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Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 12:27:44

Homesteader wrote:
OilFinder2 wrote:In 2009 the prime rate was not at 20.5%.


In 1982 the economy could withstand the prime rate being at 20.5%.

What would happen to todays economy if the FED announced a target rate of 20.5% in 12-18 months?


For those with fixed rate financing?

Its YEE HAH TIME BABY!!!!! Up go wages and PRESTO!! Devaluation of the debt, pay it off quicker, I'd call it a win win for people who didn't buy into the speculative nature of income and finance over the past half decade or more.

Of course, if you are in an industry where they choose not to pay you any sort of regular wage increases, your standard of living will in general drop along with the increases in rates, minus the bonus of how smart you were with fixed rate financing. But dropping standards of living in America has been going on for like 2 decades now, so ramping up interest rates would just accelerate the process, but its certainly nothing new to anyone who has watched the propagation of America from a single wage earner family to a two earner family to maintain appearances.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 12:36:08

mcgowanjm wrote:And here SoS is right, except on this:
I've been watching the credit available to the average consumer ( defining myself as an average consumer ) over the past 18 months now


while I've been watching credit extended in lieu of wage increases since
1982.


Speak for yourself. I've experienced wage explosions since 1982...and I've done it twice when I changed careers. Now...someone basically living their lives with skills related to minimum wage jobs, THATS a different question.

mcgowanjm wrote:Everything has been monetized out to forever. And like SoS said:
Its about time people got a decent smack in the face for being ignorant enough to think that market cycles only go up, or that real estate investing is a surefire hit.


Except that the 'people' who should be getting this smack are instead getting
bailed out:


Some certainly got bailed out...including those buying new cars in August on the government largess. Fortunately, even the big banks who got bailed out can't sustain pyramid schemes forever, so I'm sure we'll be back through this all over again sometime.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 13:34:03

Speak for yourself. I've experienced wage explosions since 1982...and I've done it twice when I changed careers. Now...someone basically living their lives with skills related to minimum wage jobs, THATS a different question.


Your wage "explosion" has to be at least 3 times what you were
making in '82. Congrats if you've kept up. 95% haven't and weren't supposed to per plan.

Everything has been monetized out to forever.

Some certainly got bailed out...including those buying new cars in August on the government largess. Fortunately, even the big banks who got bailed out can't sustain pyramid schemes forever, so I'm sure we'll be back through this all over again sometime.


You're conflating the top quintile
with the Bottom 4/5's.

America only works with the Bottom 4/5's thinking they have a chance to break out of their poverty.

And no one buying a new car got 'bailed out'. The US spent
$40 000 per car to indebt those car buyers further. They did
hurt the used car market though.

And same with housing. Who benefits with holding house prices
up artificially?
The Banks, and the Banks are insolvent. And we're not going
'back through this' 'cause we never left it. The US has now gone thru it's wealth as opposed to '82.

And another 1982 fact:
Soy Stocks to Use-9.39 MMT
2009-3.81 MMT
Wheat production in the US fell 11% from 2008
and we're trying to turn 30% of a failed corn crop into gasoline.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 14:34:13

shortonsense wrote:I don't know Airline, if someone buys into the "gee haven't Americans been stupid with their credit fueled spree" over the past decade, I'm not sure I assign any connotation to your lack of credit expansion other than YEE HAH!!

Seriously, we had an asset bubble. A good one. Its been punctured, and I have a tough time buying into the concept that this is a BAD thing, and then trying to use this assumption to claim it makes the current recession ( or not ) worse than the one in 1982. Its about time people got a decent smack in the face for being ignorant enough to think that market cycles only go up, or that real estate investing is a surefire hit..


For once Im in complete agreement with you. I personally have lived within my means, saved some, invested a bit and am doing ok and have no debt other than my house in which I have over 85% equity now.

Why its bad is because TPTB are screwing up the process. We need to reset bad bank debt, worthless assets, and get the mess out of the system. That is NOT being allowed to happen so consumer credit collapsing spells further economic woe IMHO. Thats what I mean by bad. Im fully on board with living within ones means, but we are the minority in the greater US economy.

