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Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 26 May 2019, 06:57:37

Addendum to Kaiser message:

In case you're wondering if I am a hypocrite, when I was called up to serve that's exactly what I did. What normal 18-year-old boy wants to spend two years of his life in a totally foreign world engaged in life and death issues. The only mitigating factor was an overriding sense of immortality in the sense that I would never be killed, always somebody else. I would have much preferred "grabbing pussy" for two years instead.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Cog » Sun 26 May 2019, 08:44:49

Was there something illegal about using deferments? If so, you might want to ask Bill Clinton about that.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 26 May 2019, 11:52:22

derhundistlos wrote:Yes, Newfie, you are right, except I could not allow Kaiser's, at minimum, disingenuous comment to go uncorrected. I did not broach the subject. I merely responded.

That being said, whether people like it or not, politics is right in the center of climate change and mitigation. Our ability to mitigate climate change as well as numerous other equally disturbing ecological catastrophes like the Mass Extinction Emergency depends upon leadership along with the timing and extent to which we respond. We now have a president who categorically denies the existence of climate change, which means we are kicking the can further down the road.


My sense is that the current political system is so locked into their narcissistic self they can focus on nothing else. And that goes for big parties. They are no longer able to solicit high quality candidates for office or mount a meaningful platform. Perhaps it’s because the political stream is almost entirely lawyers who have an extremely skewed view of the physical world. Don’t know, guessing.

This may be because as we urbanize and move from blue collar and especially agrarian jobs people have lost so much touch with nature they can’t understand the issues. Guessing again.

But in any case I’m hearing nothing meaningful about mitigation or adaption. If there is to be a movement it will have to come from some other source.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 26 May 2019, 12:46:04

Just in case you were wondering, Newfie and myself both served during the Vietnam era. I was at an isolated duty site in Alaska during the Cold War, and we practiced nuclear detonation drills.

Furthermore, I agree with you assessment that climate change is a political topic. So is peak oil, and that one will end up hurting us much more, as we basicly live off of crops grown by oil fuels and there are no adequate substitutes to keep 8 billlion folks fed.

But I repeat, with a few notable exceptions, all candidates and elected officials are corrupt, and seek office for their own enrichment. The elections determine who gets wealthy but political ideology is not served by electing one party or the other, as they all act the same.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 26 May 2019, 12:58:55

Ask here is a real article on adaption. The seed bank is melting and they have to modify it.


“A lot of water went into the start of the tunnel and then it froze to ice, so it was like a glacier when you went in,” she told the Guardian. Fortunately, the meltwater did not reach the vault itself, the ice has been hacked out, and the precious seeds remain safe for now at the required storage temperature of -18C.

But the breach has questioned the ability of the vault to survive as a lifeline for humanity if catastrophe strikes. “It was supposed to [operate] without the help of humans, but now we are watching the seed vault 24 hours a day,” Aschim said. “We must see what we can do to minimise all the risks and make sure the seed bank can take care of itself.”
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 26 May 2019, 13:18:17

Thanks for all of your service!

Here's a study that some might find interesting and/or discomfitting:

The Only Thing, Historically, That's Curbed Inequality: Catastrophe


Plagues, revolutions, massive wars, collapsed states—these are what reliably reduce economic disparities

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... ce/517164/

"Throughout history, only massive, violent shocks that upended the established order proved powerful enough to flatten disparities in income and wealth. They appeared in four different guises: mass-mobilization warfare, violent and transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic epidemics."
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 26 May 2019, 14:02:19

dohboi wrote:Thanks for all of your service!

Here's a study that some might find interesting and/or discomfitting:

The Only Thing, Historically, That's Curbed Inequality: Catastrophe


Plagues, revolutions, massive wars, collapsed states—these are what reliably reduce economic disparities

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... ce/517164/

"Throughout history, only massive, violent shocks that upended the established order proved powerful enough to flatten disparities in income and wealth. They appeared in four different guises: mass-mobilization warfare, violent and transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic epidemics."


I am reminded once again of a talk I attended by Richard Heinberg in Yellow Springs Ohio back sometime in 2005 at one of the first Peak OIl conferences in North America. I have mentioned this several times here on this site through the years but it is worth bringing up again.

Richard said and I am paraphrasing somewhat... " Real revolution happens when the physical underpinnings that hold up a civilization become undermined"

That was one of the early "light bulb" moments for me in understanding the bigger picture of human overshoot, climate change and peak oil and more importantly what it will take to move toward any kind of meaningful mitigation.

The inertia has embedded us so deeply into the dysfunctional system we all depend on that there is no real revolution possible through human agency. It can only happened when events or consequences undermine the foundation of all that which is inherently unsustainable. That foundation has physical components and cultural components.

