kublikhan wrote:Claims disproven.
You are linking to a lot of articles with estimates and assumptions. You're also quick to shoot the messenger.
The most important sentence in the REI article is this, in my opinion.
data from audited accounts on the capital and operating costs of 350 onshore and offshore wind farms in the United Kingdom
The problem of course, the data doesn't' seem to be available. Are they flat out lying with the numbers? Are they cherry picking? We don't know.
I then look at the daddy of all reports, Lazard, which pretty much shows what your are claiming.
https://www.lazard.com/media/451419/laz ... on-140.pdfThe problem I'm having is that the report is sprinkled with this kind of statements:
Other factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein, but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis. These additional factors, among others, could include: capacity value vs. energy value; network upgrades, transmission, congestion or other integration-related costs; significant permitting or other development costs, unless otherwise noted; and costs of complying with various environmental regulations
and also the 4 pages of "key assumptions" they show (page 16-19).
Same with your other heavy hitter "Assessing Wind Power Operating Costs in the United States"
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544993It's entirely based on survey and full of estimates
Recent All-in OpEx Estimates
Recent Estimates of OpEx Components
etc. etc.
Also if we look at Table 1 on Page 6 we see a summary of the OpEX for various years and regions.
There's no true trend that can be discerned. Yet it strikes me as interesting that the IEA estimates in fact increased from 2014 to 2020, exactly what the REI article claims. Now there's not enough data points and data certainty here, I agree. Yet it's interesting.
I think what we need is ACTUAL data. Profit/loss and balance sheets of operating wind farms. Blindly believing in some article just because it's government or your favorite university ain't good enough. Estimates and assumptions aint' good enough either.
Do you think profit/loss and balance is available from traded companies? I'm not deep enough into any of this to know.
I'm not here to proof my point, I'm here to learn and understand, so I'm certainly willing to agree with you if you can provide the data to backup your claims.
I understand you motion the Manhattan article away because you don't like its message nor its messenger.
But can we take a look at it please? I'm struggling myself. For example on page 14 we've got this
EIA estimated the real LCOE for offshore wind facilities beginning service in 2025 as between $102.68/MWh and $155.55/MWh, with an average price of $122.25/MWh (2019$).(note 62)
They reference to note 62, the Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2020.
First I wasn't able to find the 2020 report, only the 2022.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/el ... ration.pdfNevertheless I wasn't able to find their claimed number in it. Are you able to point out what they did here? Did they cook the number? Did they pick the wrong one? Maybe you can help. I think it's important to exactly pinpoint where they lied, because then we can invalidate their whole article.