[waldo]

Gasoline consumption goes up about 7 % from February to July. What is that, is it just idiots driving to disneyworld? So, could we cut peak demand by 7 % if people just stayed close to home?

[KillTheHumans]

Gasoline consumption goes up about 7 % from February to July. What is that, is it just idiots driving to disneyworld?

In June of last summer I went from Boulder to Pennsylvania, then Maine, then Ohio, then back to Boulder, then to Vegas, the Grand Canyon and Meteor Crater via 3 different cars/motorcycles totaling perhaps 10,0000 miles.

I didn't go to DisneyWorld. In October I went to the Space Shuttle launch though, and ran into some people from Disneyworld. Does that count?

So, could we cut peak demand by 7 % if people just stayed close to home?

We could save 50% every day if people would just choose to drive half as much next month as they did last month. Peak oil consequences are so easy to mitigate through behavior changes it makes me want to puke....takes all of the fun out of the idea of survivalists and zombies battling it out in the streets!

[Armageddon]

Everytime I drive down the highway I look at the cars next to me to check out for hot babes and always notice one person in each car. Car pooling would help drastically. But who the hell wants to car pool ? Not me.

[MarkJames]

During the summer our local fuel consumption goes up substantially due to tourists, day-trippers, vacationers, vacation home occupancy, summer jobs, student drivers, tow vehicles, boats, waverunners, motorcycles, sports cars, campers, RVs etc. We have a lot of vacation home owners that commute to work from their second homes daily during the summer season.

Many people don't like winter sports or winter travel, but they like summer travel, amusement parks, water parks, summer fairs, hiking, camping, fishing and watersports like swimming, boating, waterskiing and tubing.

[waldo]

Right- no one wants to car pool, and driving half as much as the month before, what does that mean, what do you cut out? Everyone has to work, I don't intend to stop driving for work. But the "road trip," yes I think that is idiocy for someone peak oil aware. I can find plenty to do close to home and don't need to waste precious resources or contribute further to global warming just to see an amusement park. I'm sorry, I'm not perfect, but there are things we can easily (not) do, and that is one of them. Cut it out! What's wrong with you?

[Armageddon]

Right- no one wants to car pool, and driving half as much as the month before, what does that mean, what do you cut out? Everyone has to work, I don't intend to stop driving for work. But the "road trip," yes I think that is idiocy for someone peak oil aware. I can find plenty to do close to home and don't need to waste precious resources or contribute further to global warming just to see an amusement park. I'm sorry, I'm not perfect, but there are things we can easily (not) do, and that is one of them. Cut it out! What's wrong with you?

There is no way I am cutting back, unless I have to for financial reasons. Why should I have to conserve just so joe six pack can live it up ? I will party on until the crash comes. Screw them and the horse they rode in on. I am going to party like it's 1999 and nobody is going to stop me, LOL.

[Tanada]

Right- no one wants to car pool, and driving half as much as the month before, what does that mean, what do you cut out? Everyone has to work, I don't intend to stop driving for work. But the "road trip," yes I think that is idiocy for someone peak oil aware. I can find plenty to do close to home and don't need to waste precious resources or contribute further to global warming just to see an amusement park. I'm sorry, I'm not perfect, but there are things we can easily (not) do, and that is one of them. Cut it out! What's wrong with you?

There is no way I am cutting back, unless I have to for financial reasons. Why should I have to conserve just so joe six pack can live it up ? I will party on until the crash comes. Screw them and the horse they rode in on. I am going to party like it's 1999 and nobody is going to stop me, LOL.

Jevon's paradox, every drop I save will be used up by someone else who doesn't care. Therefor saving fuel has to have its own intrinsic reward, in this case it would be saving the costs of using the fuel. The problem is, it really doesn't cost that much money to waste gasoline or diesel! It costs the Ecosystem, but those eefects are long term and hard to predict. Very few people have the self discipline to deny themselves something thier neighbors are enjoying, it is a tribal/herd behavior.

