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The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 02 May 2020, 13:55:38

MonteQuest wrote:
asg70 wrote:I get that you're fixated on the Malthusian die-off but there are a few steps along the way before we get there.


You do realize that every effort to stave off a die-off just perpetuates the overshoot condition and makes the population crash when it comes all the more resounding? There is no technofix for our situation, only an ecological one. And with a global pandemic running rampant across the planet from our overshoot condition, I'd say another phase of in the die-off is at hand. Mother Nature is at bat and she likes to bat last. :)



She is just playing wiffle ball and practicing. It only takes 15 hours of new births to replace all the deaths to date from Covid19.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby C8 » Sat 02 May 2020, 13:58:39

MonteQuest wrote:You do realize that every effort to stave off a die-off just perpetuates the overshoot condition and makes the population crash when it comes all the more resounding? There is no technofix for our situation, only an ecological one. And with a global pandemic running rampant across the planet from our overshoot condition, I'd say another phase of in the die-off is at hand. Mother Nature is at bat and she likes to bat last. :)


The closer the herd gets to the cliff, the faster it runs- thinking it can jump the gap. As we get closer to a crash, we will not pull back, but double down on a techno-fix and commit everything to a dream. we cannot move backwards.

Let me share something from my life

I am a teacher. When I taught economics for 10 years I had students play a game. I told them they could wander around a small area in the room at any speed they wanted and in any direction. I then placed a prediction and taped it to the ceiling in a sealed envelope (so they could be sure I wasn't cheating). After letting them wander for 3 minutes I told them to freeze where they were. I then took down the envelope and read the prediction: "over 80% of you will be walking in a counterclockwise circle at a pace even to the rest of the class.". Sure enough, when they looked around they saw i was correct.

I did this with 88 classes. Only one walked in a clockwise circle.

I did this exercise to show students that we are herd animals: smart buffalo, but still buffalo. When I went on to teach economics, the business cycle, stock markets, etc. this experience came in handy to refer back to.

I have no illusions that the herd of humanity will slow down as we approach the energy cliff. Its not what herds do, when they get scared they run faster.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 02 May 2020, 14:10:32

Ibon wrote:She is just playing wiffle ball and practicing. It only takes 15 hours of new births to replace all the deaths to date from Covid19.

As useless as this pandemic is but Mother Nature may be only 1 or 2 adenine to tymine flips in this virus (or in H5N1) to produce an untold disaster.
It is a very well worth watching.
There are certain features in this virus like long incubation time with asymptomatic transmission meantime and ability to invade and destroy lymphocytes T which are making it really worth to watch.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 02 May 2020, 14:13:55

MonteQuest wrote:There is no technofix for our situation, only an ecological one.

Yes there is:
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 May 2020, 15:18:23

MonteQuest wrote:
Newfie wrote:Monte Quest, You know you can agree and then add additional comment. Not every post needs to be confrontational.


Not trying to be confrontational. Didn't think I was, for that matter. Just explaining the reality of our debt-based money system and the futility of birth control. :)


Roger that!

It’s always very difficult to properly read intonation. And I apologize if I heard it wrong.

Thanks.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 May 2020, 15:24:51

Rs: Degrowth several countries are approaching it and reacting in different ways. None are accepting it, all are attempting to fight it.

Japan will be interesting to watch. They have been struggling for quite a while now. They are very anti-immigration so that hurts their efforts to grow. I suspect the will go in for AI because that is, to some extent, like adding population without the social consequences. Then again it shrinks the tax base.

I’m not predicting how they will behave, but I want to watch. I think they are out front on this.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby JuanP » Sat 02 May 2020, 17:19:59

C8 wrote:
JuanP wrote: Not producing any biological offspring also allows me to see all the the stupid things other humans do with an increased emotional detachment, since I have no offspring to worry about. This allows me to witness and study all the atrocities committed by others with less suffering and concern.


