by KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Jun 2014, 18:33:55
First of all, I think the EPA lacks the authority to mandate a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Yes I am aware of the Supreme Court ruling, but this topic was addressed and rejected by Congress, who denied the EPA the power to mandate carbon dioxide levels. I fear that (whatever your opinion of this EPA regulation) that the process of imposing it has damaged our process of government.
Now having said that, if we reduce our power plant emissions further from the existing 23% reduction all the way to 30%, it is my understanding that this change alone might have as much as 0.01 F degree cooling effect on the planet. That figure is arrived at by apportioning the reduced carbon dioxide against the worldwide total of man-made emissions, and by assuming that a GHG climate model that I actually disbelieve in is correct.
I also have to point out that the potential 0.01 F degree temperature reduction assumes that the coal remains in the ground un-burned. If instead of burning said coal in (relatively clean) US power plants, we export it to other countries where it gets burned in their (relatively dirty) power plants, then this action will result in something more than 0.01 F degree of warming. I mention this possibility because that is the actual track record of US environmental legislation, when we shut down an industry in the US that is not clean enough for our tastes, the jobs and the industry itself are exported along with the pollution, and net harm is done to the planet and to the US economy. NOT ONCE has any example set by American environmental legislation translated into cleaner industry in the country that produces the same goods to export to us. (If you can find an example, let me know, I can't find any, and admit that does not prove that such examples do not exist.)
Estimates about the eventual impact to the cost of electricity at the retail level range widely but seem to center somewhere around +30%. This is calculated by assuming that the least costly power generation (coal) is replaced by more costly renewable energy sources such as solar PV and wind.
You can also assume price increases for all US goods and services that depend upon electricity for manufacturing or delivery. For example you might use an extra $0.50 worth of electricity getting an MRI test, which is a minor impact that probably won't change the consumer price. However, most of the cost in making aluminum from ore is electricity, and virgin aluminum is likely to increase in cost by 25% or more. Food processing and packaging depend heavily on electricity and might cause the price of groceries to do a +10%. These are estimates based on casual readings on the web, feel free to dispute them. My bottom line is that this will have a negative impact on our lives that we will feel as reduced disposable income for those of us still working, and an increase in poverty and misery for those on fixed incomes or entitlements.
I am not a fan of coal burning, and I never have been. The estimates that I believe say that coal power kills 13,000 Americans annually, and up to 3 million worldwide. I figure this change, by forcing the retirement of the dirtiest US power plants, may save as many as 3,000 lives annually in the USA. However if we export the coal and it is burned elsewhere, there will be a net increase in lives lost.
The last impact of this regulation that comes to mind is that coal burning is Big Business in the USA. The numbers of jobs lost in coal mining, railroad transport of coal, and in existing coal power plants, less a modest increase in employment in the solar PV and wind power fields to replace the lost power, amount to an estimated -250,000 jobs, mostly taken from union member Democrats. There will be some political backlash against the Democratic party, and whether or not the political benefits of this action outweigh that serious cost, I could not begin to guess.
Overall, my assessment is that this is a mixed bag of both benefits and pain. But the matter of 3000 American lives saved every year causes me to give this proposal the benefit of any doubt.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001
Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.
Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0