Newfie wrote:Good point. 2.5 billion people eager to close the Prosperoty Gap in just those 2 countries. Throw in Bangladesh and Pakistan and it closer to 4 billion, almost half the worlds population.
FLAMEOUT wrote:Natural gas under fire in the UK also.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13726 ... ate-change
Hydrogen as a replacement to methane being touted - where will this come from electrolysis using electricity ?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -time.html
The UK currently generates up to half of our electricity with Natural Gas - bit windy here today so lots of wind generation
https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?_k=xo2xsl
Cold dark years ahead - unless you live in China, India etc who seemingly could not care less.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
FLAMEOUT wrote:Natural gas under fire in the UK also.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13726 ... ate-change
Hydrogen as a replacement to methane being touted - where will this come from electrolysis using electricity ?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... -time.html
The UK currently generates up to half of our electricity with Natural Gas - bit windy here today so lots of wind generation
https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?_k=xo2xsl
Cold dark years ahead - unless you live in China, India etc who seemingly could not care less.
I agree. This whole banning of household natural gas seems really stupid to me when most of the electricity comes from fossil fuels. Two scenarios:Outcast_Searcher wrote:Once most electricity generation is via truly green energy, then EV's, not using as much NG, etc. will make far more sense. Until then, it's kind of a mess, though NG is better than coal, as far as CO2 production and pollution IF there aren't too many large leaks being ignored.
Electric Resistance HeatingElectric resistance heating is 100% energy efficient in the sense that all the incoming electric energy is converted to heat. However, most electricity is produced from coal, gas, or oil generators that convert only about 30% of the fuel's energy into electricity. Because of electricity generation and transmission losses, electric heat is often more expensive than heat produced in homes or businesses that use combustion appliances, such as natural gas, propane, and oil furnaces.
THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA DO ENACT AS FOLLOWS:
SECTION 1. (a) This act shall be known as The 100 Percent Clean Energy Act of 2018.
(b) The Legislature finds and declares that the Public Utilities Commission, State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, and State Air Resources Board should plan for 100 percent of total retail sales of electricity in California to come from eligible renewable energy resources and zero-carbon resources by December 31, 2045.
Pops wrote:CA is attempting to eliminate carbon by 2045, ICE cars by 2035. By every measure of the nominal thrust of this board you would think that would be a praiseworthy exercise.THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA DO ENACT AS FOLLOWS:
SECTION 1. (a) This act shall be known as The 100 Percent Clean Energy Act of 2018.
(b) The Legislature finds and declares that the Public Utilities Commission, State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, and State Air Resources Board should plan for 100 percent of total retail sales of electricity in California to come from eligible renewable energy resources and zero-carbon resources by December 31, 2045.
But instead, dramatic efforts at mitigating GW (and tangentially, PO) are now deemed by the remaining former peak oilers as "virtue signaling" and the benefits of burning carbon extolled:
Yeahbut it is cheap
yeahbut the flame is even and controllable when simmering my favorite lemon meringue to perfection
And even Kub thinks eliminating carbon wherever and whenever is silly because... most electricity is generated from carbon.
When of course that is the point of trying to eliminate it. CA is attempting to do away with all carbon generation by 2045.
Has this board simply gone over to echoing whatever blather is spouted by the Murdocks? Maybe someone can direct me to the 10 gal Every Flush and Liberate The Showerheads thread? In the enviro subforum probably? You know those Bangladeshis are flushing 10-20-30 gallons at a time, why should WE have to flush twice!? It's not FAIR!
Pretty sad this place still has the same name.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Don’t Blame Renewables for California’s Energy WoesLess than one month after California experienced rolling blackouts, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti sent out this tweet urging his constituents to conserve power to avoid more potential outage. Many California officials, particularly Governor Gavin Newsom, brand the state as a leader in a variety of areas and take pride in lecturing others on how to best promote clean energy. While it’s true that California relies on clean energy more so than other states, it’s difficult to accept advice from a state that has accelerated renewable development absent any strategy to account for the sources’ current shortcomings.
