Revi wrote:I really don't know. I know we'll have problems on or before 2022.
AdamB wrote:something of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.
https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html
Plantagenet wrote:AdamB wrote:something of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.
https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html
Peak Demand may have occurred in your house but it is unlikely to occur globally as long as China and now India are modernizing and people are getting richer and auto use and oil use there is rapidly increasing.
Rush hour in New Delhi, India
Cheers!
AdamB wrote:Plantagenet wrote:AdamB wrote:something of even more importance to all of us....like peak demand? Peak demand has certainly arrived in my household, and I think it should arrive in everyone else's as soon as possible.
https://phys.org/news/2017-02-coal-oil-demand-peak.html
Peak Demand may have occurred in your house but it is unlikely to occur globally as long as China and now India are modernizing and people are getting richer and auto use and oil use there is rapidly increasing.
Rush hour in New Delhi, India
Cheers!
The folks thinking about peak demand down the road...include China and India in those calculations. The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others. I've seen some wonderful examples of particular technological penetration rates across time, for many countries, and the speed of that change decreased, those who started later moving faster through the S-curve to saturation point.
Arguments along those lines, backed up by those examples of decreases in time from beginning of a technology to a saturation point, carry quite a bit of weight when discussing these issues than others, say linear (or worse, non-linear) extrapolations of a given effect. To make the claims that energy economists do, you need to understand the location on that S-curve, in order to understand the inflection point. Similar to methods to estimate future population growth, S-curves being applicable to that non-linear increase as well.
especially when you consider that China"s and India's increase in demand will slam into the downside of the peakoil curve and necessity will become the mother of invention.The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others.
vtsnowedin wrote: This bit from the first paragraph makes sense,
especially when you consider that China"s and India's increase in demand will slam into the downside of the peakoil curve and necessity will become the mother of invention.[/quote]The arguments appear to be that the speed at which the current First World folks reached their peak demand and decreasing energy intensity points, will be far shorter for others.
DesuMaiden wrote:Industrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality. Just be happy that you are one of the few people (born in the 20th or 21st centuries), that can enjoy things such being able to travel to the other side of the world in less than 24 hours or instantly communicate with people on the other side of the world because these luxuries will soon be gone before the 21st century is over. Our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond will certainly not be able to enjoy virtually all of the luxuries we now have from Industrial Civilization. They will be living like people did in the Middle Ages or Neolithic era.
DesuMaiden wrote:Industrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality.
DesuMaiden wrote:Industrial civilization is a one-shot affair. There are no second-chances. Once the available nonrenewable resources necessary for it are gone, it will decay and dissapear. It is sad that our greatest scientific achievements will soon be forgotten, and our most cherished momentums will crumble into dust and dissapear, but that is just reality. Just be happy that you are one of the few people (born in the 20th or 21st centuries), that can enjoy things such being able to travel to the other side of the world in less than 24 hours or instantly communicate with people on the other side of the world because these luxuries will soon be gone before the 21st century is over. Our descendants in the 22nd century and beyond will certainly not be able to enjoy virtually all of the luxuries we now have from Industrial Civilization. They will be living like people did in the Middle Ages or Neolithic era.
Revi wrote:Here's an article that was just posted in which the olduvai graphic was used.
http://peakoil.com/consumption/collapse-has-arrived
I think we are going to see the outliers experience it first, followed sooner or later by us.
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