There's no news here, just rearranging stats.
The april 2003 editorial in Energyinstitute concludes that of global consumption of 74 mb/d, about 21 mb/d - or 29 % - comes from countries in decline in 2002 (Based on BP handbook '03 - http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=921).
Imitating this approach on new BP 2003 data (handbook '04) gives following:
To countries in decline, I've included US, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Denmark, Norway, Romania, UK, Oman, Yemen, Congo, Egypt, Gabon, Tunesia, Australia and Indonesia. Combined they have a production of 22.265.000 b/d. If accumulated global production is 76.777.000 b/d in 2003, then the percentage in decline is:
22.265.000*100/ 76.777.000 = 28,99 %.
According to BP, Mexico has an increase in 2003 of 5,8 % over 2002. China's increase is about 1,5 %. Aspo has a peak for both Mexico & China in 2003 (http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/WORLD_SUMMARY_html.htm). Mexico and China combined add 7.185.000 b/d, giving a overall from declining countries of 29.450.000 b/d. Still using a global production of 76 mb/d, this gives a decline precentage of 29.450.000*100/ 76.777.000 = 38.35 %. If global consumption is set a bit higher, at 81 mb/d, this gives a percentage of 36.35 % (or my maths is cheating me?).
I think it's quite interesting that Aspo's approach and Chris Skrewbowski's article 'Megaprojects' arrive at more or less the same date.
Kind regards
X