Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
SeaGypsy wrote: Hence so much rhetoric about 'sustainable growth'- pixie dust, but the mantra allows the profit motive to continue.
onlooker wrote:That recalls Montequest, so persistent and consistent in his mantra of overshoot based on ecological principles in turn based on the laws of physics, biology and chemistry. Why did not humanity listen to the scientists and science from which all of this may have been avoided. After all, is not ultimately Science their to teach us and give us some wisdom in managing our affairs.
ennui2 wrote:So I don't think it's fair to say the public is totally clueless when it comes to limits-to-growth.
MonteQuest wrote:
And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?
Lore wrote:MonteQuest wrote:
And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?
I agree, they won't see it it coming and ignore it till it hits them. We still have fairly intelligent people on here that are aware, but are still whistling past the graveyard.
MonteQuest wrote:In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.
Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.
What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.
AdamB wrote:But I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.
AdamB wrote: And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.
Pops wrote:AdamB wrote:But I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.
You are mistaking a blip with a trend.
At most there is 150B bbls of tight oil.
The world consumes 35B bbls year.
MonteQuest wrote:AdamB wrote: And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.
Post peak? Maybe with regard to conventional oil, but not all liquids. We still import 8 mbpd--so much for US independence. Did we anticipate that interest rates would go to zero and facilitate massive investment in fracking? No. Did we anticipate that OPEC would continue to fuel the glut to meet budget outlays? No. Did we anticipate oil consumption in the US would drop from a 25 mbpd projection to 19 mbpd while production increased. No.
MonteQuest wrote:It isn't "amazing" that no one figured on such a scenario. We didn't know how the monkeys would react. It was scenario that was hard to foresee, but all these factors have just provided a short hiatus from the pandemic to come. Will we find more ways to kick the can down the road? Perhaps. But the piper will be paid. Just now, the payment will be much higher.
What you are saying is that we haven't learned anything from all this volatility. Cornucopians have won.
Good luck with that mindset.
AdamB wrote:Well..I guess that it is fortunate that organizations like the EIA and IEA didn't fall for only decline, all decline, all the time then? Not sure I'm thrilled with the idea that economists know better how resource development plays out, but they do have the resources and expertise to have known some of those things were about to happen I guess.
MonteQuest wrote:In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.
Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.
What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
ennui2 wrote: Yes, I remember the most popular graphics were those charts that had a big wedge for unconventional taking up the slack and everyone swearing up and down that unconventional flow rates and ROI would not be able to pull it off. Well, so far it has.
Tanada wrote: More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?
MonteQuest wrote:Tanada wrote: More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?
Today, the stock market opened with the biggest drop since 1932. Debt defaults look like the most likely culprit to be the first domino. Can't use low interest rates to check it. Print more money? Blow the bubble bigger?
Subjectivist wrote:MonteQuest wrote:Tanada wrote: More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?
Today, the stock market opened with the biggest drop since 1932. Debt defaults look like the most likely culprit to be the first domino. Can't use low interest rates to check it. Print more money? Blow the bubble bigger?
To inflate by printing more money they would have to give the new money directly to J6P who would spend it stimulating the economy. Since 2008 they have printed a lot, but always given it to the upper level who sits on it instead of spending.
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