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Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Cog » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 05:56:47

Trump should begin unrestricted warfare against Iranian naval assets and other military infrastructure. A land invasion and occupation is not necessary for the US to achieve its goals in the Persian Gulf.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 08:47:51

Newfie wrote:
As to trust that Ibon and Tanada are discussing....I believe that the world financial economy now more than ever relies upon trust to function. Trust and shipping to move the trade that props up the economy. One need not physically start a WWIII to do great harm to the fiscal systems that global trade depends upon.


The issue of trust is not about how honest or accurate any particular data is. It is about investors and the public buying into whatever the narrative is. The system holds itself up based on a tenous assessment that everyone is still in the game and that there is no imminent momentum heading toward the exit. So this trust is really based on trusting that the buy in and participation is holding strong.

In spite of all the stops and hedge funds and purs and market neutral hedge funds and currency hedges and fancy algorhythms once enough momentum of distrust grows there is no stopping the panic.

Two jetliners crashed on Boing's new jet and folks started cancelling flights.

Trust is about a confidence game in all aspects; financial, political, public, civic, corporate, religion, climate science.

We live in this weird world where the savvy know the game is rigged but they continue to play warily watchinh the confidence borometer knowing that at some point if it dips south with a certain momentum then what looks like a correction could get out of control.

Strangely there is also a funny kind of dysfunctional resilience in the system with everyone agreeing to play along. Until some point no one can really predict. There is a fickleness at play as well. A seemingly minor event could prove to be the beginning of the cascade.

Anyone who claims to have a bead on this is a liar.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 09:59:00

Ibon,

I completely agree with this perspective. And I don’t see any dissonance with Tanada POV. It’s trusting the players in the game to continue the game, not that they are trust worthy but that their self interest rides upon the games continuation.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 10:23:37

Newfie wrote:Ibon,

I completely agree with this perspective. And I don’t see any dissonance with Tanada POV. It’s trusting the players in the game to continue the game, not that they are trust worthy but that their self interest rides upon the games continuation.


Indeed, never assume human nature has changed. The wealthy and powerful don't have any desire to lose their wealth and status and they go to extremes to maintain that wealth and status.

In one way this is good because it creates stability which lets you know what you need to do to change your social status. In another way it is terrible because if you lack physical attractiveness, charisma, or an ability to accumulate wealth there is a very real ceiling on how far you individually can progress up the social ladder.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:44:19

First of all, if the US knows the truth about the video then they shouldn't have to convince anyone before responding. They may, as a courtesy, notify Putin. But they couldn't trust him not to rat out what they were about to do to the Iranians.

Trump's big problem here is that war with Iran would be over way too fast for it to influence the election. He wouldn't dare engage in full scale war with them because it would brutalize his legacy. Iran is huge. It's a much larger quagmire to enter into than Iraq was. Whatever he might do in response would have to be akin to sinking their navy. That sort of thing would only leave the situation well in the past come election time.

And he can't be certain that the thousands of mercenaries he has put into place around Venezuela will have succeeded in prepping that next situation enough so that it can take Iran's place. So, is Trump dilly dallying because he wants a conflict that will ensure his re-election, or is the video a deep fake? I don't suppose it has to be a deep fake to be fake, but we've only just been warned in the current round of marketing annoyance how good deep fakes have become. Just in case those can be forensically determined, they could still have faked it with a crew dressed up like Iranians, on a boat that anyone can make. My bet is, though, that Trump realizes that the timing of a response now wouldn't benefit his chances in 2020. Without Venezuela, there is always the coalition building exercise, and the time it takes, that can accomplish his goals. That way, he could get into a quagmire, but it would be an international one, which wouldn't tarnish his time in office nearly so badly. I wonder what signal, if it was an Iranian action, from the US convinced the Iranians that this was something they could take a chance on?
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:47:26

Why we persist so steadfast in the consumer driven economic system is the flipside of why this stability based on confidence is not only dysfunctional but also a drag and inertia on making any significant changes.

For example, for how many more years or decades will we continue to make major investments in coastal properties and prop up realestate values in these areas.

So this dysfunctional stability is using the metric of confidence instead of real physical parameters. There is a deadly side of this.

Also cowardly. As in avoiding pain in letting cyclical corrections do their necesarry cleansing.

Every body so worried about their fake digital welth losing value if we actually let reality determine real value.

Sick perverted puppies have we become
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 11:59:31

There are certainly motives with some actors to baiting the USA to engage militarily with Iran.

Some of these actors might believe Trump is stupid enough to take the bait but there are level heads behind the scenes that Trump will defer to.

Another example of dysfunctional stability is Trumps ego. Since this is paramount for him he will do everything possible to not go down in history as having made a fool of himself with Iran.

On the oherhand if he can enrichen himself at the expense of his base he might even sacrifice a bit of vanity.

Wealth and status and ego create a push pull
In the minds of the wealthy that are part of any calculation.

The rest of us be damned

That is why I would never send a son of my blood into any military conflict when considering the motives of todays leaders
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 12:16:12

There is also the possibility that these attacks, since they are brazen in nature, actually go hand in hand with something else that is about to happen. Remember how there was a leader in the North of Afghanistan who was killed by a fake camera crew in the days leading up to 911? This is a larger and harder to organize machination than that. Is there about to be something like a revolution somewhere? Maybe shipping needs to be slowed, or cut off, for some entirely different reason?
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 12:35:45

One part wants to engage in these questions and another part that so deeply understands the nefarious manipulations that I prefer to retreat into the natural world having little passion left indulging in human depravity.

Levels of dysfunction reach proportions that withdrawal seems to be where one finds the most solid ground.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 13:02:20

Anyone interested in this event would do well to read the gCaptain article cited in my above post as it goes into some detail about what level of provocation was required to push Regan to action. If those same standards apply today we are far off from military engagement.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 14:57:39

Newfie wrote:Anyone interested in this event would do well to read the gCaptain article cited in my above post as it goes into some detail about what level of provocation was required to push Regan to action. If those same standards apply today we are far off from military engagement.


Very interesting reading. Thank you.

The gCaptain report makes the point that the situation is different today. During the Reagan Presidency there was a war between Iraq and Iran and they were both targeting tankers as part of that war. US ships and US-flagged ships were hit during that war, and the US decided to intervene to stop the attacks on US ships.

Today there is no war. There have been six ships attacked, all apparently by the Iranians as part of a terror campaign. Back in the day Reagan tried sending US warships into the Gulf with the oil tankers, but during the attacks going on now four ships have already been attacked while in port in the Gulf, so that technique won't work today.

Terror attacks are always a very difficult problem, but since we seem to have good evidence the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and their small boats are involved, I think the US should blow up one of the coastal bases where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases small boats like the one seen on the video. As we learned in the run up to 9/11, its very dangerous not to respond in force to small jihadi terror attacks because it only encourages them to try bigger and bigger attacks. We should take them out now.

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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 18:20:47

Plantagenet wrote:
Shaved Monkey wrote:Operator of tanker says sailors saw 'flying objects' just before attack

TOKYO

The Japanese operator ship operator of one of two oil tankers attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday said that sailors on board its vessel, the Kokuka Courageous, saw "flying objects" just before the attack, suggesting the tanker wasn't damaged by mines.


Not really. The "flying objects" were probably drones. We know the Iranians have drone capability and the presence of drones doesn't mean there weren't mines.

Shaved Monkey wrote:Speaking at a news conference in Tokyo, Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo Co, said he believes the flying objects seen by the sailors could be bullets


You can't see bullets. They move much too fast.

Shaved Monkey wrote:...above water line


The video shows an Iranian boat coming in and pulling the magnetic limpet mine off the hull. Obviously the limpet mine was placed on the hull above the water line exactly the same way, i.e. an Iranian boat swooped in and attached the two mines above the water line. When one didn't explode they returned and collected it to hide the evidence. But the US caught them in the act using a drone with video capability.

limpet-mine-tanker-attack.

Cheers!

Pretty sure they would have said if they saw a drone
They where there
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 19:27:09

Shaved Monkey wrote:Pretty sure they would have said if they saw a drone


The crew reportedly says they saw "bullets" but that doesn't make any sense. People can't see bullets.....they move much too fast to be seen.

And irregardless of what the crew thought they saw, we know there was a drone "flying around" in that area.

The film taken of Iranians removing an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of burning oil tanker was taken by a drone.

That means there was a drone there.

The US says the Iranians fired a missile at one of the US drones overflying the site of the oil tanker attacks.

That means there was a drone there.

Time to accept the facts.

There was at least one drone flying around there.

Image
Imagery taken by a DRONE of Iranians removing a limpet mine from a damaged oil tanker

Cheers!
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 00:03:34

Much clearer pictures are emerging of the Iranian boat. The upper right picture is in the vicinity of the grainy video earlier released which purports to show the mine being removed. The trouble with this picture is that I cannot see any obvious mine in the area where the video "shows" them removing it (which should be somewhere between the tall man on the right and his shadow). So I leave you with a spot the mine competition (probably similar to spot Weapons of Mass Destruction of an earlier era)
Image

Also the pictures of the boat (from above) are close and clear, but again I cannot see the mine. There are boxes that look like ammunition boxes, which it could be in, or they could be just ammunition boxes.

A further puzzle for me, is that the casual way people are standing around does not seem in keeping with removing an explosive devise.

Link (video can be accessed at link) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48671319
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 14:28:41

So I leave you with a spot the mine competition (probably similar to spot Weapons of Mass Destruction of an earlier era)


The obvious conclusion is that Amazon has a little more work to do on its drone delivery system. Inside of that hall are the parts to a 6.3 cubic foot Kenmore refrigerator freezer with an expired warranty. The Ayatollah Khomeini was going to put his beer in it. The Iranians are responsible; they bought the beer.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 15:15:37

EdwinSm wrote: I leave you with a spot the mine competition


The US NAVY has already won your competition.

-----------------------------------

So far there have been six tankers damaged in this area---these two near the straights and for earlier ones.

What do you think is punching holes in the hulls of the tankers and starting them on fire if it isn't the Iranians setting limpet mines?

Cheers!
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 18:46:32

Iran threatens US aircraft carriers with missile strikes

iran-threatens-US-aircraft-carriers-precision-ballistic-missiles-

Image
The US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and support naval vessels were sent to the middle east in May

Lets pray to god the Iranians aren't stupid enough to actually attack the Lincoln or any other US Navy vessels.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 19:03:48

Plantagenet wrote:Iran threatens US aircraft carriers with missile strikes
The US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and support naval vessels were sent to the middle east in May

Lets pray to god the Iranians aren't stupid enough to actually attack the Lincoln or any other US Navy vessels.


Considering that the US doesn't really depend on ME oil, it would seem more appropriate for those countries that actually DO depend on ME oil to provide a naval presence.
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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 18 Jun 2019, 19:22:23

yellowcanoe wrote:Considering that the US doesn't really depend on ME oil, it would seem more appropriate for those countries that actually DO depend on ME oil to provide a naval presence.


Actually, the US still imports a surprising amount of oil form the ME. According to EIA figures released in May 2019, we import about 10 million bbls of oil per day. A lot of that comes from Canada, but about 29% of the imported oil comes from OPEC countries, with about 9% of it from Saudi and another 5% from Iraq---two countries that reply on oil tankers moving through the Gulf Of Oman to export their oil.

EIA: US Oil Imports

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Re: Gulf of Oman tanker attacks

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 06:13:32

The USA is in the position of being the global policeman and the role of protecting the global economy falls on our shoulders. While we may well debate the wisdom of this situation it is what it is.

It doesn’t matter much where the oil goes, it goes into oiling the economy.

The difficulty the USA is having is that to the rest of the world we are seen as putting the flow of oil at risk because of our policies.
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