I am not so sure this strategy worked. You seemed to have made choices based on considerable compassion. That's not a switch that is easily flipped "off". My experience with people like you is that you still put yourself in the shoes of others, even if they are not your kids. I don't think there is any exit from compassionate suffering for those who have that personality. Now a sociopath? Yeah, they will do just fine in the new world order.


I can't deny the truth in your comment, and I have to admit that I find the fact that you have figured this out about me surprising, and even a little scary. I often think that I suffer more for other people's children than their own parents do, in many cases. But, I do think that I would have found life unbearable if I had to live with the guilt and responsibility of having had any of my own. I'll be paying more attention to your comments from now on; you obviously see more than most.

C8, I just read your other comment, and I can't help but wonder why they always moved counterclockwise, except that one time. Do you know why they don't move clockwise half the time, as I would expect? Is it a pattern of animal behavior observed in other animal species, too? Is there an evolutionary reason why? The 80% part I definitely get.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby JuanP » Sat 02 May 2020, 17:50:52

Newfie wrote:Rs: Degrowth several countries are approaching it and reacting in different ways. None are accepting it, all are attempting to fight it.

Japan will be interesting to watch. They have been struggling for quite a while now. They are very anti-immigration so that hurts their efforts to grow. I suspect the will go in for AI because that is, to some extent, like adding population without the social consequences. Then again it shrinks the tax base.

I’m not predicting how they will behave, but I want to watch. I think they are out front on this.


Newfie, I have been thoroughly fascinated by Japanese culture and their demographic evolution since I can remember. I agree with your observations. I don't think many others will follow their example, though, they seem to be quite unique.

I had the pleasure of working with hundreds of young Japanese, mostly women, when I helped train Yoga teachers. I helped train thousands of teachers from all over the world over a handful of years. I would interact with them 6 days a week from sunrise to sunset for 8 consecutive weeks. I found the experience absolutely fascinating. The Japanese were always the best students, with a discipline, perseverance, and willpower that set them apart from the rest. One of the most surprising things was, that while all the other students from all over the world were having a lot of sex in spite of the fact that it was forbidden, the Japanese never, ever did. I brought this up with many of them, and realized they simply had no interest or curiosity regarding sex; I found this fascinating. The Japanese young are the most asexual group of people I have ever met.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby C8 » Sat 02 May 2020, 18:22:06

JuanP wrote:C8, I just read your other comment, and I can't help but wonder why they always moved counterclockwise, except that one time. Do you know why they don't move clockwise half the time, as I would expect? Is it a pattern of animal behavior observed in other animal species, too? Is there an evolutionary reason why? The 80% part I definitely get.


I have no idea myself. But if you ever have a party with a room full of people its really cool trick to pull off!

Don't feel bad about being compassionate. Compassion is not a curse- its a blessing, it helps you accept the ending with grace. I knew sociopaths and I watched them as they slowly died in hospital rooms- they were in complete fear and meltdown, screaming at everyone. But why not? They were the only thing that mattered to themselves and were their own gods. Death was a complete annihilation of the universe to them. Very disturbing to watch.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 02 May 2020, 21:07:56

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Ibon wrote:She is just playing wiffle ball and practicing. It only takes 15 hours of new births to replace all the deaths to date from Covid19.

As useless as this pandemic is but Mother Nature may be only 1 or 2 adenine to tymine flips in this virus (or in H5N1) to produce an untold disaster.
It is a very well worth watching.
There are certain features in this virus like long incubation time with asymptomatic transmission meantime and ability to invade and destroy lymphocytes T which are making it really worth to watch.


I see evolution everyday outside my window so sure its possible. It is a novel virus after all and we do not understand everything yet about it.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 02 May 2020, 21:10:33

C8 wrote:I did this exercise to show students that we are herd animals: smart buffalo, but still buffalo. When I went on to teach economics, the business cycle, stock markets, etc. this experience came in handy to refer back to.

I have no illusions that the herd of humanity will slow down as we approach the energy cliff. Its not what herds do, when they get scared they run faster.


That is really cool. Like that term smart buffalo. I think this whole dynamic you explain here is at work with this pandemic as well.

