[jato]

Discuss (or just vote)

Remember:

The phrase is "significant chance".

NOT

slim chance
slight chance
remote possibility
I hope we will

[seldom_seen]

Not a chance. Our colonization of this planet is turning in to quite a disaster and we have plenty of food, air and water here.

[venky]

If we can successfully transistion off fossil fuels with the more essential aspects of our technological civilization intact, I think, yes it is possible. I even think its possible we might be able to go beyond our own star systems. They have already worked out tentative designs and mathematics of how a warp drive ship might function, even if it isn't certain if such a ship is theoritically possible.

http://members.tripod.com/da_theoretical1/

But, I dont think we are going to get out of the mess we are in right now by sending some of our population out into space. The EROEI does not seem that promising.

[jato]

Well if you are looking to build a Warp Drive Engine I wouldn't recommend holding your breath, the original Alcubierre Warp Drive required 100 times the mass of the Universe, so that's a no go. However Van Den Broeck managed to reduce the energy of Warp Drive, by inverting the field to mimic a "ship in bottle," reducing the figure around to a few solar masses depending on the size of the craft of course. So the Van Den Broeck Warp Drive is also a no go, only astrophysical sources such as black holes even come close to producing that kind of energy making a moot argument for building an engine, but not quite enough to rule out naturally forming Warp Drives... ...). It is very easy to see that simply generating a Warp Drive is far beyond any known technology

[AmericanEmpire]

Going into space and using the resources of the whole universe would be the only way to keep our growth paradign going but I think the TSHTF here on Earth before we get a chance to get to that level of technology.

Besides we pretty much turned our backs on space exploration after the Apollo missions in the 70's. We decided to just sit around on our fat lazy asses watching reality TV, driving SUV's, and being consumers.

[Doly]

A case could be made that we already have. We've had permanent labs in orbit for a while now, haven't we?

If you are talking about something like a permanent settlement in the Moon or Mars, I think it's perfectly possible, but not soon. Not going to happen in the next twenty years. But once the problems of peak oil have been sorted, and permanent labs in orbit are a common thing, it's the next logical development.

I'm not expecting Mars or the Moon to become much more inhabited than Antarctica, though.

[Omnitir]

It depends. What is the definition of colonising space, and do you mean soon or ever?

As Doly pointed out, humans have been able to live in space for decades now, so technically we already have colonised space. Not to mention that sending machines throughout the solar system as we have done could also be considered a form of colonisation.

I assume you mean a respectable number of humans living permanently in space? Yes, I think there is a significant chance that one day large permanent human colonies will be established off world. It won’t happen in our life times unless the space elevator turns out to be feasible (which we will likely know in around 5 years). Without the space elevator I expect it won’t happen for at least another 100 years.

Perhaps more important though is the peak oil relevance of colonising space. I believe we have a significant chance of “colonising” space, or rather industrialising it with mostly automated systems, in the sense that we will establish a permanent system of attaining various resources from space. This is likely to happen within a couple of decades, and I think peak oil won’t be the reason for it not happening, but the reason for it becoming a priority and thus happening. Post peak oil depression recovery, space industrialism will allow people to slowly make a transition to living off-world. Though it will be highly unlikely to prevent die-off or over population. I imagine living in space will be for the rich elite.

Not a chance. Our colonization of this planet is turning in to quite a disaster and we have plenty of food, air and water here.

Yet we’ve colonized every nook and cranny we could find on this world. Even if it takes a while, is it not likely that attempts will be eventually made to colonize off world? Incidentally space can also provide plenty of food, air and water. It’s all made from the same stardust.

But, I dont think we are going to get out of the mess we are in right now by sending some of our population out into space. The EROEI does not seem that promising.

I agree, but with one exception. If space elevators turn out to be feasible, it’s not hard to imagine several decades from now many dozens of space elevators servicing large orbital space platforms, supporting many thousands of residents. I know it sounds far-fetched, but hey, so did heavier then air flight 100 years ago.

