“Wind drought” was a new to me term.
What effect will changing trends in regional wind speeds have on the future of wind energy? Very large, considering that a small change in wind speed has a big effect on the power output of a turbine (it’s related to the cube of the wind speed). Hannah Bloomfield at the University of Bristol first looks at the “wind drought” experienced in Europe this year which saw SSE in the UK report a 32% drop in power from its renewable assets. Meanwhile, the latest IPCC report suggests average European wind speeds will reduce by up to 10% as a result of climate change. Bloomfield then reviews the current state of wind modelling. The fact is near-surface wind speeds are extremely difficult to predict – much harder than surface temperatures. Different models can give very different, even opposite, results. Some show wind speeds increasing as temperatures warm, and others show decreases. A more detailed understanding – and the limits of its accuracy – is an ongoing topic of scientific research. It will be crucial for guiding investment decisions for wind, and a reminder that it would not be wise to depend too much on one technology, says Bloomfield.
https://energypost.eu/climate-change-wi ... nd-energy/Following the wind has factored in my education to sailing. It is really remarkable how the wind is effected by the shore line contours. It can shift 90° due to a low marsh. And I swear, even though I can not explain it, I have seen a under water bar strongly shift the passing wind. Sailing behind mountainous islands is a royal PITA, too close and the wind can go from 0 to 30 knots in short seconds. The wind can reverse and blow the wrong way. I have seen an islands “wind shadow” extend 8 miles, others report more. There can even be a wind shadow on the windward side. And the mountains cause rain. Books have been written in the effects, literally.
Wind forecasts are only very rough. Experienced sailors always add something like 10% inshore and 20% off shore. That is a lot because, as the article noted, the power of the wind rises (and falls) by the cube.
But I have never heard of a “wind drought”. I would have thought the wind would be ever increasing because there is more energy in the system. So I am surprised by the predicted “global stilling”, even though the explanation makes some sense. It has a direct effect on my life.
My personal question is …. Are the turbines interfering with one another? Maybe they need more room between to assure smooth flow?
But also, the turbines are always built on shallow banks. Wind and water interacts, witness waves. Waves and the bottom interact, shoal water reacts differently to wind than deep water, the waves are close spaced and steep. Maybe the it is the interaction between the near supersonic blade tips as they pass near the water surface? It is a very complicated system.