thuja wrote:Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.
I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...
As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?
Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...
And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...
Oil-Finder wrote:thuja wrote:Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.
I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...
As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?
Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...
And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...
-- As I calculated in the 11th post here, the Bakken is already producing about 200K barrels/day. This has been rising lately and will continue to do so as many companies (both on the American and Canadian sides) drill more wells and invest more money in the play.
-- In the last post here I linked an article saying that Petrobras broke the 2 million barrel/day mark on Christmas day, and expects to maintain that throughout 2008, and expand it afterwards when some other new projects come on line.
-- In this recent article here, China's CNOOC announced it will be starting production from 2 new fields in Bohai Bay, and expects to double oil production in 5 or 6 years.
-- The Dude's graph is dated, with incorrect future assumptions on oil discoveries. The links I've provided in this thread alone have already disproven it, but I will soon do still more to disprove it. All you peak oilers think there's little exploration going on with few new discoveries being made, but you are wrong.
thuja wrote:I'm not trying to belittle any finds- they are all important...but they are like rocks compared to the boulders that used to turn up.
Oil-Finder wrote:How can you call "conservatively 50 billion barrels" of oil off the coast of Brazil a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?"
How can you call 300 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?" Even if only a quarter of that is recoverable, that's a whole new Venezuela.:
Oil-Finder wrote:This is just another example of peak oiler denial.
thuja wrote:How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.
Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.
I have never denied that there are new discoveries to be made that will help offset delones in older bigger fields.
But denial is for those who don't do enough research and understand the topic well enough. Like I said, even the most wild-eyed optimists who dream of 5 new Saudi Arabias say that a peak will happen between 2030 and 2037.
In other words...say it with me now...
A peak in oil production is coming...big discoveries or not.
When I was a child I noticed MOST of the other kids had bigger, newer, and more toys than I did. I would be lying if I said that never bothered me. However I also noticed that some of these other kids were NOT automatically happy but instead "bitter".Tanada wrote:...
What I want is irrelevant, which is something I learned as a small child.
...
Oil-Finder wrote:thuja wrote:How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.
Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.
Hmmm, let's see . . .
2 million bpd Petrobras (and rising) + 200K bpd Bakken (and rising) = 2.2 mllion bpd (and rising).
It's time to wake up!I have never denied that there are new discoveries to be made that will help offset delones in older bigger fields.
But denial is for those who don't do enough research and understand the topic well enough. Like I said, even the most wild-eyed optimists who dream of 5 new Saudi Arabias say that a peak will happen between 2030 and 2037.
In other words...say it with me now...
A peak in oil production is coming...big discoveries or not.
It is you who have not done any research on new discoveries, so the denial is yours.
So say it with me now . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . .
Even if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined.
Oil-Finder wrote:thuja, I have not mentioned the EROEI of these finds because no one has calculated what their EROEI's are.
Since these are all very recent finds, of course they aren't producing much oil yet. What - do you expect them to find a new oil field one day, and next week start pumping 1 mbd from it? By complaining that these new discoveries aren't producing vast amounts of oil yet, that's like complaining that one's newborn baby can't do calculus yet.
"OMG this newborn infant is so useless! It can't even do calculus! Wake me up when it's at least able to do algebra."
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Oil-Finder wrote:Even if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined.
Not necessarily. That depends on how many of these new Ghawar's were found, how big they were, how much capital was invested in their development, and on what the rate of decline of the old fields were.
thuja wrote:That's why it is important to look back at the last time an oil field was found that produced immense daily amounts...and that was the 70's (and mainly from the 40's/50's). All those finds since? They have never neared the enormity of production of Ghawar. So...yes...I will wait and see- and as I said- wake me up when we hit 500kb/d (1/12th of Ghawar).
Ummm...you are alone....completely. There is nobody that will back you up on this claim. It is so erronsous and without support that it makes us question your understanding of the subject. Check out the projections of any and every analyst out there. I'm afraid the only ones you may be able to quote are some obscure Ruissian scientists who believe in abiogenisis...and I sincerely hope we don't lose you to that sphere of thinking...
thuja wrote:If these old fields were pretty small compared to what has been discovered...can't you name at least a few that are surpassing their production that have been discovered in the last 30 years?
thuja wrote:Examine the last 30 years for new discoveries. Then let me know how many of them have reached production rates like Ghawar of over 5 mb/d.
There should be a few right? Just like you said, it takes a while for new discoveries to show production. Some of these newer finds (with even bigger reserves) in the last 30 years must have become as productive as Ghawar. So let me know a few of them that you can find...
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