Newfie wrote:The leadership issue and political issues are both much more volital and happen on shorter time lines AND are heavily influenced by social and social matters.
And, I personally believe that there are some trends just below the American awareness that are barely perceptible but also very powerful . I have only indirect evidence and could easily be wrong. My SENSE is there is something powerful afoot the very few suspect. In large part that is why I have become more quiet, I am spending more time listening.
At this point I am very uncomfortable with any predictions which involve humans.
I can hear your argument.
I am also noticing growing encouraging trends which have not yet reached mainstream (lets say rabid feminism is increasingly mocked or some members of Gen Z are increasingly speaking against social handouts etc) but I don't think that it is relevant to mid term future of West.
There is a feature known as
system inertia which will bring West to its knees before remedial actions to current malaise are efficient - assuming they have been taken in the first place.
For example:
1. About 80% of existing adult Western public are hopeless cretins which must die out before fortunes can be turned for the better.
2. Stupidity entrenched in your education system need eradication and these are strongholds of ultra-leftism which will not surrender without BIG fight.
3. Women need to come back to their box and then 5-10% of most intelligent might be licensed somehow to take part in public life like it was done in the past. Now they are major force of chaos and decay.
4. Industry need rebuilding and retooling - a project for many decades. On the top of it you will need to contend with Chinese who IMO already have overtaken West technologically and scientifically.
This will be an uphill struggle with no prospect of short to middle term success.
5. Issues related to immigrants and
thirdworldization of West are IMO intractable because certain no return points of population dynamic have been crossed.
6. Banking and corporate cancer need eradicating without killing a patient (entire economy).
And so on...
These vast
system inertia issues are intractable in short to medium term and I am quite confident that Western societies will fail in coming decades and it may take centuries to rebound, if ever.