wildbourgman wrote:I think dissident's post sums it up, we are playing word games in order to claim we are a net exporter.
figures don’t lie, but liars figure
I also think you have to take into account how many of those added bbls are coming from companies that have never made a profit.
The EIA data is about adding up the barrels. Having filled out their forms from the industry perspective, the only economic question they asked was a backhanded one, and that was the companies current reserve estimates.
And so when barrels headed out are less than barrels headed it, even ol' Monte Meyers could do the math on that one.
wildbourgman wrote:Now as far as Armageddon's view on an economic crash, is being really early on a call the same as being wrong?
He was claiming the crash happening back in 2006/2007. So yes, 12 or 13 years later it is completely accurate to say his call was way early. I haven't reached the point in his written record to know when he began playing the broken clock/kick the can angle, I would postulate it would be post 2010/11 when it became obvious that his earlier hysteria hadn't worked out. I'll bet him and Short were both REAL excited in 2008 though, seeing their proposed Rapture event nearing fruition.
wildbourgman wrote:well it depends on if you lost money on that call. I don't think you can fault the common sense analysis that we are going down a bad road with our current direction.
A point that as far as I'm concerned has been valid since Aug 15, 1971. And is meaningless if it is just used to predict doom tomorrow, wait two days, and repeat endlessly. I didn't begin to get irritated about it all until Ronny was running the joint.
wildbourgman wrote:Would you fault someone for telling a heroin addict that they are going to crash and burn if they don't stop just because they lasted a lot longer than expected before they OD?
Of course not. I would fault someone for telling the heroin addict they are doing to die tomorrow because of their habit, waiting 2 days, and then repeating themselves endlessly while the addict happily continues on their merry way, doing sometimes better, sometimes worse, and the warnings have exactly the value that Armys incessant McDoom calls do. None.
Did you miss the part where peak oilers tried this game for a century now, and came off looking quite the worse for it after the most recent round?
wildbourgman wrote:No you wouldn't fault that good advice, you would tell them that the early advice would have worked even better had it been heeded in a timely manner.
Of course no one would fault good advice. But how many times does the parrot tell them they are going to die, and them not dying, before you tune out the parrot. The heroin addict in a short period of time doesn't pay any more attention to a parrot than the scientific and analytic folks did peak oilers. Endless repetition certainly has never been mistaken for proof of concept.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"