Obama Keystone Veto Seen Helping Trudeau Reset U.S. Alliance
A prompt rejection of TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline would make the job easier for Canada’s incoming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as he seeks to reset the country’s relationship with the U.S., which he says was damaged by outgoing leader Stephen Harper.
Trudeau, whose Liberal Party Monday night defeated Harper’s Conservatives with a surprise majority in Parliament, could use a quick U.S. denial of Keystone to focus discussions with U.S. President Barack Obama on issues such as trade and climate. There’s been speculation among Keystone watchers including Republican North Dakota Senator John Hoeven, a supporter of the $8-billion project, that Obama would reject the pipeline shortly after the Canadian election.
“If it’s going to be rejected, which I think most people think it is, the sooner the better so it can be attributed to Harper,” said James Coleman, assistant professor at the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business.
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‘Soft Support’
In contrast, Trudeau has signaled “a soft support for the oil industry and oil pipelines, but that support is very different from the support we’ve seen from the Canadian government over the past 10 years,” said Adam Scott, Climate and Energy Program Manager with Environmental Defence Canada. “It’s likely that Trudeau will take ‘No’ for an answer on Keystone.”
The Canadian oil industry has been lobbying for approval of new pipelines for the past five years as crude production surges after more than C$100 billion ($77 billion) in investment in oil-sands mines and steam operations in northern Alberta.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/obama-keystone-veto-would-help-trudeau-reset-alliance-with-u-s-
So if I understand the above correctly, Canada's new Liberal Party PM from Quebec won't come out and SAY he's against the pipeline.. but if Obama will veto it, then Trudeau won't fight it and "will take no for an answer." And then blame the pipeline veto on Stephen Harper, saying that Harper damaged relations with the US and that caused the pipeline veto.
Otherwise, Trudeau "softly supports" Canada's oil industry and isn't really clear about the pipeline and other oil issues.
So.. we're all talking about putting Exxon on trial, but what about actual heads of state that can't even come out and say they're against the tar sands and pipeline? And nobody really knows, maybe he would in fact fight Obama on it if O denies the pipeline, people are just assuming Trudeau will be "okay with" a veto.
Under Harper, the Canadians were saying they're going to keep doing the tar sands no matter what, and will just sell it to China out of Vancouver, if we won't approve the pipeline. Under Harper, Canada pressured quite a bit to get this pipeline approved.
Lastly, it's not 100% certain that Obama will veto the pipeline. He could wind up approving it. All that's known is that the Obama admin "plans to decide at the end" of its term in office, like literally on the way out the door, he's gonna let everyone know:
White House says Obama to rule on Keystone pipeline before leaving office
"Our expectation at this point is that the president will make a decision before the end of his administration on the Keystone pipeline, but when exactly that will be, I don't know at this point," White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters traveling on Air Force One.
Asked whether the decision could come this year, Earnest said: "It's possible - it's also possible it could happen next year."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/02/us-usa-keystone-whitehouse-idUSKCN0SR22N20151102
I guess Exxon is evolving, and Obama admin is still thinking and evolving and it could go either way, and Hillary Clinton just recently evolved:
Clinton: I never took a position on Keystone until I took a position on Keystone
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/256866-clinton-defends-slow-opposition-to-keystone-pipeline