by Pops » Mon 16 Jan 2012, 10:09:05
So what makes you think it hasn't already run out? Wasn't the release from the SPR last summer pretty good evidence?
I think it was seahorse who said the SPR is the new swing producer.
I believe prices are limited now not by "what the market will bear" but what the economy can survive. Even at that, the price is supported by enough new demand that it will prune inefficient use by us in the "old demand" world. Figure one mile driven in non-OECD equals one less in the OECD.
Did you see that the portion of US GDP representing actual earned income is the lowest ever? Only 44% of GDP is from actual wage and salary income. Consumer debt jumped 11% in November because you can buy a car on credit but aside from cars spending was down in december.
I guessed on a small range of oil price movement this year. Pardon the clumsy metaphor, but economically we're at stall speed with an open throttle, we'll continue to trade "altitude for speed" in the form of falling consumption and good jobs but you can't glide forever.
Anyway, that's my gloomy outlook this morning.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)