1) Non-proven assumptions: The basic theory of peak oil is that US oil discoveries peaked, and about 15 years later, production peaked and then declined irreversably. The main assumption is that the aggregate production of the entire world's vast oilfields will also follow a similar distribution- the peak production will follow peak discovery. This incredibly crucial assumption is the chief flaw in the peak oil theory.
rational scientific debate
Non-proven assumptions
Geo-political factors. Many oil producers have much more riding on oil than just a change in lifestyle.
the value of the US dollar is very low, it has been effectively devalued heavily against many other world currencies and commodities
the peak oil theory is a bit of a doomsday cult
SHiFTY wrote:Those (mostly western) countries that have peaked have capitalist governments
SHiFTY wrote:There exists a vast world out there with many different mindsets to the one we are all used to. Most OPEC countries have a single oil producer- the government, or more accurately the governemnt owned oil company. As I'm sure the free marketeers will attest, governments are generally bad at running efficient for-profit businesses, and often have very different motives, for example sustainability/conservation, local development and particularly staying in power.
This may lead to deliberate underinvestment in oil production- why should a government strip-mine their resources when they can leave some for future generations. I believe this is the reason that Iraq has only a few thousand wells that have been drilled, while Texas has over a million.
...Geo-political factors. Many oil producers have much more riding on oil than just a change in lifestyle. The west basically keeps half the mid east at peace- the luxury existence of the princes Saudi are legendary. Most of these countries and their rulers are supported militarily by the west, so long as the oil keeps flowing. However, if and when it stops flowing, the people will probably rise up in an Iranian-style revolution. Therefore it would be in the interests of these rulers to keep production tight and underinvest.
3) Other economic factors make peak oil less likely. It may have escaped many, but the value of the US dollar is very low, it has been effectively devalued heavily against many other world currencies and commodities. The price of gold, for example, has increased roughly the same percentage amount as oil. See the graphs below.
The other economic factor that I question is the behviour of markets. Some seem to think that markets would discover a peak of oil and crash and never come up, just kind of give up. I dont think this will happen, simply because markets are so short-term in their thinking. Certainly the world may be due for a recession or depression anyway, but I doubt high oil prices would suddenly discourage vast hedge funds from trying to make a quick buck. Investments in alternative energy will soar- they already are- and another "manhatten project" for fusion could be a realistic scenario.
I do also think the peak oil theory is a bit of a doomsday cult. Why couldnt we also have an oil consumption peak? It happened in the 1970s- people ditched their old fuel inefficient cars, conserved energy and bought local. This could easily happen again- get rid of $10 airfares, 3000 mile farm produce and SUVs and you would probably reduce oil consumption by a significant amount.
Nothing has the energy profit and convenience of oil and natural gas.
SHiFTY wrote:why should a government strip-mine their resources when they can leave some for future generations.
SHiFTY wrote:With oil supplies tight, and possible nukes, they [Iran] know they have the west by the balls.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil deposits outside the Middle East, but President Hugo Chavez believes his country has the largest reserves in the world and he plans to prove it.
http://www.peakoil.com/article5301.html
SHiFTY wrote:Why couldn't we also have an oil consumption peak?
Jaymax wrote:Nothing has the energy profit and convenience of oil and natural gas.
Nothing available today
Fusion and hydrogen have the potential to offer much better 'energy profit and convience' if we can get the bugs worked out - and we're making strides...
In the long term, I get worried the other way - look what humanity has done to the planet since we've had bucketloads of cheap energy available - think what we're might do it if we do get there.
--J
Petro wrote:oh gawd, yawn perhaps you will adopt all these things you espouse and show us how it is done? Jamax, those like you that do not walk the walk should not tell tell others.... are you self suffieiernt? are you poised for the technological revolution on this horizon? if you are share with the rest of us.
If you find me an energy source that is better than oil, you have found a solution for peak oil. That does NOT mean that peak oil won't happen or that we won't have an oil crisis.
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