California gets about a third of its electricity from renewables, which isn’t a bad thing in and of itself. However, with battery storage technology still in development, sources such as solar and wind cannot provide around-the-clock reliable energy. This becomes especially problematic when states like California are abandoning other energy sources in order to race towards its politically-driven targets of achieving 60 percent renewable electricity by 2030 and 100 percent by 2045.
To be fair, some of California’s recent energy troubles can be attributed to heatwaves, which have increased air conditioning demand, and wildfires, which have led some grid systems to experience failures. But those blaming the grid instability solely on these factors are being dishonest, as California has been dealing with energy-related issues prior to these recent developments thanks to its own policies.
Specifically, California’s blind adding of solar and wind facilities has led it to frequently produce massive amounts of energy during the day, and the state often has to get rid of excess production by selling it to other states at cheap prices. However, given that solar production drops off at nightfall, California is then forced to import electricity from other states to satisfy peak demands. The problem is that with current hot temperatures throughout the west, other states are experiencing higher demand for air conditioning as well and are less apt to export their electricity production to California. This reliance on other states would not be so necessary if California was not shutting down other types of power facilities and forcing utility companies to purchase lithium ion batteries that aren’t even online yet. It’s astonishing that the same government officials who demand that we “believe science” choose to pursue energy policies that blatantly disregard science.
To be clear, pursuing renewable energy development is good policy and forward-looking. However, when advanced blindly for the sake of political optics, energy grid complications are inevitable. Presently, current technology makes renewable power on its own insufficient, and these limitations are not overcome through aggressive mandates or politically-motivated decisions. Rather, we can lead a smoother transition to renewables with policies like an all-of-the-above energy approach. As opposed to a mandate driven approach, an all-of-the-above strategy will ensure continued grid stability and reduced emissions, all without the California-style blackouts in the meantime.
Why California Keeps Having BlackoutsWhen rolling blackouts darkened parts of California this month, Frank Wolak, an economics professor and energy-markets expert at Stanford University, had a painful sense of déjà vu. Mr. Wolak was among the people who helped California chart a course out of crisis in 2001, when a poorly conceived state electricity-deregulation law resulted in frequent power shortages, sporadic blackouts, astronomical wholesale prices and market manipulation. As Californians again experience rolling blackouts, and millions more are threatened with losing power, a warning that continues through Monday, Mr. Wolak said it was clear that “California policy makers completely forgot the lessons from the crisis…in their rush to go green.”
Once again, a big part of the problem is that California regulators have left the state dangerously exposed to buying large amounts of imported electricity on the spot market during peak periods on days when there is extreme energy demand—what Mr. Wolak likened to going to the airport on Thanksgiving and expecting to fly standby. Only this time, the crunchtime for the state’s grid operator isn’t the actual power demand peak in late afternoon—it is when the sun starts to fall in early evening, and the renewable energy the state is increasingly dependent on begins to wane. On many days, California’s grid operator now has to find 10,000 to 15,000 megawatts of replacement power—sometimes 25% to 50% of what it needs to keep the lights on—during a three-hour period as solar, and to a lesser degree, wind power, falls off.
California regulators have known since at least 2017 that the state could face a power capacity shortfall, although the state grid operator thought it would squeak by this summer. In 2018, the state utility commission asked the grid operator, as well as utilities and power generators, to weigh in on whether additional resources were needed.
The California Independent System Operator and Southern California Edison said they felt the state could be short at least 2,000 megawatts of capacity by 2021. Experts at the utility commission flagged reliance on imports from other states as dicey, noting that many coal- and gas-fired power plants in those states were closing.
Last year, the commission ordered utilities and retail power suppliers to procure 3,300 megawatts of additional capacity between 2021 and 2023, calling it a “ ‘least regrets’ strategy, since electricity shortages would most certainly lead to regrets.” It also recommended to the state’s water agency that coastal gas-fired power plants—heavy users of water for cooling—be allowed to run beyond mandated retirement dates.
