must be able to derive a net advantage or net gain: merely that they have the opportunity to do so based on their smarts, strengths, and so on. That is, you have the right to engage in cooperation, competition, and symbioses, but you are not guaranteed a successful outcome.

---

That's all I have time to go into at the moment, I'll be back later (this evening).
User avatar
gg3
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3271
Joined: Mon 24 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: California, USA

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby JPL » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 14:22:24

MonteQuest wrote:
JPL wrote:One of the things that disconvivulates me about this place at the moment, is the fact that you can spend all day thinking about a topic, post your careful thoughts up, and then nobody responds. Not even to say that you are wrong, because of this, this, and that.

Hello, tap tap on the monitor, is anybody out there???

JPL


This stuff requires critical thinking. Your post about inflation to fight Jevons' Paradox is close to the mark, I think.

With each increase in efficiency, the price inflates.

I like to think of it like this:

If the efficiency increases 10%, you remove available supply 10%.

100 units of energy with 10% applied efficiency = 110 units.

Thus, you remove the 10 units from the available supply.

The question is do you subtract it from 100 or 110?

I think from 100, resulting in a supply of 90 units.

Remember, the goal is to reduce over all energy use, not gain or stay even.


Cheers Monte

Yea in my mind there is a link: Inflation = Demand Destruction

It's a blunt and scary tool to use but unlike voluntary curbs or taxes, once it's in the system, no-one could avoid it (grin).

There's a brilliant 1996 study of historical inflation by a guy called David Hackett, called 'The Great Wave - Price Revolutions and the Rythm of History'. Anyone here read it?

JP
JPL
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1264
Joined: Sat 18 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Off with the Fey Folk

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 14:44:00

gg3 wrote:Key question:

Monte, do you already have an answer in mind and you're trying to get us to thik it through to see if we come to a convergent conclusion? Or are you starting with no answer in mind and trying to get us to go at it until we come up with something we'll all recognize is viable?


A little of both. I think my previous post is close to what I am thinking.

We have to cancel the gains of efficiency by removing them from the market. This forces us to powerdown and reduces overall consumption while increasing available stock of a diminishing resource.

Remember, the only truly sustainable economy is one that is in constant decline, or more realistically, one that is always striving to use less.

The ol' constant entropy battle.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 15:02:52

MonteQuest wrote:
JPL wrote:One of the things that disconvivulates me about this place at the moment, is the fact that you can spend all day thinking about a topic, post your careful thoughts up, and then nobody responds. Not even to say that you are wrong, because of this, this, and that.

Hello, tap tap on the monitor, is anybody out there???

JPL


This stuff requires critical thinking. Your post about inflation to fight Jevons' Paradox is close to the mark, I think.

With each increase in efficiency, the price inflates.

I like to think of it like this:

If the efficiency increases 10%, you remove available supply 10%.

100 units of energy with 10% applied efficiency = 110 units.

Thus, you remove the 10 units from the available supply.

The question is do you subtract it from 100 or 110?

I think from 100, resulting in a supply of 90 units.

Remember, the goal is to reduce over all energy use, not gain or stay even.




From a political standpoint how will this be implemented? Voluntarily? By force? Do we need substantial negative effects of overshoot (die-off, etc) as an antecedent to action?
User avatar
firestarter
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sun 19 Mar 2006, 04:00:00

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 23 Jul 2007, 16:00:15

firestarter wrote: From a political standpoint how will this be implemented?


It won't be. Which is why Jevons' Paradox prevents us from using conservation and efficiency to mitigate peakoil.

We should learn to conserve and we should learn to be more efficient, but it isn't going to help unless we stop consuming what we save or gain.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby gg3 » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 07:45:55

OK, I think I see where this is going. Monte, is this what you're looking for:

In essence the solution is to use surplus wealth to "invest in the future" by buying up resources but not using them.

For a radically oversimplified example: You cut back driving by let's say 2/3. But instead of allowing others to buy up that extra gas you've saved, you spend the same amount of money as you did before, and 2/3 of that money goes into a fund that is used to "lock up" the oil that would have produced that additional gasoline. So you're using 2/3 less gas than before, but the difference is simply not produced, rather than being produced and bought by someone else.

At present there's no way for the average person to do this for all relevant cases. You can do what Al Gore does and buy carbon credits and keep them off the market, but you can't do likewise for every resource you are conserving. Yet.

