by Tyler_JC » Tue 07 Dec 2004, 15:33:47
I think we can increase efficiency by about 20-30%. After that, the increase in efficiency won't balance out the energy investment.
Here's the main problem, our economy won't survive that kind of change. If people bought less stuff, someone would be out of a job. If we drove less and bought fewer cars, GM and Ford would be hurting. Motel 6 and Holiday Inn need wasted travel to stay in the black. The stock market can't handle a decrease of any kind without a violent downward swing.
We may survive, but the economy may not. If the economy crashes, so would investments in efficiency. That's the basis of the fast crash scenario.
Also, oil production will hit a plateau. I think we may try to keep it there for as long as possible. The only way to do this is to damage existing wells with water injection and other methods. We may fall off of a production cliff when several large reserves finally give out.
Finally, will Exxon be able to raise the billions needed to build new wells if XOM drops to 58 cents a share?