What caused California’s rolling blackouts? Climate change and poor planningCalifornia suffered its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years because energy planners didn’t take climate change into account and didn’t line up the right power sources to keep the lights on after sundown, according to a damning self-evaluation released Tuesday by three state agencies. But officials should have been prepared for the climate-driven extreme heat that caused electricity demand to soar and briefly left the nation’s largest state without sufficient power supplies, the state’s Energy Commission, Independent System Operator and Public Utilities Commission acknowledged in a preliminary “root cause analysis.”
State agencies failed to adequately plan for that type of heat event despite knowing how quickly the world is heating up, the report concluded. They also failed to direct electricity providers to buy sufficient power supplies to cover the evening hours when solar panels go offline. And they created complex energy market mechanisms that masked the inadequacies. “The combination of these factors was an extraordinary event. But it is our responsibility and intent to plan for such events, which are becoming increasingly common in a world rapidly being impacted by climate change,” wrote Independent System Operator President Elliot Mainzer, Public Utilities Commission President Marybel Batjer and Energy Commission Chair David Hochschild.
Careful planning to ensure adequate power supplies will become even more important as California phases out fossil fuels and moves toward 60% renewable energy by 2030 and 100% climate-friendly energy by 2045, as required by state law. “Our planning processes may have been a year or two off on when we needed to have the resources available,” said Ed Randolph, director of the Public Utilities Commission’s energy division. “We’ll absolutely need more steel in the ground.”
The root cause analysis also faults market mechanisms put in place by the Independent System Operator, a nonprofit corporation that oversees the power grid for most of the state. A program known as convergence bidding, in particular, is meant to help keep electricity prices steady but instead “masked tight supply conditions” during the August heat wave, the analysis concluded.
Preliminary Root Cause AnalysisDear Governor Newsom:
In response to your August 17, 2020 letter, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), and California Energy Commission (CEC) have jointly prepared the attached Preliminary Root Cause Analysis (Preliminary Analysis) of the two rotating outages in the CAISO footprint on August 14 and 15, 2020. In our response, we also recognized our shared responsibility for the power outages many Californians unnecessarily endured.
In Transitioning to a Reliable, Clean, and Affordable Resource Mix, Resource Planning Targets Have Not Kept Pace to Lead to Sufficient Resources That Can Be Relied Upon to Meet Demand in the Early Evening Hours.
Preliminary Recommendations
1. Update the resource and reliability planning targets to better account for a transitioning electricity resource mix to meet the clean energy goals of the state during critical hours of grid need.
California power shortages stem from lack of firm generation capacity: expertsCalifornia faced the prospect of rolling power blackouts for the first time in almost 20 years, and stakeholders are pinning the blame on regulators' failure to heed warnings that shortages could occur unless steps were taken to ensure adequate resources were on call to cover peak demand periods. "We told the CPUC 4,700 MW was needed through 2022 and that the gap started in 2020," ISO CEO Steve Berberich said during an Aug. 17 briefing. "Despite all that, only 3,300 MW was authorized for procurement, but that's not starting [until] 2021."
The ISO in August 2019 warned of a looming system resource adequacy deficiency and urged the PUC to develop a procurement plan for 2020-2022 to meet reliability needs. In addition, concerned that the rise of community choice aggregators had splintered the state's central resource planning capabilities, former PUC President Michael Picker has repeatedly warned lawmakers and commissioners that California risked another energy crisis without a plan to ensure that all load-serving entities met resource adequacy requirements.
During the Aug. 17 briefing, which was held to address rolling Aug. 14-15 blackouts in California and the prospect of more to come, Berberich said the state's resource adequacy program was broken and must be fixed because it does not address load requirements after the sun goes down and solar generation is gone. And he suggested that much of the problem stems from the PUC's failure to act on ISO warnings.