At present, business entities and wealthy individuals can probably find more ways to accomplish this, since they have acces to financial mechanisms that require larger unit-sizes of investment. For example a special fund could be put together to buy out oil wells and take them out of production, or to buy up water rights and take the water off the market. Participating in this type of activity wouldn't require a "Bill Gates fortune," just a net worth that qualifies an individual as a sophisticated investor under SEC rules. Last time I checked, that was net worth of $100k or greater, which is in the range of American upper middle class with decent equity in one's home.

So now consider the following as a social movement among privately-held businesses and wealthy individuals: voluntary simplicity combined with investment in those financial mechanisms to sequester resources. Eventually it becomes accessible to average people, as the relevant financial mechanisms are packaged into smaller unit-sizes of investment, so everyone can get involved.

This also translates to business opportunities.

For example, set up a corporation to run a gas station, charge $8 per gallon, and put the difference between that and the present market price of gas (approx. $3.25 in the Oakland California area at present) into buying carbon credits or sequestering oil wells.

Who would buy gas at that deliberately inflated price? The same market niche that presently buys other products that have a price premium for sustainability, business ethics, and so on. This niche already has a track record supporting such things as Working Assets Long Distance, organically produced locally grown foods, paper products made from recycled paper stock, fair trade coffee and cocoa, and so on.

Businesses could do likewise, and the expenses are tax deductible. For example, a company buys coffee to serve in its break room, and gets a writeoff for it as part of "office expenses." If the company buys fair trade coffee, it also gets a writeoff even if the cost is higher.

So: For example, at present my company writes off vehicle mileage to client sites at a standard IRS rate per mile. But there is also the option of taking a writeoff for the actual costs of running the vehicle: gas, oil, tires, repairs, etc. (most companies use the standard per-mile writeoff because it's simpler to keep track of). If we use the "itemized deduction" method, we can write off the actual cost of my hypothetical $8 per gallon gasoline. And if we're reducing miles driven per month (for example by using modem dialup to do routine service on clients' PBXs), we can afford the higher price per gallon: my increased efficiency using the dialup modems, instead of going into our bottom line profit, can in part be allocated to paying the higher price for gas just as if we was paying a lower price per gallon and driving more miles. Instead of lots of miles driven at lower cost per mile, we'd be paying the same amount of money for fewer miles driven at higher cost per mile, and either way the amount of the tax deduction is the same.

This works for us because we're privately held: we can take the decision internally to operate that way and we're not depriving external shareholders (there aren't any) of increased return on investment. Any closely-held corporation could do the same thing if the shareholders (a small group of external investors) took the decision to direct the management to do it.

A publicly-traded corporation would have a hard time doing it because its board of directors would have to convince a majority of shareholders, and at that point deal with a disgruntled minority who would have preferred to keep their efficiency savings as profits. However, over time, if this form of "market-based powerdown strategy" became popular, it would become a significant element in public relations and marketing, so publicly-traded corporations might feel obligated to do it at least to a degree (frankly I don't think we have time for that to occur on its own, but in theory it is at least possible).

Now consider a similar case for a large range of products and services. For example, a bottled water company that charges a premium price for bottled water and uses the difference to sequester water sources. For example, going outside one's own company's product category entirely: the "world price" gas station investing in sequestering water, the "world price" bottled water company investing in sequestering oil wells, and everyone buying up carbon credits like they're gold coins.

Now here's something about market psychology: When people pay a high price for something, they tend to believe they are getting higher value for money than with a lower-priced product or service. This is also an element in brand loyalty for premium-priced brands. So with the right branding and marketing, it can actually work. Look to existing premium-priced brands for examples and strategies, though keep in mind that this is not easy to "get" by simple emulation: it requires a fairly comprehensive understanding of the brand psychology of one's market segment.

And now comes the hard part:

Carbon credits and certain niche cases are presently available as routes for buying and sequestering resources and ecological impacts. However this has hardly become a universal market for all relevant cases of resources and impacts.

What is needed in order to make all of this work, is to "make a market" (in the technical sense) for each relevant case of resources or ecological impacts. This is outside my expertise and experience, so I'll stop here and I'm intrested in feedback and suggestions from people with relevant background .
User avatar
gg3
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3271
Joined: Mon 24 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: California, USA

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby JPL » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 19:22:02

gg3 wrote:And now comes the hard part:

Carbon credits and certain niche cases are presently available as routes for buying and sequestering resources and ecological impacts. However this has hardly become a universal market for all relevant cases of resources and impacts.

What is needed in order to make all of this work, is to "make a market" (in the technical sense) for each relevant case of resources or ecological impacts. This is outside my expertise and experience, so I'll stop here and I'm intrested in feedback and suggestions from people with relevant background .


Hi gg3

(We meet again - grin)

Interesting ideas. I'll come back to them in a sec.