It is very easy to see that simply generating a Warp Drive is far beyond any known technology

Personally I don’t think we’ll ever be able to bend the laws of physics like in Star Trek, even with the help of superior artificial intelligence (A.I. vastly smarter then any human). However if space colonisation happens, and as I said I think it eventually will, then I expect within several hundred thousand years ridiculously gigantic space habitats will be the means to travel to other stars. I’m thinking along the lines of a massive asteroid or collection of asteroids together slowly floating between the voids for thousands of years to get to a new system for more resources. Again, this sounds far fetched, but even in hundreds of thousands of years I thnk this would be more realistic then Warp Drive.

I doubt we’ll ever zip around the galaxy like in science fiction. And even if we could, I seriously doubt that there would be anyone out there to go visit (and certainly not pretty girls in metal bikini’s like in Star Trek ).

Going into space and using the resources of the whole universe would be the only way to keep our growth paradign going but I think the TSHTF here on Earth before we get a chance to get to that level of technology.

Guess what? We are actually already at that level of technology, and have been for many years. What’s stopping us from exploiting space? Everyday people’s inaccurate preconceptions about space is what’s holding us back, not technology.

Besides we pretty much turned our backs on space exploration after the Apollo missions in the 70's.

I know what you mean, and agree how lame manned space missions have been since Apollo. However it’s important to be aware that we have actually explored the entire solar system in considerable detail since Apollo. Automation just makes so much more sense. Colonising space with people just isn’t as important as attaining new resources and economic growth. We can colonise space with humans later. For now lets just worry about economic recovery.

[deconstructionist]

There... are... FOUR! LIGHTS!

i think that even if it is a small portion of us and even if it is many years in the future--humans will at least make a viable effort to colonize another planet. let's first try to concentrate on applying that "prime directive" here at home...

[JayBee]

The reason why there are NO ALIEN VISITATIONS is because all technological civilisations burn themselves out before they get off their home planet.

[KrellEnergySource]

Casting a 'no' vote on this one is a sad thing, isn't it?

I'm sure most of us here have seen the images of the Hubble Deep Field photographs of a really tiny, tiny ark of sky and seen the thousands upon thousands of whole galaxies revealed in those photos. If not, go find it and look. Baby steps just out of our own atmosphere tantalize us with the unimaginable immensity of it all. Why are we here? What is out there?

On the other hand, why do I suspect that should we ever find a single flower on another planet it will be a miracle, but we fail to appreciate how many miracles we drive to extinction here every single year.

Are we important? Are we a less than microscopic anomaly in the universe?

Damn, I hope that mankind eventually gets out there. I'd love to be proven wrong on this educated guess.

Brian

[ashurbanipal]

I think we will eventually, but it's centuries, if not millenia, away.

[gnm]

Well being that we are really poorly suited to space travel I would suggest an alternate possibility. We are MUCH better at molecular biology/ nanotech/ electronic engineering than we are at hypothetical advances in energy physics. The biggest advancement we have made there lately is the ion drive. Whoohoo - the prinicipal has been understood since 1900 or so. But now look at the advancements in computing systems in just the last 30 years! And quantum computer prototypes are already being tested. We are REALLY good at info tech. So how about this. 50 years in the future we download ourselves into the proverbial "brain in the box" - something MUCH better suited for space travel, and go for it then. In short I don't think we're going to be doing it in our current form ala star trek.

You may commence with your laughter.

-G

[JayBee]

Well being that we are really poorly suited to space travel I would suggest an alternate possibility. We are MUCH better at molecular biology/ nanotech/ electronic engineering than we are at hypothetical advances in energy physics. The biggest advancement we have made there lately is the ion drive. Whoohoo - the prinicipal has been understood since 1900 or so. But now look at the advancements in computing systems in just the last 30 years! And quantum computer prototypes are already being tested. We are REALLY good at info tech. So how about this. 50 years in the future we download ourselves into the proverbial "brain in the box" - something MUCH better suited for space travel, and go for it then. In short I don't think we're going to be doing it in our current form ala star trek.

