MonteQuest wrote:Here’s an example of the misleading headlines I see so often.
“In a First, Renewable Energy Is Poised to Eclipse Coal in U.S.”
Yes, but not because renewable growth will overtake it, but that coal will be taken off-line in lieu of cheaper NG and renewables.
That's how it always works when a sea change is approaching: you first notice it in edge cases. Ex: renewables overtake coal in April, a time of seasonal low coal demand. Then renewables start overtaking coal in additional months. Finally, renewables pass coal and stay ahead.
MonteQuest wrote:When electricity demand returns, so will much of coal’s participation.
The
EIA doesn't agree. They feel the rebound in coal will be small relative to it's decline this year. Coal production down 170 million short tons this year, production up 28 million short tons in 2021. Coal's decline is projected to continue long term as well.
The electricity generation mix continues to experience a rapid rate of change, with renewables the fastest-growing source of electricity generation through 2050 because of continuing declines in the capital costs for solar and wind that are supported by federal tax credits and higher state-level renewables targets. With slow load growth and increasing electricity production from renewables, U.S. coal-fired and nuclear electricity generation declines; most of the decline occurs by the mid-2020s.
Annual Energy Outlook 2020MonteQuest wrote:Efficiency gains are also being reached, as I noted before.
You claimed it was so, however I rebuttaled this point with several sources.
MonteQuest wrote:This is true to a large degree. However, investment dollars, reduced subsidies, and diminishing returns are always a factor. Those massive growth rates were just not sustainable. Efficiency gains are also being reached, as I noted before. But my point was that modern renewables like wind, solar, and geothermal are the growth leaders--which is why I focus on them. And you drive home my point; no matter how cheap they get, how fast they grow, or how much capacity is installed, they can't capture but a minuscule amount of market share.
What an odd opinion to have in lieu of simple projections that show wind and solar gaining market share year after year until they are half of the market by 2050:
Global growth trend
However, BloombergNEF has forecast that by 2050 two-thirds of the world will be run on zero-carbon energy, with wind and solar supplying 48% of global electricity by that time. Specifically, solar is expected to rise from its current 2% of world electricity generation to 22% in 2050, while wind is anticipated to climb from today’s 5% to 26%.
Wind and solar energy now cheapest forms of power in two-thirds of the worldMonteQuest wrote:Did you read the post by Euan Mearns I posted above that says unless a new technology is developed, grid storage is an impossible dream?
You mean for 100% renewables? I did not propose such a scenario. In fact I specifically said I was not proposing such a scenario. Other that such a strange binary scenario, grid storage has been a proven technology for decades.
The oil barrel is half-full.