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Climate Refugees Pt. 2

Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 15:24:59

Cog wrote:Not to worry guys. In the camp, you will still get Trump tweets everyday.


So will you, bunkie.

You have this queer idea of allegiance to the constitution. That will get you into trouble.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 15:39:01

Sometimes the written word doesn't convey what I think it conveys. Regarding asymmetric warfare, I was talking about domestic Islamic terrorism. Lets say some enterprising young jihadist does his thing in the USA. Suddenly his local Imam is found with his head on a stick outside of city hall or simply disappears. The message gets sent.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 15:52:26

Yes, but that also erodes our order of law and also has a negative effect on our culture. It gives them another marter.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 16:58:18

Maybe I have more bullets than they have martyrs. Lets not be rash and give up on this idea too quickly.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 17:11:44

Let's not look forward to it too hungrily.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 17:38:32

Newfie wrote:Let's not look forward to it too hungrily.

Agreed! It will be a sad day if and when we are driven to such actions.
But we can not let them over run us and impose their version of law on those that they don't choose to kill.
When it comes down to kill or be killed they are going to take it hard.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 17:42:39

Ideally it won't come to that. But I understand that it may, likely will.

Then we will deal with that reality as it presents itself. Preparation is wise investment.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 08:32:35

As Chris Hedges recently pointed out, the "North" mostly doesn't have to 'shoot' the 'South.'

Tens of millions of human beings, especially in the global south, are being herded into the climate furnaces for immolation.


But ultimately, we are all in the 'firing line.'

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/we_ ... s_20170618

Already deaths from heat have increased 7 fold since the '80s iirc.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Paulo1 » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 08:49:20

A standing joke in Canada goes a bit like this:

If Trump doesn't build a northern wall, maybe we should.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 09:09:42

Newfie wrote:Really? Then it would not be asymmetrical would it. But seriously, what is "their" equivalent of the World Trade Centers or an open society?


Newfie, as someone exposed to civil engineering, I'm surprised you don't recognize the target.

This will be evil to even mention, but I'll do it anyway. Dams and bridges. That's their equivalent of our World Trade Center. Most can be destroyed or rendered useless by a single drone payload.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 11:02:41

dohboi wrote:As Chris Hedges recently pointed out, the "North" mostly doesn't have to 'shoot' the 'South.'

Tens of millions of human beings, especially in the global south, are being herded into the climate furnaces for immolation.


But ultimately, we are all in the 'firing line.'

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/we_ ... s_20170618

Already deaths from heat have increased 7 fold since the '80s iirc.


Perhaps so in all its meaning, but world population growth continues because the death rate is still far below the birth rate.

I think it will take enough deaths to reverse population growth to get people to pay attention. Most people think I am just too cynical, but that is the way I see it.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 16:04:06

As Lily Tomlin put it: "No matter how cynical you become, it's never enough to keep up."

:) :)

But really, death rates are due to start rising soon simply from the demographics...dying baby boomers.

World population growth rates have been dropping fairly steadily since before the beginning of the millennium, and are now down to a bit over 1%. With the inevitable rise in death rates and the continued drop in birth rates (which have similarly been dropping steadily since at least 2000, from 22 to 18 births/1000), dropping the last percent of pop growth to zero seems quite likely over the next decade or so. And that without figuring in the inevitable growth in deaths from direct heat and from the conflicts that GW inspired droughts and floods will trigger.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=25&c=xx&l=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=26&c=xx&l=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=xx&l=en

And more fun graphs:

Image


Image
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 22:13:57

I don't expect dying baby boomers will have nearly the effect you seem to be anticipating.
Why is simple math. The baby boomers were all born in the 21 years from 1945-1966. World population in 1970 after every baby boomer alive today had already been born stood at 3,700,000,000 humans. Today we have 7,550,000,000 humans. Even more so than that makes it look like because the older generation that made up most of the 3,700,000,000 people were born in 1944 or before, which means those still alive are 73 or older, and as we all know the grim reaper considers those folks prime targets; few of them make it to 83 and fewer make it to 93 and very very few make it to 103.

That means virtually everyone born before the baby boomers has already passed on or has one foot on a banana peel as I type this.

So lets be very generous and say 400,000,000 of that 1970 population are still alive today. If they all died in their sleep this very night that would be less than 10% of the world population as it stands right now. In addition all of them are well past child bearing age so their deaths would not do one iota to slow the birth rate.

Sure in Europe, Australia and North America the baby boomers are a significant slice of the population. On the world stage however they are a drop in the bucket likely numbering about 5 percent or even less of the world population total.

Based on the world population clock site I prefer,
Births this year________________65,897,279
Deaths this year_______________27,240,452
Population Growth this year_____38,656,000

Combined that means we are adding about 215,000 people a day every day to world population. Until you up the world death rate by another 215,000 people every day to get it around 370,000 total daily deaths the population is going to keep growing. The average age of the world population today, counting all those baby boomers with the grim reaper looking to greet soon, stands at 29.9 years.

