UCI, other scientists project sharp declines in barley yields due to climate change
Irvine, Calif. -- On top of rising sea levels, stronger hurricanes and worsening wildfires, scientists project that human-caused climate change will result in one of the most dire consequences imaginable: a disruption in the global beer supply.
In a study published today in Nature Plants, researchers from the University of California, Irvine and other institutions report that concurrent droughts and heat waves, exacerbated by anthropogenic global warming, will lead to sharp declines in crop yields of barley, beer's main ingredient.
"Current levels of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 pollution - business as usual - will result in this worst-case scenario, with more weather extremes negatively impacting the world's beer basket," said co-author Nathan Mueller, UCI assistant professor of Earth system science. "Our study showed that even modest warming will lead to increases in drought and excessive heat events in barley-growing areas."
Only 17 percent of the globe's barley is used in brewing; in fact, most is harvested as feed for livestock. This sets up a conflict in the decades to come: Will producers prioritize hungry animals over thirsty humans? Inputting a decline in barley supply into their computable general equilibrium model, the researchers consistently found that the ratio of the grain going to beer brewing decreased even more. So, in a word: yes.
Prices will go up the most in such wealthy, beer-loving countries as Belgium, Canada, Denmark and Poland. For example, Davis said, during drought years, residents of Ireland could need to bring the equivalent of an extra $20 to the store to buy a six-pack.
"Our results show that in the most severe climate events, the supply of beer could decline by about 16 percent in years when droughts and heat waves strike," he said. "That's comparable to all beer consumption in the U.S. Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world."
Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat, Nature Plants (2018).
Its already started ...
Brewery: SAMUEL ADAMS UTOPIAS
Country of origin: United States
Style: American Strong Ale
ABV: 28%
Price: $150 for 750 ml
dohboi wrote:Ah, citing WUWT...very convincing...not
Newfie wrote:So far so good, what happens when the temperature continues to rise?
careinke wrote:Our wheat lands in Eastern Oregon had the best production year ever. That said, it was supposed to be planted this week, but the soil is too dry. Hopefully the rain comes soon.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Newfie wrote:Interesting comments Tanada. I’m just rereading Taste of War and was reminded that rice was not a major staple in Japan in the late 1800’s to early 1900’s. Like the tomato, which we so associate with Italian cooking, or the potatoe and English food, rice is not apparently a historic natural food of Japan.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
The grain-growing region in the High Plains of America—known as America’s breadbasket—relies entirely on the Ogallala Aquifer. But long term unsustainable use of the aquifer is forcing states in the region to face the prospect of a regional economic disaster.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 166.3 points in October, marking a rebound of 2.2 points (1.3 percent) from September and representing a 13.6 point (8.9 percent) year-on-year increase. Among the major cereals, maize quotations from the United States firmed the most, supported by strong export sales, while wheat prices also averaged higher, driven by a tighter supply outlook especially in view of deteriorating crop prospects in Australia. By contrast, rice prices fell, as harvest pressure, competition among exporters and currency movements weighed on Japonica and fragrant quotations.
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