by ROCKMAN » Sun 28 Sep 2014, 10:20:33
"Rosneft and Exxon won’t be able to do more drilling, putting the exploration and development of the area on hold despite the find announced today." Not accurate. XOM can't...Rosneft can. They might need help from China or someone else but they aren't restricted. And depending on the details of the concession XOM might lose all rights to the discovery if they don't continue development as per the contract. Even the US govt takes offshore leases in the GOM away from companies that don't comply with the mandated time line. But XOM probably has a year before that risk comes to play. Besides from what I gather drilling season in that region may have just ended and another well couldn't be drilled until next summer. And development and production of the discovery (if it is actually commercial)...at least 4 to 5 years down the road. And if the sanctions last for years? A certainty that XOM would forfeit their rights and I can easily see China taking their place. If the discovery is commercial it will be developed: the oil importers of the world will demand it. Even the US consumers eventually IMHO.