You may commence with your laughter.

-G

Maybe our forebears did do already and we are avatars reliving their former experiences.

Okay nurse, time for my medication.

[Falconoffury]

The reason why there are NO ALIEN VISITATIONS is because all technological civilisations burn themselves out before they get off their home planet.

There have been alien visitations. Haven't you read about abductions and other encounters? Aliens have visited us for at least 60 years, possibly for thousands of years.

[eastbay]

Humans will NOT colonise any part of space other than the Earth which, other than a few expirimental labs, is the only place humans will ever live.

Also, the existence of interstellar space travelling 'aliens' is pure fantasy and I really don't want to hear another word about it.

[bentstrider]

Also, the existence of interstellar space travelling 'aliens' is pure fantasy and I really don't want to hear another word about it.

Look's like your going to have to shoot me with your boomstick then.
There are, but they just don't want to come here.
I mean, why intermingle with things that take great pride in offing each other?
As far as warp drive, not possible.
But what about a wormhole of some type?
We already know blackholes exist, it will only be a matter of time before we find something else like it, but more useful.

[Omnitir]

The reason why there are NO ALIEN VISITATIONS is because all technological civilisations burn themselves out before they get off their home planet.

Ah, good old Fermi’s paradox. Your reasoning seems very likely, but I think there is also a strong chance, as amazing as it sounds, that Earth is actually a rare unique gem in the galaxy as the only planet capable of supporting life. Even with a galaxy 100 light-years wide, there is still only a very small chance of any Earth-like planets forming, much less more then one.

And even if there have been other civilisations come and go, that doesn’t guarantee that we won’t make it either.

There have been alien visitations. Haven't you read about abductions and other encounters? Aliens have visited us for at least 60 years, possibly for thousands of years.

You still haven’t read up on Fermi’s paradox, have you? There is no way that an alien race could exist for hundreds of millions of years without colonizing most of the galaxy. I don’t care how advanced their ethics are.

There are, but they just don't want to come here.

The reasoning for studying a developing world would be obvious, regardless of what we think of ourselves. However you should also look into Fermi’s paradox. Basically if there are ancient and advanced space travelling civilizations out there, there would not just be “out there”, they would be everywhere. They would have colonized the entire galaxy and we would easily see their galactic super-civilisation everywhere we look.

Humans are the most advanced space travelling species in the galaxy. And there is a good chace that we are the only intelligence in the galaxy also.

[Falconoffury]

Fermi's Paradox is a theory. You shouldn't use a theory to ignore real evidence. I have been reading about first hand accounts of UFO and alien sightings, and I must say that UFO sightings and alien sightings or abductions have strong links.

[KrellEnergySource]

Before I had Peak Oil to worry about, I was worried that mankind *would* reach other life-bearing planets. At that point, the organisms that had survived in extremely hostile environments would eventually escape whatever confines we designed for them and absolutely love our warm, wet world and warm, wet bodies. End of man.

Maybe I'm just the kind of person that needs big things to worry about?

Or the real reason space faring civilizations don't exist?

Brian

[mercury121]

I think human beings will colonize space. It will start likely in a century although it may easily take many more. It will definitely not happen during the decline phase of energy available. It will start many decades after renewable energy sources start to dominate energy production. With abundant renewable energy resources some communities could build the infrastructure to get people into space. Instead of rocket ships which are way too inefficient laser proplusion will be used. A person will pushed into space riding on laser beams.

After the key infrastructure is built a citizen could buy a ticket into space. It will be expensive -- perhaps as much as ten years of stored energy from solar or wind or other power sources but it will be doable.

With access to space the citizen will then have access to the rich mineral sources of outer space. The citizen may choose an asteroid to live on and transform it into a living world full of diversity, with the help of other like-minded citizens.

I believe that the decline of energy will break up our elite-driven society and create a democratic society of people relatively equal in power. Mass colonization into space may reverse that trend but hopefully not for centuries after we get a good foothold into space.