That is a lot more balanced than it was from 1955-1985 when it averaged around 23 years old for the total population. However as those pre-baby boomer generations have passed on and the percentage birth rate has slowed the number has gradually crept upwards over the last three decades to about 30. I can remember when the world hit the 5,000,000,000 mark in the mid 1980's and some news show did a special on how half the population of Mongolia was 16 or younger. Now THAT is a baby boom, and it was true of a lot of countries that were undergoing rapid modernization that cut infant mortality rates very deeply.

Pause and consider, that means 2,500,000,000 more people alive right now were born AFTER 1987. Stretch that point a little further and you will realize there were enough more on top of those to replace everyone who died from the 5,000,000,000 who were alive in 1987 but who are not alive today. In 2015 .0077*7,300,000,000= 56,210,000 people died in that year. Roughly the same number died in the years from 1987-2015 because the death rate per thousand declined steeply due to the youthening of the total population, and improved health care access to things like broad spectrum anti-biotics in even the poorest countries.
So rough estimate 50,000,000*30=1,500,000,000 people who were alive in 1987 died before today, which means the real number of people 30 or younger is 2,500,000,000+1,500,000,000=4,000,000,000 out of the 7,550,000,000 total now alive.

4,000/7,550=52.98% of the world population alive this instant was born within the last 30 years. Because those are the population well within the reproductive age of <40 years old you could knock off the other 47% of us tonight and in a few years they would be right back up to 7,550,000,000

In fact just for fun lets say God or Nature or some artificial plague from some teenagers genetics experiment killed everyone 41 and over tonight.
World Population 1977 was 4,100,000,000;
Crude death rate of roughly 50,000,000/year*40/years=2,000,000,000;
Increase in world population since 1977 3,450,000,000
2,000,000,000+3,450,000,000=5,450,000,000 people alive after all 41+ drop dead.

It took humanity less than 30 years to go from 5,000,000,000 to 7,550,000,000 and;
5,450/7,550=72.185% of the humans alive today are in the reproductive age bracket of <40!

No doubt there would be a brief adjustment period as new leaders are selected from those currently 40 or less, but can you honestly say the 72 percent left behind would make a bigger mess without the elder generation that did a lot to create the mess we have today? Half of them are currently parents and a few are even grandparents so they have some clue about how the world works and that life honestly just is not fair. Not only that in almost every culture they would inherit the wealth left behind by the dead so their financial situation would be modestly to greatly improved, unless they happen to work at a nursing facility for the elderly.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 07:10:59

Tanada wrote:It took humanity less than 30 years to go from 5,000,000,000 to 7,550,000,000 and;
5,450/7,550=72.185% of the humans alive today are in the reproductive age bracket of <40!



Great post Tanada. To emphasize a point you made neither war or pandemics will have any significant impact on human population as long as food and basic health care is present which would permit the human population to rebound quickly after either of these events.

Those 72% still in breeding age are mostly found in countries that are marginally self sufficient in food production or dependent on grain imports and where most citizens are spending the majority of their daily incomes on food.

It is famine that remains the most likely corrective factor to over population. I can't help but be reminded of the yeast analogy, human population expands to where the feedstock permits. Today that is the vast global over production of grains.

Major disruption to global harvests of three main grains; rice, wheat and corn probably represent the most likely factor to bringing down the human population.

If you scan the short term horizon it is probably climate change that represents the biggest threat to that feedstock. Fossil fuel depletion is not in the short term going to have any major impact on grain production.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 17:48:59

If you look back at the pictures of both Americans and Europeans after WW2 from 1946 to 1960 you can see that we were a lot thinner then. Perhaps part of the blame would lie in the great depression which was one of (In Europe) causes of the war but the war certainly made it worse. And if you look at the Russian/USSR side of it there are few pictures because millions died of starvation and were not around to have their pictures taken in 1950.
Don't discount war as a possible vehicle which will achieve major reductions in human population in the future.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:08:20

Good observation. A bit ago I read Taset of War that looked at WWII from a food perspective. What struck me was the millions of non combatants that died in nations not involved with the conflict. That was because their food supplies came from involved countries.

So yes war causes food shortages. But more to the point is that vast quantities of people rely upon foodstuffs produced outside their country and most likely shipped overseas. The USA, Canada and Argentina are major food exporters. Or as Tanada corrected me, calorie exporters.

The flip side of this is to look at which countries are either trying to take long term farming land leases or buy it outright. China, South Korea, Malaysia. Then there are those with neither food or money as in most of Africa.

So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:22:26

So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.


Or the demise of the Oil Industry
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:56:17

onlooker wrote:
So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.


Or the demise of the Oil Industry


You only have to consider the vast amount of petroleum products that are used in excess of what is needed for food production to realize that fossil duel depletion will NOT be a major factor in food shortages. Also shipping grain by marine freight is one of the most fuel efficient means of transportation.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:57:21

vtsnowedin wrote:If you look back at the pictures of both Americans and Europeans after WW2 from 1946 to 1960 you can see that we were a lot thinner then. Perhaps part of the blame would lie in the great depression which was one of (In Europe) causes of the war but the war certainly made it worse. And if you look at the Russian/USSR side of it there are few pictures because millions died of starvation and were not around to have their pictures taken in 1950.
Don't discount war as a possible vehicle which will achieve major reductions in human population in the future.


That is very true. I was thinking of combat deaths and not so much how food distribution is disrupted during times of war.
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