What I was suggesting with my 'inflate' answer is not that it's the best solution, rampent inflation is a ruddy nightmare, but it's the only one that I think would work in this context, given the limited control that central banks actually have over the 'real' economy.

Let me give an example, one damn awful problem that I had to deal with today. We have a small flock of chickens and the cockeral (who is supposed to look after them) has recently gone 'psyco'. Last night he had me (alpha male!) pinned behind a door hitting him with a stick whilst the wife tried to get the kids into cover.

This-morning, woke up, had coffee, went to see mate down the road, borrowed a small-calibre shotgun, but due to a slight logistical problem, only came back with two cartridges. (Should not be a problem though, it's only a damn chicken!)

The reason for the gun was quite simple, I cannot wring the damn birds neck if he is trying to claw my testicles out at the same time.

Leaned over the fence, first cartridge took the bird in the side, damn, broke it's wing, feathers took most of the shot, shot it again in a panic, hit the tail, bird still alive.

Plan B now rolls out. Run to wood shed, grab axe, grimace and chop bird 3 times across neck. Done.

Dig big hole (too peppered to eat and besides we only keep the birds for eggs - I'm a bit squemish) have coffee & go back to get bird.

Then the damn thing looks at me & it's still alive! I feel really sick now because it was an hour ago it was first shot (and has been in agony in the meantime).

Plan C: Go BACK to shed, SHARPEN axe (used to split oak for the last six months, no-wonder it was blunt) & finally, sever neck.

What a fuck-up. Trying to be 'kind' to the bird actually caused far more pain than if I'd just chopped it to start with.

Anyhow. Back to the economy & the issue of reducing consumption. To use my 'bad chicken' analogy - IMHO we have got to use a solution that works, and has been proven to work. We can't just hitting the thing with blunt axes & ill-aimed guns & hope it will somehow keel over painlessly.

I think your idea about people 'buying into less' is a good one, & I'd sign up tomorrow, but I'm not sure everyone else would. Sigh... (BTW: Have you ever read J P Satre? It's a bit dated now but his 'Nausia' -about the difference between the way cultured, intelligent people would like the world to be, and the way is really is - is very pertinent to this kind of debate - pleuggh...)

I think global war is another possible solution (shudder) but again, that seems to be just the equivalent of my running for the blunt axe in the shed, rather than really thinking about things.

So... Jevon's paradox is a total nightmare for the right-minded 'peeps' around here & I think Monte is right to bring it up again although I wish he hadn't.

Which brings us back to our bright, shiny, ready to go axe in the shed, that we should have used all along. I still say it's 'inflation' & I'm only saying that 'cos I really can't think of anything else (cue: shock, horror).

JP
JPL
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1264
Joined: Sat 18 Mar 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Off with the Fey Folk

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 21:10:17

SpringCreekFarm wrote:I'm going to offer up one of those answers that just comes to mind. My gut feeling says...

How about not conserving? How about using what is left to build an infrastructure of some sort reliant on electricity to help alleviate the pains of dieoff. This can all be done while powering down. Along with the electrical infrastructure buildup, we also build up a very efficient mass transit system to take us to key places around the country ( continent ). I say make efficiency work in our favour. Whatever we save we put back into a system that is renewable. All the while we try to reprogram people to powerdown and depopulate and perhaps we go so far as to mandate it. Any thoughts? Is this thinking naive?


I have a simpler solution...why not raise interest rates to extreme levels and plunge ourselves into a brutal depression, coupled with a permanent embargo on Chinese imports, to crash their economy as well? It'd force consumption downward probably much faster than the rate of natural decline, the fertility rate would probably fall through the floor (especially with $5000 payments for voluntary sterilization and tax disincentives for having more than one child and so on), and we'd be able to drag the rest of the global economy down with us to boot. :twisted:

The government then could implement alternating cycles of inflation (massive infrastructure spending for hydrocarbon-free infrastructure + temporary relief programs) and deflation (currency crash / debt default, a la Argentina) to keep the economy and resource consumption on a forever-declining trend. And Fox news can keep on blaming those "damned terrorists" and whatever else they can dream up...LOL.

God forbid the sheeple should know the actual truth, huh.
User avatar
Byron100
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 973
Joined: Thu 08 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 16:05:52

I suppose I will reprise my earlier post, as it was obviously one or more illogical, logical, naive and/or too wise for a reply:
Pops wrote:I guess I am thinking Jevon works to my advantage – the more folks conserve and the lower the price pressure; the easier it is for me.