Gas-fired resource commitments
Former Western Power Trading Forum Executive Director Gary Ackerman in an interview said battery storage installations in California have nowhere near enough capacity or duration to ensure the electricity generated by existing solar facilities is available at night. Grid-connected solar accounts for about 12,000 MW of capacity in California, while wind generation now supplies only about 4,000 MW in the state, Ackerman said. And Berberich said California currently has only about 200 MW of storage.
But the amount of generation that is not already committed under contracts in or outside the state is diminishing because owners cannot stay in business selling energy during peak periods alone when solar is no longer available. "They've retired plants outside California, too, so power imports are off."
CAISO approves hybrid storage policies as California preps to add 1.5 GW by 2022
Nov. 24, 2020
The system operator moved quickly to approve the proposal in light of the more than 1,500 MW of storage capacity expected to come online in California by the end of next year. This is part of around 3,300 MW of new procurement that the state is seeking to replace retiring fossil fuel plants by 2023.
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/caiso- ... of/589609/
The first nuclear power plants reduce their output
Because of the heat wave, several nuclear power plants have to reduce their electricity production. The transport of coal on the water is also restricted.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sozia ... 20916.html
California blackouts are Public Utilities Commission’s fault, grid operator saysDuring the grid operator’s board meeting Monday, Berberich faulted the commission for failing to ensure adequate power capacity on hot summer evenings, when electricity from the state’s growing fleet of rooftop solar panels and sprawling solar farms rapidly drops to zero but demand for air conditioning remains high. It’s a challenge that will only intensify as California adds more solar panels and wind turbines to meet its targets of 60% renewable electricity by 2030 and 100% emissions-free power by 2045.
“For many years, we have pointed out to the [Public Utilities Commission] that there was inadequate power available during the net peak,” Berberich said, referring to the evening period when solar production dries up but cooling demand remains high. “The situation we are in could have been avoided.”
Pops wrote:And nukes in a heat wave have their own problems—The first nuclear power plants reduce their output
Because of the heat wave, several nuclear power plants have to reduce their electricity production. The transport of coal on the water is also restricted.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/sozia ... 20916.html
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
kublikhan wrote:Look at that date: Nov. 24, 2020. Why did it take so long to finally start moving on the storage front? Did it really take rolling blackouts for them to figure out that after the sun goes down solar panels don't generate electricity? If the storage technologies were not ready yet then just leave the old generation in place until it is. Don't just throw up solar panels with no storage or backup for when the sun goes down. Then at the same time tear down your existing power plants. You don't need to be on the cutting edge to figure this stuff out.
Tanada wrote:Really Pops is that the best you can do? Power plants in upland Germany which are effectively isolated to using mountain rivers have problems in a heatwave and we should throw away all their potential as a result?
Same story Kub linkedThe rotating power outages didn’t last long and affected only a small fraction of the state’s 40 million people. Just under half a million homes and businesses lost power for as little as 15 minutes and as long as 2½ hours on Aug. 14, with another 321,000 utility customers going dark for anywhere from eight to 90 minutes the following evening.
Tanada wrote:And every one of those examples was designed in the 1960's-1970's and built in the 1970's-1980's and have been cranking out carbon free electricity for 40+ years.
Pops wrote:Tanada wrote:And every one of those examples was designed in the 1960's-1970's and built in the 1970's-1980's and have been cranking out carbon free electricity for 40+ years.
Well that's kind of the point isn't it? Nukes are old, carbon free tech that have been around for 40+ years.
So where is the massive build out of nukes in the US that would save us the messy inconvenience of boiling in our own skins?
Blame whomever but as we should have learned the last couple of years, politicians do what they must to get reelected. If there were popular will to build out nuke we'd be doing it by now. I don't like old fashion nukes and don't know enough about newer versions but it is obvious there is no market for them in any event.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:
A big part of the disconnect in the USA is the faction of the green movement that opposes all nuclear power no matter how safe or efficient due to overblown panic that comes with the word "radiation".
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