SeaGypsy wrote:Banning things rarely if ever works. I can't think of an example of the successful banning of anything besides perhaps chlorofluorocarbons, for which viable replacements were already available, that still took decades.
I learned a long time ago that any legislation banning something or promising something more than 5 years or two election cycles down the road is nothing but talk. The Montreal accords on CFC's are an example in point, western industrial nations banned the CFC's and I am not sure how Australia reacted, but in the USA the big home A/C manufacturers moved their factories to Mexico where the ban did not go into effect for something like 15 years after it went into effect in the USA. In addition while new refrigerators and car cooling systems had to switch chemical refrigerants there was a lengthy 'Grandfather' window during which the banned CFC's were still allowed for purposes of recharging the older systems still in use in many places. Yes as of IIRC 2015 all factories world wide are supposed to be CFC free manufacturers but the Montreal Accords were signed in September 1987! Does anyone really believe we needed 28 years to switch from CFC's to less dangerous alternative chemicals?
So with all these governments jumping on the ICE ban wagon I see one of two things happening. Either Peak Oil starts to bit hard before the Ban goes into effect making it moot, or their turns out to be more available ICE fuel sources than most believe and the Ban gets repealed or amended to a further future date.