If I started packing my lunch I could cut my work related driving in about half. But getting away from work for an hour and blah blah blah blah blah. People are going to keep behaving the way they are until circumstances force them to change en masse. Until we hit the point where the majority changes course, like they did back in 1981, you will not see much if any demand destruction.

[KillTheHumans]

Right- no one wants to car pool, and driving half as much as the month before, what does that mean, what do you cut out?

For some of us, its as easy as not going home for lunch. That would save me 1/2 of all commuting right there.

There are other ways to use half as much such as driving something which gets double the mileage, thereby using half as much.

But the "road trip," yes I think that is idiocy for someone peak oil aware.

Thats neither true nor reasonable. Think about it....every Sierra Club member the world over has bought into the CO2=Global warming routine for years now....you think they all stopped driving because they are global warming aware? Of course not. You think they even gave up their SUV's? Unlikely. Knowledge of an issue doesn't convert to participating in its solution until such participation is forced upon us in whatever way we are most sensitive to.

I can find plenty to do close to home and don't need to waste precious resources or contribute further to global warming just to see an amusement park. I'm sorry, I'm not perfect, but there are things we can easily (not) do, and that is one of them. Cut it out! What's wrong with you?

I like random motion. Spanning the country. Have since high school. When that motion becomes too expensive, or I can't be assured a supply of fuel while doing it, I shall cease and desist. Amazing how 3 years after peak and its still completely possible to do though....

[evilgenius]

So, even with what people think are high prices and with a housing crash the summer driving season will remain intact for at least another year. I guess it is further proof that you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Buy oil stocks, now!

[burnfromwithin]

I find this an amusing discussion, because I actually drive more in winter (and use a lot more gasoline doing it) than I do in summer. If I want to go somewhere within about 10 miles in summer, I ride my bicycle. If I want to go further, I ride my motorcycle. But in winter, I drive my car anywhere that is further than about 2 miles (altho that depends on weather, temperature, etc). About the only time I use my car in summer is if it is raining and I'm going a decent distance.

In reality, this has little to do with Peak Oil/Global Warming and more to do with my desire to be outside and active. Riding a bicycle/motorcycle or walking is a lot more enjoyable than being stuck in a cage.

Thankfully I live in an urban environment that allows this sort of behavior. Unfortunately, some friends and relatives live in the suburbs (and some shops/services don't exist in the city, like electronics stores or motorcycle shops), so I have to make trips out of my urban environment for certain reasons.

And I gave my roommate a hard time for driving a half mile to the grocery store yesterday.

[FeralReason]

Yesterday I bought my wife a digital camera and I noticed that the $10 difference in prices forced me to think about the difference in the cost of gas (and tolls) between driving to one location or the other. I know that my wife is now less likely to drive to stores that are farther away for marginal price savings. We are also buying food/staples in larger quantities to reduce our trips to the grocery.

Although I have seen many posts deriding the idea that Americans are conserving, I think we are. Besides the effect above, the emerging recession is causing a general decline in purchasing (confirmed by UPS shipping outlook) and fuel costs are causing increasing use of train instead of truck freight (confirmed by both rail and trucking-related earnings reports). I think this means a general background decline in fuel (gasoline and ethanol) demand that is unlikely to change for perhaps another 6 months.

(Prices remain high, I think, due to falling dollar and global demand.)

Now -- the big question for me is will there be a significant reduction in the "special causes" of the "peak driving season" demand which generally lasts until July or August ?

Any thoughts ?

[RedStateGreen]

Welcome to peak oil.com

One thing I noticed (since we go visit family in CA every summer) is that the price to go out there jumped remarkably from last year. Increased airline (read jet fuel) prices will lead people to stay home; increased gasoline prices will lead people to drive less on their stay-home vacations. I predict a drop in gasoline usage for this summer compared to last, sure.

As far as personally, I've been hypermiling a bit, and doing a lot more bulk buying (I hate shopping), so I don't really have to go out that much.

[NeoPeasant]

Any thoughts ?

I predicted this in 2005.

