Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
dohboi wrote:Is that what we should call a surge?
ROCKMAN wrote: any methane leaks would be coming from the well head or along the pipeline transmission or local distribution systems. But at all those junctures the nature of the completion (frac'd hz shale reservoir or vertical convention sandstone reservoir) is "invisible".
ROCKMAN wrote: Not a strong (or provable) opinion but I wonder about two potential increased contributors. One, increased production from foreign NG/condensate fields where regs against venting (as opposed to flaring) either don't exist or are weakly enforced. Second increased production, transport and regassification of LNG.
ESRL NOAA wrote: The annual increase in atmospheric CH4 in a given year is the increase in its abundance (mole fraction) from January 1 in that year to January 1 of the next year, after the seasonal cycle has been removed (as shown by the black lines in the figure above). It represents the sum of all CH4 added to, and removed from, the atmosphere during the year by human activities and natural processes. Our first preliminary estimate for the annual increase of a particular year is produced during April of the following year, using available data from the previous year. It is important to recognize that the initial, April estimate of the annual increase is likely to change significantly as more data are added to the analysis. That estimate will be updated in subsequent months as more samples are measured for CH4 and included in the analysis. By autumn of the following year the annual increase will typically converge toward a “final” value.
Estimates of the globally-averaged CH4 abundance (monthly- and annually-averaged means), and the annual increase, are updated every month as new samples are returned to Boulder, measured for CH4, and added to the analysis. Adding new, more recent data improves the accuracy of the initial estimate by increasing the spatial density of data and eliminating “end effects” of the curve fitting procedures used. We’ve investigated the impacts of adding new data to the parameters reported here, and a summary of the results follows:
Initial estimates of the CH4 annual increase made in April for the previous year are biased compared to those that follow using additional data. The average bias in the initial estimate is +1±0.8 ppb yr-1 (1 standard deviation shown). Over the next few months, the average bias slowly decreases until it is negligible by July or August. In any given year though, bias in the initial estimate of the annual increase can be much larger than the average, with bias up to ±3 ppb yr-1; that is, it can be positive or negative. In other words, until late in a year, bias in the annual increase can be much larger than the uncertainty reported based on the bootstrap method described below.
Behavior of initial annually-averaged means and monthly-averaged means are similar (see links to files below). For monthly mean CH4, the initial value is typically too high, by up to 7.6 ppb.
The estimated uncertainty in the global annual CH4 increase varies by year, and it has been estimated by a “bootstrap” technique for 1984 and later. One hundred different realizations of a global network were constructed by randomly picking sites, with restitution, from the existing marine boundary layer sites in the NOAA/ESRL cooperative global air sampling network (Dlugokencky et al., 1994). Each member of the ensemble of networks has the same number of sites as the real network, but some sites are missing, while others are represented more than once. An additional condition is that at least one site is present from high southern latitudes, one from the tropics, and one from high northern latitudes, because we have always maintained broad latitude coverage in the real network. Temporal data gaps at individual sites are present in the bootstrap networks. We calculate the mean for each year's annual increase from the ensemble members, and we use one standard deviation as an estimate of the uncertainty. Uncertainties for monthly and annual means are also estimated. As mentioned earlier, bias in our first estimates of annual increase, monthly mean and annual mean can be significantly greater than the stated uncertainty.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
dohboi wrote:Nice graph. It looks to me like a pattern of steady linear increase up to about 2000, then something of a ten-year plateau, and now a return to that steady linear increase.
Is there anything else in the data or text you see as something we should especially note or watch out for?
And do you or anyone have links to articles on isotope features of the atmospheric methane that might give some clue as to how much of the new increase has to do with fracking and leaks of NG, and how much to other sources (extensions of rice ag in the tropics...)?
Abstract
Between 1999 and 2006, a plateau interrupted the otherwise continuous increase of atmospheric methane concentration [CH4] since preindustrial times. Causes could be sink variability or a temporary reduction in industrial or climate-sensitive sources. We reconstructed the global history of [CH4] and its stable carbon isotopes from ice cores, archived air, and a global network of monitoring stations. A box-model analysis suggests that diminishing thermogenic emissions, probably from the fossil-fuel industry, and/or variations in the hydroxyl CH4 sink caused the [CH4] plateau. Thermogenic emissions did not resume to cause the renewed [CH4] rise after 2006, which contradicts emission inventories. Post-2006 source increases are predominantly biogenic, outside the Arctic, and arguably more consistent with agriculture than wetlands. If so, mitigating CH4 emissions must be balanced with the need for food production.
No place on Earth is warming faster than the high Arctic, and Siberia is rapidly changing before our very eyes. Along with reports on Siberian locals having swimsuit skiing day, papers are headlining new crater formation from methane explosions.
I tell the story of these blowholes, and what they mean in terms of methane release in the Arctic and rapid global climate change.
Vast amounts of methane exists within ocean floor sediments on the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf, in the form of methane hydrates & free methane gas. Up to recently, gas release to the shallow water column (50 meters deep) & atmosphere has been slow, with the subsea permafrost acting as a million corks on a million champagne bottles to contain the methane. Now, rapid thawing of the permafrost has released 10% of the corks, allowing rapid ongoing increases in methane release.
60 gas leaks found in Medina apartment.
New Report Details Alarming Rise in Methane Gas.
Ancient Earth Wasn't Surrounded By Methane Gas.
Climate change- permafrost meltdown raises risk of catastrophic global warming.
A river on fire!- MP sets fire to methane gas on Condamine river, Australia.
Methane gas threatening to slow efforts to slow climate change.
Methane Leaks From Oil and Gas Wells Now Top Polluters.
Scientists Find 7,000 Methane 'Bubbles' Trapped Underground in Siberia.
Tons of Methane Gas Might Cost the World $60 Trillion.
Since I could find no mention of climate change anywhere in Yahoo News the past week, I will turn my attention in this rant over to a Russia Today (RT) video asking the question whether the human race even has ten years left?
Here is a link to "Sam Carana's" Arctic News blog:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Methane is between 100 and 120 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. This being said there is enough methane trapped under the permafrost in the arctic to extinguish all life on earth many times over. This is not a good situation to have on an ever warming planet where the poles are the most susceptible to changes in the environment. Russian scientists have recently discovered more than 200 lakes that are bubbling and releasing methane. Also very large holes and craters that used to have an unknown origin have also been attributed to the methane gas being released. This is a very urgent and dire situation that all of humanity needs to focus on right now or else there wont be a foreseeable future for anyone.
A U.N. employee is racing against time and fate, as he travels the world trying to stop the outbreak of a deadly Zombie pandemic.
An epidemic has wiped out most of humanity, and Ann has been forced to hide in the woods. Accustomed to isolation and a wild environment, she does not know how to react when Chris and Olivia meet in their path. For Ann, killing infected and fleeing permanently is much easier than relating to someone again.
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