Conserve away, ride your bike or drive your Pirus and keep tapping away. By doing so you reduce demand and keep the price of energy down…

Why care about Jeavon if the theory works to your advantage in a micro sense? Any macro attempt at conservation only leads to a decrease in price in a free market; makes sense.

But markets won’t always be free - I’ll bet on that. So use this time to get out of the market. There will be a time when you won’t be able to get oil at any price.

So again, you can’t save the world as the OPer has intimated 10k times, it is a scientific fact; we are the same as pond scum.

But you might be able to save your genes, try getting your scummy butt to the edge of the pond.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby Aimrehtopyh » Thu 26 Jul 2007, 16:02:20

MonteQuest wrote:
How can you limit consumption and prohibit more efficiency gains?


How about abolishing patent and copyright protection while retracting all government funding for education of any kind.

Arguably these measures would make the market "freer" since the flow of information would then be dictated by market forces. The main aim would be to squash demand and put the brakes on innovation/efficiency/conservation since they are a mis-investment anyway. You could even use all that extra money to stockpile oil like a madman.

Research spending would wink out of existence forcing your brightest people to leave the country almost immediately. With no public schools the workforce/populace would get inexorably dumber with every passing year.

Foreign investment and trade would shrink rapidly, reducing our ability to import. You could offset this for a while by using Mister JPLs inflation strategy (but everyone knows that all fiat currencies are doomed anyway).

JPL wrote:
...would work best if the early inflationary period was hidden from the markets (for obvious reasons). A clever central bank would initally have to do stuff like massage down 'real' inflation figures and drop stuff like M3 reporting.

Pure gold.

Until the happy day when your indigenous population degrades to the level of purblind serfs you could dilute any remaining native talent by simply opening your borders to anyone who can walk and pick carrots.

Put the kibosh on funding for the interstate highway system. Then take control of the railroads using your "wartime powers" and purposely screw them up really bad. "Oops, I didn't know JP-8 would do that to a diesel!"

This should cripple long-distance and interstate trade for quite a while, forcing localization efforts into overdrive.

All this self-inflicted pain makes me think of the flagellants. those were the medieval guys who would pay pennance to god by whipping themselves bloody just so they could avoid The Plague (which they thought was divine retribution).
"He who makes no mistakes isn't trying hard enough" Genghis Khan
"Everyone here is bribed not to kill each other." foodnotlawns
Coinflation.com
User avatar
Aimrehtopyh
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 375
Joined: Sat 18 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Minnesota, U.S.A.

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 27 Jul 2007, 20:35:45

Wha???

MonteQuest wrote:
aflurry wrote:I know we aren't supposed to be debating Jevons, but this seems fairly relevant, especially in light of the conclusions you seem to want to draw from this, that conservation plays no part in a solution.


Never said that it plays no part. The point is that the expected results are the opposite of what we want.


But you said just that, right here:

MonteQuest wrote:The bottom line here is that, under our current system of thinking and economics, conservation and efficiency gains are not part of the macro solution.


And again:

MonteQuest wrote:
aflurry wrote:(It's cute to say that the great depression was a case of imposed conservation....)


No one I know have ever said that.


Huh? Then what did you mean by this?

MonteQuest wrote:
aflurry wrote:I think there have probably been many observable efficiency gains, but very few genuine conservation gains. We have yet to know the effect of a genuine, sustained conservation effort.

Sure we do. We called it the Great Depression.


And again again:

MonteQuest wrote:
aflurry wrote:However, neither of these questions lead to the conclusion that you seem to be entertaining, which is that we should counter-intuitively burn it all with abandon, reversing the effects of Jevon's paradox, and thereby reducing overall consumption.


Nowhere, in my almost 10,000 posts on this site can you quote me saying anything remotely along those lines.


OK, I am going to give you a pass on this one because of the "LOL" at the end, but you did quite clearly say that Jevon's seems to lead to this conclusion in the first post of this very thread!

MonteQuest wrote:Seems that all gains must be directed at reducing efficiency????? LOL!


I'm just not sure i know how to talk about this when I seem to misunderstand everything you say.


If Jevon's observation were a true paradox, then the joke above would actually be the real solution. But it is not, it is only an apparent paradox. It is worth taking as a cautionary example. But as i said, it is a comment about efficiency, not conservation. It is only later interpretations that lump in conservation.

Consider this:

MonteQuest wrote:Conservation and capitalism (or the free market) are like oil and water; they do not mix.


Now if this is true, how could Jevon's paradox apply to conservation? The paradox is his observation of the way a free market reacted to efficiency gains. How can it be possible for the free market to react to conservation gains if conservation is incompatible with the free market?