Despite the over 3/1 disagreement by those who voted, it sure looks like US VMT is peaking.

[pup55]

Welcome, FeralReason:
The numbers right now support roughly zero growth in unleaded products supplied between this year and last, based on the recent EIA reports. The number should be growing at roughly the same rate as the population growth, which is a little more than 1% per year.

At the moment, any savings that are created by people cutting back slightly on diving are being roughly offset by the number of new drivers, plus people that are driving their old, inefficient junkers longer because they can't replace them.
As for the 2010 prediction, I am starting to like it. Every year, some number of million baby boomers gets out of the labor force. No commute, no vehicle miles.

[evilgenius]

I actually drove around a little bit more. I did it, however, in the interest of finding out more about what surrounds me so that when $4.00 and upward comes I will know where to go rather than have to spend more money because I was ignorant of my options. It is good to know what is a wee bit farther away from you than might be normal walking distance. It is good to know how far you might have to carry things after you either call around or search the internet for the cheapest price.

[welshgreen]

Yes I have changed my driving habits, in the summer I virtually dont drive at all. I go to work on the bus, and cycle everywhere else. When I do drive I drive as efficiently as possible laying off on the accelerator!

[Ludi]

No, it seems like we're driving a lot more lately. From one or two trips to town a week to three or four.

[emersonbiggins]

As for the 2010 prediction, I am starting to like it. Every year, some number of million baby boomers gets out of the labor force. No commute, no vehicle miles.

That's assuming that most will retire. In the midst of evaporating wealth and economic turmoil, it can be assumed that most who can work, will be working. Therefore, no reduction of miles should be considered a given.

[jlw61]

No. We changed many habits and got rid of the SUV to pay of our debt much faster. We buy in bulk, I telecommute, and my wife works 2 miles from home. We have started a garden to help in with the cost of food. I got a 1986 Honda 450 Rebel so I'm not tied to the house, but I don't use it a lot. The fact that our driving has steadily decreased as we cut costs out of our budget coincidentally caused our monthly fuel outlay to stay roughly the same over the last three years. If we have to go out of town, we rent what we need and pay what we must without hesitation.

We'll probably buy a used mini-van or SUV next year now that we're approaching the "nothing but mortgage" debt level. AT THAT TIME we'll only use it as we must because we'll be saving to buy land at a "Plan B" location.

[FeralReason]

Wow -- thanks for the warm welcome and thoughtful replies. So summarizing and adding a bit (actually a lot):
Forces against increasing demand:

1) Conservation seems to be counter-balancing new drivers (many sub-bullets could go here.)
2) Baby boomer retirements expected to reduce commutes
3) High gasoline / deisel prices are driving many loads to rail transport.
4) High jet fuel prices (and consumer-unfriendly countermeasures by the airlines) probably driving down air travel.

Forces driving increasing demand:

1) Recession may force baby boomers to work longer.
2) Declining dollar should cause a boom in foreign tourism in the US.

Net/net this leads me to think that growth in consumption is decellerating and the price action in refiners' stocks (VLO, TSO) seems to indicate that the market generally agrees.
Gasoline prices, however, are another issue. Prices are being driven up by:

1) Rising wealth in emerging economies driving auto/motorbike sales and more energy-intensive agriculture (which drives oil prices -- the primary cost to US refiners.)
2) Recent 8% reduction in corn planting (in favor of soy) will likely drive up ethanol prices (which will help drive up gasoline prices.)
3) A growing awareness of the role of ethanol in increasing food prices may cause a backlash against government support for this. Any withdrawal of support or counter legislation should also drive up ethanol prices, increasing gasoline demand (doesn't seem like there is any way to win here.)

Now another question for you experts: Since the US is dependent on costly boutique gasoline mixtures, would slowing US gasoline demand coupled less-favorable crack spreads (because of oil prices) cause our refiners (such as Valero and Tesoro) to cut back on US boutique fuels and actually export some gasoline overseas ? (Long term, this direction could create some real problems for us !)