Like God the herd of humanity acts in mysterious ways. Lol
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 03 May 2020, 05:42:38

Ibon wrote:
C8 wrote:That is really cool. Like that term smart buffalo. I think this whole dynamic you explain here is at work with this pandemic as well. Like God the herd of humanity acts in mysterious ways. Lol


I know I am in a herd as a human and herded by fate yet, I feel like a wolf in a small pack or at times a lone wolf as my animal totem.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 May 2020, 13:55:32

My previous graph image failed for some reason. Here's the latest breakdown of renewables and electrical power generation in the USA. Modern renewables like wind, solar, and geothermal comprise just 9.5%.

Image
Last edited by MonteQuest on Mon 04 May 2020, 14:34:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 May 2020, 14:05:36

The other big issue with renewables is net energy. They just don't have the EROEI to run a complex society without fossil fuels. That really hasn't changed much, even with new technology. The EROEI really goes south when you add in storage. The REN21 2020 Renewables Report will be out in June.

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Last edited by MonteQuest on Mon 04 May 2020, 14:23:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 May 2020, 14:11:01

C8 wrote:The closer the herd gets to the cliff, the faster it runs- thinking it can jump the gap. As we get closer to a crash, we will not pull back, but double down on a techno-fix and commit everything to a dream. we cannot move backwards.


That seems to be our destiny. We will eat everything that can be eaten and will burn everything that can be burned. Since China only has about 12% of their land arable, they eat everything--from insects to snakes and--wait for it. Bats.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 May 2020, 14:32:58

Newfie wrote:Degrowth several countries are approaching it and reacting in different ways. None are accepting it, all are attempting to fight it.


Degrowth just isn't possible in a fiat currency world. We have negative interest rates to spur growth--doesn't work. Many countries are paying their women to have children to grow GDP, the tax base, and the retirement base. In the US, Social Security counts on both new young working immigrants and illegal ones to fund the program. $13 billion a year alone from illegals who pay in but never collect. Money is going to have to be tied to something like it once was and spent, not loaned, into existence. How we retire the $250 trillion in debt/savings is another question.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 May 2020, 14:41:17

Here's the penetration into heating, cooling, and transport by renewables. Note: While the header reads 2016, it is 2019 numbers--see at the bottom. Just 2.1% renewable electricity into heating and transportation combined.

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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 May 2020, 17:02:58

MonteQuest wrote:The other big issue with renewables is net energy. They just don't have the EROEI to run a complex society without fossil fuels. That really hasn't changed much, even with new technology. The EROEI really goes south when you add in storage. The REN21 2020 Renewables Report will be out in June.

Image


Monte,

Interesting. You have a link for that graphic?

I wonder how he came to define the minimum required EROI.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 May 2020, 17:05:33

MonteQuest wrote:
Newfie wrote:Degrowth several countries are approaching it and reacting in different ways. None are accepting it, all are attempting to fight it.


Degrowth just isn't possible in a fiat currency world. We have negative interest rates to spur growth--doesn't work. Many countries are paying their women to have children to grow GDP, the tax base, and the retirement base. In the US, Social Security counts on both new young working immigrants and illegal ones to fund the program. $13 billion a year alone from illegals who pay in but never collect. Money is going to have to be tied to something like it once was and spent, not loaned, into existence. How we retire the $250 trillion in debt/savings is another question.


As you well point out, what we are doing is not working either.

So one way or another something new will evolve out of this mess.

I think Japan is on the bleeding edge of this change. Will be interesting to watch.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 May 2020, 18:04:47

Newfie wrote:Monte, Interesting. You have a link for that graphic? I wonder how he came to define the minimum required EROI.


My bad. It's an old chart I've had for some time just to illustrate the cliff. The 14 to 1 is for conventional oil to run modern society with all the "finer things of life like theatres, amusement parks, etc." Here's the link:
http://thenextturn.com/eroei-energy-cliff/

Some of the new analysis show an EROEI of about 7 is required. This graphic shows solar PV and wind with storage below that. But to be candid, the estimates are all over the map but still far lower than fossil fuels. Storage is the killer.

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