However, the question of whether conservation and the free market are compatible is the right question. More progress will be made if we direct the discussion to precisely how the one interferes with the other, rather than just to say that they are paradoxically at odds with one another.

I am curious why you set the question as "how do we offset efficiency gains in the free market?" We aren't required to have either free market capitalism or some socialist conservation in their pure and undiluted forms. We have the ability to make compromises between the two. That's just a matter of politicking.

This is the closest thing i can find in your post about what exactly you are asking us to articulate:

MonteQuest wrote:We need to do the opposite.
We need to do less while having more.


I am not sure what you mean by the "having more" part. It seems like you could just have said "we need to do less - full stop."
I would only add to that, "not just for a while, but forever."

So what the hell is wrong with approaching it is a simple way?:

1. Do less yourself.
2. Look for ways to give other people incentive to do less. (via appropriate taxation and spending, education, diplomacy, treaties, all that difficult, messy stuff).
3. Keep doing it even after it looks like it is helping, unless you want the hoards to descend and gobble up your gains.
4. get a hobby so you have something to do with all of your free time.

It seems like your choices are limited. Try this approach, or as you said, reduce efficiency. Drive a gas guzzling car and hope that the converse of Jevon's paradox is true too:

"less efficiency will tighten supply, drive up prices, and cause people to use less than they otherwise would have."

See, I am just not confident enough in the conclusions drawn be people's use of Jevon's paradox to fly that flag.
User avatar
aflurry
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 824
Joined: Mon 28 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 03:09:41

aflurry wrote: But as i said, it is a comment about efficiency, not conservation. It is only later interpretations that lump in conservation.
Wikipedia agrees. And AFAIK, it was only about GB's production of coal at the time.
Wikipedia wrote:In economics, the Jevons Paradox is an observation made by William Stanley Jevons, who stated that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease
Wikipedia wrote:His fore-mentioned 1865 paper on the coming shortage of coal has gathered recent attention due to similarities to the Peak Oil concept. Some have criticized aspects of Peak Oil, pointing to The Coal Question as an early example of crying wolf over a coming energy shortfall which never materialized. Indeed, today there is plentiful coal on a global scale and although important, it no longer drives the modern economy, having been largely replaced by a newer technology, the use of petroleum. Petroleum could likewise be transplanted by another energy technlogy, given the proper market incentives. However, Jevons was only referring to Great Britain's production of coal - at the time the source of his country's economic advantage - not a global supply.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby bshirt » Sat 28 Jul 2007, 10:39:22

Aimrehtopyh wrote: With no public schools the workforce/populace would get inexorably dumber with every passing year.


Uhhh...they're getting dumber every year with public schools.

But of course keep throwing $$$ at them.
User avatar
bshirt
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 502
Joined: Sat 23 Dec 2006, 04:00:00

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 00:59:05

aflurry wrote:
Huh? Then what did you mean by this?

MonteQuest wrote:
aflurry wrote:I think there have probably been many observable efficiency gains, but very few genuine conservation gains. We have yet to know the effect of a genuine, sustained conservation effort.

Sure we do. We called it the Great Depression.


The effect of a sustained conservation is the same as sustained reduced economic activity.

MonteQuest wrote:Conservation and capitalism (or the free market) are like oil and water; they do not mix.


Now if this is true, how could Jevon's paradox apply to conservation? The paradox is his observation of the way a free market reacted to efficiency gains. How can it be possible for the free market to react to conservation gains if conservation is incompatible with the free market?


Same answer as my last one; conservation is reduced economic activity. On the scale needed, it would implode the economy.

I am curious why you set the question as "how do we offset efficiency gains in the free market?" We aren't required to have either free market capitalism or some socialist conservation in their pure and undiluted forms. We have the ability to make compromises between the two. That's just a matter of politicking.


And that is just what my question tries to elicit. What is the compromise?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How to offset Jevons' Paradox in a free market

Unread postby kaktus » Sun 29 Jul 2007, 13:58:55

Code: Select all
And that is just what my question tries to elicit. What is the compromise?


I can only think of three alternatives (except from doing nothing) to handle the failure of markets:
1 that EU and US together suddenly decides to effectively tax and/or to use quotas on the using up of natural resources (taxes on CO2 for example) and forces the rest to join.
2 a sort of war economy where the usage of resources are centrally planned on state level.
3 that the trend to secure resources by military means escalates so that those with money get what they want.

Perhaps alt 1 is so unlikely that one should work for alt 2? if one don't like alt 3 of course.
User avatar
kaktus
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed 06 Sep 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Stockholm

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests