[kiwichick]

the bit about total unsustainability sounds just a bit upsetting to me !

also the bit about temps. rising by up to 6%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

oh and the bit about production declining by at least 6 % BUGGER!!!!

[copious.abundance]

When IEA says, 'could be' we need to think, 'absolutely WILL be'.

If you say so!

... The world is not running short of oil or gas just yet.
The world’s total endowment of oil is large enough to support the projected rise in production beyond 2030 in the Reference Scenario. Estimates of remaining proven reserves of oil and NGLs range from about 1.2 to 1.3 trillion barrels (including about 0.2 trillion barrels of non-conventional oil). They have almost doubled since 1980. This is enough to supply the world with oil for over 40 years at current rates of consumption.Though most of the increase in reserves has come from revisions made in the 1980s in OPEC countries rather than from new discoveries, modest increases have continued since 1990, despite rising consumption. The volume of oil discovered each year on average has been higher since 2000 than in the 1990s, thanks to increased exploration activity and improvements in technology, though production continues to outstrip discoveries (despite some big recent finds, such as in deepwater offshore Brazil).

[TheDude]

Even that hinges on the 80s OPEC revisions being what they say they are. And it has nothing to do with short term concerns about meeting demand when it rebounds - those trillions of dollars the IEA says are necessary to keep declines down to 6.1%. Instead we see declines in investment, even in OPEC.

What are you advocating on a personal level anyway, OF2? Just keep on filling up, it will always be there? Shelves eternally stocked down through the decades? The American way of life truly is non-negotiable? I don't subscribe to scenarios of marauding hordes and burning cities, but neither do I think energy will continue to expand eternally with attendant low prices. Political and economic barricades will prevent that even in lieu of geologic/technical considerations.

[copious.abundance]

>>> Bloomberg <<<

OPEC, IEA Cut Forecasts for Oil Demand, Supply Amid Recession
By Alexander Kwiatkowski

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency and OPEC cut their 2009 forecasts for oil demand for a seventh month and reduced supply estimates as the global economic slump saps consumption as well as investment in new fields.

Both organizations see demand slumping by more than 1 million barrels a day this year. The Paris-based IEA, adviser to 28 nations, reduced its forecast to 84.4 million barrels a day, a decline of 1.25 million barrels from 2008. OPEC’s estimate dropped to 84.6 million barrels, down 1.01 million barrels.

“The demand collapse has been staggering, based on the whirlwind nature of the slump in the global economy,” the IEA said in its monthly oil report today. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which also released its monthly market analysis today, said the “dreadful” economic situation is causing the slide. The two groups usually produce their reports on different days.

[...]

[TonyPrep]

Supply is down to 83.9 mbpd, according to IEA estimates.

[copious.abundance]

Marketwatch

Global crude demand stuck in the doldrums, IEA says
By Mike Maynard
Last update: 9:16 a.m. EDT April 10, 2009

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Continuing what's been a trend this year for the Paris-based organization, the International Energy Agency again has revised lower its 2009 forecast for global oil demand. This time, the IEA said it's cutting its demand projection by 1 million barrels a day, down to daily consumption of 83.4 million barrels. This would be 2.4 million barrels a day less than demand at 2008 levels -- and put the pace of contraction near levels not seen since the early 1980s, the IEA said. Demand for the first three months of the year was "much lower than expected," the IEA added. Moreover, the IEA sees lower global crude-oil runs persisting into the third quarter, suggesting weak margins for refiners.

[eXpat]

The IEA warns of shortages - "The next oil crisis is coming"

A shortage of oil could trigger another global recession around 2013 – says the IEA. By 2010 the price will reach new highs.

The IEA in Paris is warning of a new, much more severe global economic crisis around 2013. The reason is that investments in oil from new projects are being cancelled by large oil companies. If demand starts increasing in 2010, the oil price could explode, fire up inflation and put global growth at risk.

"We are concerned, that oil companies are reducing their investment levels. When demand returns a supply shortage could appear. We are even predicting that this shortage could occur in 2013." Said Nobuo Tanaka, head of the IEA in an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

Oil reserves declining markedly

He is alarmed, because he has data that shows that the global oil supply capacity is declining and that oil reserves will likely be markedly reduced by 2013. The stronger oil demand will be in a recovery starting in 2010, especially in the US, China and India, the sooner the shortage will appear and strangle global growth.

According to the IEA, the oil price could then exceed the records achieved in the summer of 2008 and reach $200 per barrel. "We could be steering into a new crisis which could be greater than the current crisis", said Mr. Tanaka. "That is why we are warning oil companies to invest", said Mr. Tanaka. Despite billions in profits in the prior year, oil companies are cancelling their investments because at the current price of $40, they are barely profitable.

The investment levels are already down 25% from a year ago. The OPEC countries are reducing production, because they do not see sufficient demand. Of 130 large oil projects, 35 have been frozen by February, said OPEC general secretary Abdullah al-Badri.

The investments however, are necessary to meet demand when it starts picking up again. This is not a matter of oil running out, but IEA studies prove that the oil produced from 580 of the largest 800 fields is declining.
...
Unfortunately, he has found that because of the global economic crisis, investments in renewable energy and nuclear power are declining. If additional measures are not undertaken however against global warming, and the CO2 emissions continue their step upward trajectory, this will lead to warming of six degrees centigrade by the end of the century. "This would be a disaster", said Tanaka. Then the northern German city of Hanover would be a warm as Marrakech today.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48582

[kiwichick]

580 of the largest 800 oilfields are declining in production

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


72.25% in decline

these are all the big fields

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<

Oil demand to post sharpest fall since 1981 - IEA
Thursday May 14 2009

LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - World oil demand this year will post the sharpest annual decline since 1981 as the economy struggles to bounce back, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

Demand will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, the IEA, which advises 28 industrialised countries, said in a monthly report. It previously forecast demand would fall by 2.4 million bpd this year.

Oil market fundamentals remained weak and a rise in oil prices, which hit $60 a barrel for the first time in six months on Tuesday, was due to sentiment rather than evidence of higher consumption, the agency said.

"The oil price seems to have moved a bit higher in the past month largely on the basis of equity markets and sentiment about potential economic recovery," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.

[...]

[kiwichick]

iea ups burn forecast

iea decreases production forecasts

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<

IEA Cuts 5-Year World Oil Demand Outlook on Economy
By Alexander Kwiatkowski and Rudy Ruitenberg

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to oil-consuming nations, cut five-year forecasts for global crude demand because of the economic slump, predicting consumption won’t regain last year’s levels until 2012.

The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels a day, it said in its Medium- Term Oil Market Report today. Consumption will average 86.76 million barrels a day in 2012, the first year it will rise above 2008’s level of 85.76 million barrels a day, according to the Paris-based agency.

[...]

[yesplease]

But...but...


CNN

LONDON (Reuters) -- The International Energy Agency said on Monday there could be an oil supply crunch from 2010 once global demand recovers and the impact of delayed investment crimps future supplies. The agency, which advises 28 industrialized countries, is concerned that some oil producers are deferring projects to expand supply. It expects oil demand growth to resume next year after its first drop in a generation.

"Currently the demand is very low due to the very bad economic situation," the IEA's executive director, Nobuo Tanaka, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in London. "But when the economy starts growing, recovery comes again in 2010 and then onward, we may have another serious supply crunch if capital investment is not coming," Tanaka said.

And I submit to you: "Der hey!" 'Course you can always pin your hopes on the global economy being on permanent kaput.

Here we are a few months later, and the economy is still kaput, but oil's just about doubled in price compared to February. At the very least it appears that oil may have $60-$70/bbl as a new long run support as opposed to $30+/bbl seen during the 80s/90s. The best question, IMO, is how does that influence URR?

[Ferretlover]

A little long:

Little investment in deposits worsens oil shortageInvestments in exploration and production require oil prices at USD 100
CARACAS, Monday June 22, 2009--Economy
The International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned against it. Low global oil prices are reducing world investments in exploration and production, which will restrict future oil supply.

Fernando Travieso, the advisor to the National Assembly (AN) Energy and Mines Committee, said that a price of USD 70 per barrel is not enough to make any investment. In order to undertake such projects, oil prices need to be above USD 100. Travieso added that notwithstanding oil prices in 2007 and the prices recorded at least by mid 2008, only one barrel was discovered for every five barrels used in the world.