You want a clean slate to build up a new paradigm? Catastrophe.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 26 May 2019, 18:48:21

Yeah, I can see that. Don’t like it but it sounds about right.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby eclipse » Sun 26 May 2019, 21:57:10

The Gutenberg press, electricity, light globe, transistor, micro-chip, smart-phone, etc. These were all revolutions.
When something 10 times cheaper than the previous way of doing things, or 10 times more attractive comes along, then there's a revolution. The automated robot EV taxi is nearly here. Without the salary of the cab driver to pay, it will swing the balance. One of these robot taxis could replace 10 family cars. It's potentially the end of private motor vehicle ownership (for the masses, anyway, because the masses simply won't want to buy them any more.)

And that's just one revolution. The other could be a gradual dawning on our culture that suburbia is isolating and lonely, and that New Urban villages have a heart about them that is simply missing in suburbia. Young people that live in inner-city environments are gradually experiencing this, and there are signs of clever mixed use town planning slowly growing across Australian capital cities.

And when we finally get our politicians to understand the benefits of modern nuclear power, we'll do what the French did in the 1970's and just nationalise and standardise nuclear power and have them coming cheaply off the production line. The world needs 115 a year to clean up electricity for 10 billion by 2050. If we roll out robot-EV's and electric trams and trains, we won't need that much more electricity to generate synfuels for trucking and airlines. We can do this.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 27 May 2019, 09:59:02

These do not seem to be the 'revolutions' the article was talking about.

And generally they made the already rich much richer.

When major hydro dams go in to third world countries, they generally have the same effect. Most of the benefit goes to those already doing well. The powerful always look for ways to enhance their own power. Technology almost always just abets that process.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 27 May 2019, 10:25:43

dohboi wrote:These do not seem to be the 'revolutions' the article was talking about.

And generally they made the already rich much richer.

When major hydro dams go in to third world countries, they generally have the same effect. Most of the benefit goes to those already doing well. The powerful always look for ways to enhance their own power. Technology almost always just abets that process.


Sure as the old suothernism goes "Them as has, gets". That is how it has always been and how it always will be. It was even true in the USSR where the high party officials lived a lifestyle very much like their western European elite level colleagues.

That doesn't change the fact however that hydroelectricity means Rio de Janero has plentiful lighting and opportunity for its very large population without the damage done by building and using half a dozen coal burning power plants, which was the only serious alternative explored before the dam was built.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 27 May 2019, 20:58:44

Probably better than coal, but remember:

Hydroelectric dams emit a billion tonnes of greenhouse gases a year, study finds

https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... ate-change
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 28 May 2019, 03:20:48

dohboi wrote:These do not seem to be the 'revolutions' the article was talking about.

And generally they made the already rich much richer.


Empirically not true. The rise of technologies and energy systems has equated to global increases in wealth and decreases in extreme poverty. The rise of new cleaner energy systems will increase human health and decrease expenditure of the rich on transport.

Image

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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 28 May 2019, 09:49:11

Energy production, mechanized agriculture, general technology, and in particular digital technology, have benefitted everybody across the globe at all income levels. Life has improved for everyone and continues to do so.

The way we keep score in the game of life is money. You can place other goals above the pursuit of money, and most people do so. But some reach their elder years and resent the choices they have made, because they see other folks have more money, and thus can buy more stuff.

I don't know what the key to happiness is for most folks. My wife and I decided to accumulate money after we had paid for our kid's education. This was for fundamentally selfish reasons, to ensure we had a comfortable retirement. Such goals must be pursued for YEARS. We continued to work and save after the kid was out of the nest, in my case for another 15 years, in her case 18 years.

I have now been around peak oil for 6 years, and know most of your personalities, values, and goals. Some people still seem to be motivated by a basic desire to blame those that placed the selfish pursuit of money for the fact that they apparently have more than do you.

News flash: your fate is due to the choices you made, as is theirs. Either be happy with what you have, or continue working to acquire more. But blaming the "rich" is a pretty useless way to go through life, and one that promotes hatred of others.

One final thought: those with more money will be better at mitigating and adapting to Climate Change.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 29 May 2019, 00:58:45

Nothing to worry about: Life is improving all the time! The money supply is increasing all the time!

Crashes don't happen anymore. The climate crash has been banished by the Trump administration - we only need to go out to 2050 for our climate models now, by Presidential decree.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 29 May 2019, 03:01:28

jedrider wrote:Nothing to worry about: Life is improving all the time! The money supply is increasing all the time!

I was responding to a particular claim that is simply not factual. Responding with straw-man attacks like the following does you no credit.

Crashes don't happen anymore. The climate crash has been banished by the Trump administration - we only need to go out to 2050 for our climate models now, by Presidential decree.

I take climate change very seriously, which is why just today I was summarising the following video from a panel of experts to show the only real answer is nuclear.

