[pup55]

If you subscribe to the Hubbert model of resource depletion, you ought to be able to use this methodology to predict the depletion behavior of all sorts of things. Some of us might go so far as to conclude that even if you cannot model oil depletion directly, because of some of the unknowns involved, you can model downstream activities that are dependent on oil, and thereby deduce the approximate peak of the base resource from that.

If this is the case, let’s see what happens if you model some measurement of air travel. The data is easy to come by:

Air Traffic

The measurement unit is “revenue passenger ton-miles in thousandsâ€

[pup55]

It looks like when I pasted that spreadsheet in here, the "predicted' data from year 45 on slid one column to the left.

When you paste it into excel, easy to slide it back.

[Andy]

Pup55.

I have to 100% agree with you. I am actually an aviation fan but reality is reality. This form of transport must be downsized in the future. It is way too energy intensive with no prospect for any significant efficiency gain (> 50%) as is the case for ground transport. I wish I could get the guys over at http://www.airliners.net to understand this issue and stop arguing foolishly about whether the 7E7 will be better than the A330, the A380 etc.

[pea-jay]

I have a feeling the down slope of this curve will be much steeper. Remember energy is only part of the equation. When fuel costs rise, so will prices. Higher prices will crimp demand, that part's understood. But energy costs to the airline itself won't be the only thing that clips the airlines wings. Peak Oil won't singularly impact airlines. At the same time PO will be wreaking havoc on the overall economy in the form of unemployment, inflation and eventually the collapse of the financial system. Each hit from outside sector will be another nail in the coffin. As more people are forced to pay more life's essentials, travel will be seen more as unessential luxury. Demand for travel will decline, but unfortunately for airlines, they will be unable to lower the prices to adjust. Unable to fill seats and unable to lower costs (salary cuts only go so far) the creditors will come banging on their respective doors. One by one each airline will fail, depending on how leveraged they are and profitable they can operate. Only the leanest operation(s) will survive and towards the end, its debatable if even that will be enough.

The air industry, as impressive as it is, ultimately is a doomed one.

Back to my original point. When peak comes and prices shoot skyward, dont expect a gradual decline. Expect a free fall, cascading collapse. Depending on politics, various governments may attempt bailouts to stop the hemmoraging, but that will go only so far and even the subsidized operations (in the US read: re-regulated) will too, fail.

Sorry for the bad analogy, but the airline industry isn't in for a soft or even bumpy landing. It's in for a crash.

[duff_beer_dragon]

Thought this was about oxygen levels - have heard that there is less oxygen now than there was so many years ago. I think that might be more important to note than possible lack of fossil fuels, mostly because most places could easily pull their finger out and get more renewable energy generating going ; I don't know how oxygen replenishing would happen tho'.

Ozone is O3 - oxygen is O2 ; what if the ozone layer holes were to do with the planet maintaining it's O2 level balance? What if the ozone opens up to release pollutants? Ozone is released by - photocopier machines!

How about other resources - mineral deposits, ores, metals........how come there don't seem to be any 'peaks' for those? Peak diamonds? There was mention of platinum resources on another thread, that prompted me to mention atom-stacking and building up or making elements. What about peak freshwater. Peak evolution - if you ask those who claim to know what's what about humans and what they are evolved from, and their purpose, they will tend to tow the 'party' line and claim that people stopping evolving long ago, having reached a limit of sorts........

so apparently natural selection doesn't apply to us anymore, tho' somehow it did before we stopped being monkeys.

I'd find that puzzling ; nature managed so far to produce all kinds of adaptations of many evolutionary branches - but we, the so-called pinnacle of the animals, can't even use proper renewables for electricity generation and motor fuel from the start - all that time and all those pertubations to produce a species so flawed it takes only a bit of bullying to make most of them go the wrong way.

Doesn't sound plausible does it.

[Terran]

I thought about the same with oxygen. Many millions of years ago there was more oxygen, no wonder you see giant insects back then.
Most oxygen is made by phytoplanton in the oceans, we're polluting the oceans, and see whats going to happan.
You can make oxygen by electrolysis of water, it requires alot of energy input. So when we're out of oxygen, I guess we have to buy oxygen to live.

As far as the airlines industry, there is no hope. It seems like jet engines are extreamly inefficient, traveling on averge 700 feet per gallon of fuel. I'm not too sure about the slower piston engines they were around in the 40s and 50s .

[Sys1]

It's pretty cool, we will shift to sailing boat !
Travelling will really means travelling !
Anyway, i'm scared in planes.