[RonMN]

I'd like to get an idea from people on the different "STAGES" of collapse, how you think it may unfold and how best to prepare for each stage.

So the Sh* has hit the fan...people are panicing & fearful & some violence is occuring (have a gun and ammo at the ready)...

Stores are closed & being looted (have a stockpile of food, water, undies, sox, winter coats, soap, etc etc etc).

Some time later it's spring & time to start growing your own food/hunting/gathering etc (stock of shovels, hoes, heirloom seeds, water buckets, gun & ammo for hunting, knowledge, books on gardening or apple picking or gathering pine nuts, etc etc etc).

Harvest time (drying, preserving, organizing a neighborhood canning kitchen, etc etc etc).

Obviously i don't have EVERYTHING thought out here & that's why i'm asking this question. What stages do you forsee and what will we need for each stage of the game?

[pup55]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic3218-30.html

I don't usually speculate on the long-term future in any detailed way, but since you seem so worried, maybe this is worthy of discussion.

Consider the above dieoff model as a possible scenario. Note that I am not even saying that this is what willhappen, but it is what mighthappen.

On the basis of this model, the first maybe 20 years will be the most stressful. Despite a shrinking supply of oil, the population will still increase during that time, so there will be rapidly diminishing resources.

These resources will not be evenly distributed. Average per-capita oil consumption globally is only about 4 barrels/per capita per year. We all know that the US is at about 25, but places like Italy and Japan, which are perfectly liveable, are functioning fine at about 12 per capita b/y. I have been all over the world, and I can tell you that the Malaysian rate of 8 b/y is also perfectly fine, the Chinese rate of about 2 is a little rough but still okay, so people will be fine.

People in stupidly overpopulated places (and we all know where they are) will suffer terribly as this wrings it self out.

But, as bad as it will ever get, in about 2025, the global per-capita oil usage will be about the same as it was in the US in 1952. I was not around then, but I remember the late 50's, and it, too was quite livealbe.
Yes, we grew our own food, did not have AC, and it was a little more physical, but quite liveable.

My parents both made it through the depression, a 30% economic contraction, less than 1 barrel of oil per capita per year, pretty much the same way. My dad has lots of stories about all of the things he did to earn a few cents here and there in the little town he lived in. Everybody had a garden and/or livestock.

There was an interesting post on here the other day, about the gas riots in 1974, and it is true that there will be a few jerks that try to stir up some trouble. They will be dealt with pretty quickly though. A few jerks will still be around, like they always have through out history, but they will be in the same boat as you will, so you will get the pleasure of seeing when they get their just desserts.

The main thing you need to do is to get in shape, because the health care standards will not be what they were. Right now, 80% of the health care costs are spent in the last 20% of your life (think: bypass surgery, hip replacements, cancer surgery, cataract surgery, etc) so the first thing to go will be all of the stuff that is keeping you around between age 65 and 80. The dieoff model based on life expectancy says that there will be fewer and fewer old timers around. If you want to be one of them, lay off the cheeseburgers, because there will not be as many doctors or resources around to bail you out.

Now, this is not to say there might not be some economic dislocation, of the type Montequest has written about, and the first casualty will be the overinflated expectations of some of these young people who are sure they are going to become millionaires. Once people get that out of their system, their entire attitude will change, and things will level out. At some point, no matter how poor you get, they can't get blood from a turnip, as we used to say back home, so your main project will be to find a way to take care of yourself and the people around you as you function day-to-day.

A lot of the people in the midwest that went through the economic contraction of the early 80's have developed just such a changed set of expectations, and are functioning. They take pleasure in family, friends, cheap outdoor activities, etc. but I will say that a lot of them have been affected by it a little which has led to some social issues. In a generation, this will be behind us, and attitudes will be adjusted to the conditions.

Be that as it may, with a little advance planning, per some of the interesting threads on the planning forum, your main other job should be to build yourself a little non-technologically dependent safety net which will keep you from starving during the first transition.

After that, who knows? Anyway, you will probably have a lot of extra time on your hands to think about it.

[RonMN]

I agree with you that this is a "what MIGHT happen" type of thread (not what WILL happen).

I'm going by the idea "hope for the best but plan for the worst".

So i'm trying to get ideas i haven't thoght of on how bad could each scenerio really get...all the way through to the re-building process for those who have survived the "transition".

Thanks!