The expert explained that Conoco shortened last year by USD 20 billion its investments in new prospecting and drilling projects. This was also the case for other major companies. "If no investment in exploration is made, companies will reduce their value. This will power the drop in oil reserves and cause troubles with oil supply in the future, which will worsen the current economic crisis," he said. –snip--

IEA: Crisis in 2013
For the IEA, the oil crisis will be noted in 2013, and this could lead to a tougher economic crisis. According to the agency, the reduced supply could unleash high oil prices as "ever seen before." --snip--

Travieso thinks that the Orinoco Oil Belt ensures the production of non-conventional – extra heavy crude oil because its reserves are already quantified and certified. This saves any further investments in exploration, which are expected to be completed in 2010, at the very latest.

According to the expert, the drop as a result of the natural depletion of reservoirs of conventional –light and medium- oil in the world is estimated at some four million barrels a year. That is, an annual average production of 76 million bpd could fall down to 72 million bpd of oil.

At the present time, 76 million out of 84 million bpd drilled are of conventional oil. The remainder is composed of non-conventional oil, extra heavy oil, deep-water oil, and oil from the Polar Circles. "In this scenario, surely enough, the future of the world lies in the Orinoco Oil Belt, where the return accounts for 20 percent and a barrel costs USD 2," he added.

Other experts anticipate a recovery of the world economy by 2010 and raising demand with lower supply.

According to the progress report of Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) for 2008, the reserves of light and medium oil have shrunk, as opposed to growing reserves of extra heavy crude oil by 50 percent. Translated by Conchita Delgado

El Universal

[deMolay]

Gee this guy is saying Peak Oil every other sentence. Chief Brain at the IEA. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 66585.html

[pup55]

Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris

He has been around for awhile. I am a lot more interested in the ones who "flip", like CERA recently did.... deny it for a long time and then go to the other side.... I suppose there are a few who do the opposite, peakers who decide, after some review of the data, that there is a lot of oil around.....

[deMolay]

I wonder how many of these suits read PO everyday?

[Maddog78]

From the news page.
The part in bold is what I have mentioned in several threads relating to why is production dropping and why haven't we switched to more n.g. for transport etc.
When OPEC opens the taps again and there is still more demand than supply, then I'll be concerned about peak oil.
In the mean time there are too many laid off oilfield workers and idle rigs to put much thought to it.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymond-j-learsy/the-international-energy_b_260633.html

snip........................
Consider the following. Back in June Nobou Tanaka the Executive Director of the IEA, the agency that according to its own house literature is meant to 'promote free markets in order to foster economic growth' went out of his way to pay tribute to that icon of free markets, the Organization 0f Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Complimenting them for keeping their oil output "steady", after OPEC had made clear their intent at reaching an oil price objective of $75/80bbl. He permitted himself to make a comment of outrageous obsequiousness, "our message to OPEC is they made a sound decision". Of course no mention of the near 4.5 barrels of oil production capacity being shut in by Saudi Arabia alone, not to speak of the rest of OPEC. Free markets yes, if ever higher oil prices is your goal.

snip........

[AirlinePilot]

What do laid off workers and rigs have to do with the cold hard facts that we were on a plateau of production over the last 4 years with the greatest run up of crude prices in history?

Do you submit that once the very small global blip in demand is restored that production is going to continue to happily climb above where we were last year?

[TheDude]

Learsy's a moron. Even the bolded excerpt isn't correct: from the latest This Week In Petroleum:

The latest round of OPEC cuts took effect on January 1, 2009, and called for a 4.2 million barrel per day (bbl/d) reduction from September 2008 production levels. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar accounted for about three-fourths of the 2.6 million bbl/d of actual cuts made by OPEC during the latest round of production allocations, in line with the trend during the past decade.

What do the OPEC cuts have to do with a lack of interest in switching to NGVs? Not sure what you're getting at, maddog, unless you just want to gripe about the IEA's motives.

[DantesPeak]

The article mentions the typical claims of the optimists: that there is a large used OPEC capacity waiting to be turned on as easily as your bathroom tap water. This confuses physical infrastructure capacity with actual capcity to produce oil. These are two different things, where some know the difference but willingly offer misleading statements.

I have posted other more recent statements from other sources at the IEA that are much more negative. Basicially the negative reports highlight depletion at existing fields.

Does anyone here really believe that output in Nigeria or Venezuela, or even non-OPEC member Mexico, could suddenly increase output tommorow if requested? If not, then this article is just a lie trying to make people feel better about a situation which unfortunately most 'experts' failed to anticipate.