FIVE POINTS AGAINST RENEWABLES:-
Marc Jacobson's famous 100% renewables plan for America calls for:-
* 5 Megawatt wind turbines standing 100 meters tall. How many? Only half a MILLION of them! Yup, 500,000 gigantic wind turbines.
* 18 BILLION square meters of Solar PV panels, with an eventual replacement and recycling volume (starting in 25 years) of about 1.23 MILLION solar panels recycled every single day, forever!
* These will be scattered into about 50,000 wind and solar farms scattered across America.
* 75 MILLION residential rooftop systems
* Will cost over $15.2 TRILLION dollars (plus backup and storage which could take it out to over $22 TRILLION) and take till 2050.

5 POINTS FOR MOLTEN SALT REACTORS:-
* But if America just built MOLTEN SALT REACTORS they would build 1515 GW of factory-built MSRs exactly where the power is needed.
* It would cost $3 TRILLION.
* But if MSR's aren't ready yet build today's AP1000's to get the job done at about $6.7 TRILLION and then in 60 years switch to the perfected breeder reactor, whether MSR or IFR.
* Molten Salt Reactors CANNOT melt down as they are already a liquid, have other passive safety features like overheating liquid fuel expanding as it heats to spread atoms out that then cannot fission, and of course being a breeder reactor the MSR 'eats' nuclear waste.
Job done. Break out the beers. 24 minute youtube by the panel of experts here: http://tinyurl.com/yxqbak8u
* In addition to the video above, I've been reading Dr James Hansen, and abandoned my hatred of nuclear power. Hansen is *the* climatologist that diagnosed our climate problem — but he says believing in 100% renewables is like believing in the Easter Bunny or Tooth Fairy. Renewables are intermittent and too unreliable to do the job. It's nuclear power or climate change. https://tinyurl.com/yclaf2sn
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 29 May 2019, 05:14:49

We tend to zero in on our particular “solution” or “blame.”

There is tons of blame to go around, very few of us escape it. But blame uses energy that could be put to more fruitful actions. It’s wha you DO that matters.

The DO side is not clear either, there is no ONE thing to do, no “silver bullet.” We need a variation of Obama’s “all the above” fossils fuel development program except that it needs to be directed at reducing warming while developing mitigation strategies and adapting.

Do we need nuclear, is it to be developed? Absolutely (and this is a change for me)
Do we need to reduce use and conserve? Absolutely, he least damaging watt is the one you don’t use.
Further renewables? Yup again.
Abandon shore line to the oceans? Yup.
Adapt lower intensity diets? Yes.
Reduce irrigation, save water resources? Uh uh.
Lower population? Absolutely!
Etc. and so forth and so on.

We don’t WWII era infrastructure projects because they tear up resources and trick us into thinking we can build our way out of this, we can’t. This crash is gonna hurt, that can’t be avoided. We can try to soften the blow. But we still don’t have that realization within the general public.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 29 May 2019, 11:36:39

I agree, we need an "all of the above" energy production strategy to produce energy to replace that which we get from vanishing FF's. I also agree that conserving and reducing energy consumption is paramount.

The infrastructure projects that had the most positive impact on this country occurred after WW1 and before WW2, and were the key to curing the Great Depression economy. Our National Park system is one such enduring legacy.
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The only part where I disagree is that building a new infrastructure is essential and a part of energy conservation. Residences, businesses, manufacturing, agriculture, distribution, transportation, and government must all be renewed. My estimate for some years has been that we can run this country with lifestyles not very different from today, using 1/6th the energy we now consume, and assuming no more than 350 million residents in the USA.

We should have started the infrastructure renewal process decades ago. The longer we wait, the more it will hurt.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 29 May 2019, 13:36:17

Limited RENEWal where it makes sense. No EXPANSION. No new roads, fix the old ones, adapt your lifestyle to fit the infrastructure.

Put solar panels over parking lots? Sure. (Come to think of it remember the craze about solar roads a couple of years ago. How’s that working out?)

Nothing is black and white but these should be guidelines by principals.
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Re: Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaption

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 29 May 2019, 22:38:54

This can be joyful, not wartime. What we need is a good Netflix series that has great writing and is a family drama, especially if it can be targeted like a sleeper cell at women and not us blogging blokes. A show like Gilmore Girls, which in itself was a bit of a New Urban promotional dream. But rather than Stars Hollow, it would be more like Stars-Hollow meets the big city. It would show how the family in question moved from an alienating, lonely, expensive car dependent way of life that is suburbia into this new "Stars Hollow" with a bunch of other climate refugees and discovered that life there was better than in suburbia. That walkability was great, going out with a granny trolley to do some shopping is awesome, that there are always friends and people to visit there. Occasionally references would be made to the unemployment troubles and Great Depression in exurban heartlands, some riots or something, but that this family are doing OK. Because people need hope. They need to see that we can both mitigate and adapt and end up better off, with more meaningful, relationship, time-rich lives than we have in today's traffic chaos and alienating, long distance deployment in the landscape. They need a show that illustrates this. (3 minutes and turn it up!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGJt_YXIoJI
With 10 times less AREA to maintain, we'll have more money to fix those bridges and roads and town squares that we do need.
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