zeke wrote:Anyone care to share their techniques for debating/discussing this with people who are convinced that there's an inexhaustible supply of oil "down there" or at least how to attack the angle that rising prices mean ONLY that oil companies want more profits; not that supply is waning?
When talking about high gasoline prices. I start about high oil prices. I say prices are high because demand has grown. Mostly from India and China. Oil prices arent high because oil companies are out to get us. I say it's a basic supply and demand question.
And thats where i stop. I dont talk about Peak Oil. I take it step by step. And for pretty much everybody, the first step is explaining high oil prices are due to high demand, and perhaps because of not growing oil production.
Most people will believe me when i say this. If i would have gone further as to saying something stupid as 'we are all doomed', they'd never listen to me again.
If i stumble upon a person who does not believe there's high oil demand (you know, the dumbest of the dumbest person). I'll say everything i want. I'll start talking about how his loved ones will probably not survive. How there will be wars. How there will be outrageous energy prices. And finally i will say, "in five years, you are gonna be thinking about me, when you find some time for some retrospection, the crazy dude that turned out to be right".
When talking about large amounts of oil. I start by saying they are right. There *is* an amazing amount of oil in the ground. But then i'll explain the whole EROEI story in the most easy way. I'll explain the bell-curve of an oil-field. I'll explain why oil in the ground today, is way different than oil in the ground a 100 years ago.
I won't start about how our future looks. I certainly won't say anything like 'we are doomed'. You have to stay credible. I'll make a joke here and there, but i will always finish with saying something like "it's just something to keep in mind, there are no guarantees for the future, dont expect the world to be the same in 5 years".