That my friend is bad and spells further trouble in an economy that is 70% consumer based. They are going to be almost completely cut off from that crack habit, either by choice (few Im sure) or by force.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 14:42:13

mcgowanjm wrote:
Speak for yourself. I've experienced wage explosions since 1982...and I've done it twice when I changed careers. Now...someone basically living their lives with skills related to minimum wage jobs, THATS a different question.


Your wage "explosion" has to be at least 3 times what you were
making in '82. Congrats if you've kept up. 95% haven't and weren't supposed to per plan.


Much more than 3X, most certainly. However, this plan meant to make sure that others didn't take advantage of their skills, could you provide a reference please? I've never seen, felt the influence of ( that I can tell ) or heard of a plan which required me to not take advantage of the opportunities provided in America. You wouldn't be confusing "plan" with "Americans acting like financial idiots" in the same vein as those who proclaim that predatory mortgage lending was the cause of the housing crisis rather than idiots not reading their paperwork now would you?

mcgowanjm wrote:America only works with the Bottom 4/5's thinking they have a chance to break out of their poverty.


Chance? But of course there is a chance, those of us who have actually done it can even explain how. Certainly it wasn't easy, but anything worth doing well rarely is.

mcgowanjm wrote:And no one buying a new car got 'bailed out'. The US spent
$40 000 per car to indebt those car buyers further. They did
hurt the used car market though.

And same with housing. Who benefits with holding house prices
up artificially?
The Banks, and the Banks are insolvent. And we're not going
'back through this' 'cause we never left it. The US has now gone thru it's wealth as opposed to '82.


They didn't hurt MY used car market, I traded off a car last month for $3500 more than I was offered in May because of depleted used car inventory. So I profited on the backside of clunkers.And last I looked, housing prices were coming down, and have been for awhile. If there is a grand plan to keep prices up, don't you think we should SEE it sometime? Its like in the old days when people were proclaiming the effectiveness of the "Plunge Protection Team"...until of course it became obvious that the plunging was happening just fine, then everyone stopped pretending this group meant anything in the greater scheme of things.

mcgowanjm wrote:And another 1982 fact:
Soy Stocks to Use-9.39 MMT
2009-3.81 MMT
Wheat production in the US fell 11% from 2008
and we're trying to turn 30% of a failed corn crop into gasoline.


And this matters how? Peak oil was 4 years ago now, Simmons and Deffeyes, two of the Peak Prophets of yore, have said so. So this deep into the post peak world, some people want to make ethanol rather than eat the corn...okay...let them, if they can make a little coin doing it, its okay by me. Certainly its not showing up as corn shortages at the local markets.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 14:54:26

AirlinePilot wrote:
shortonsense wrote:I don't know Airline, if someone buys into the "gee haven't Americans been stupid with their credit fueled spree" over the past decade, I'm not sure I assign any connotation to your lack of credit expansion other than YEE HAH!!



For once Im in complete agreement with you. I personally have lived within my means, saved some, invested a bit and am doing ok and have no debt other than my house in which I have over 85% equity now.

Why its bad is because TPTB are screwing up the process.


Ask a Libertarian how long TPTB have been screwing up the process, and I'm pretty sure they will claim much longer than just during this most current recession. So they are STILL screwing with the process...and as with all things related to the government, we can either change it, or roll with the consequences when they arrive. You think I liked it when the social security retirement age got changed to 67 rather than 62? Certainly thats an 80's example of TPTB screwing with the system, let alone putting Treasury notes in and borrowing from the SSI taxes I've been paying for more than a few decades now. While the irritation with recent events is more in your face than the older stuff, its hardly new.

AirlinePilot wrote:
We need to reset bad bank debt, worthless assets, and get the mess out of the system. That is NOT being allowed to happen so consumer credit collapsing spells further economic woe IMHO. Thats what I mean by bad. Im fully on board with living within ones means, but we are the minority in the greater US economy.


Then Darwin is still right, and you and I will be better off for being frugal types. It'll hurt you and I ( the consequences for collective bad behavior ), somewhere, sometime, but it will certainly hurt others worse. A bummer to be sure, but I certainly stopped feeling guilty some time ago about the results of reasonable academic, financial, or career decisions.

AirlinePilot wrote: That my friend is bad and spells further trouble in an economy that is 70% consumer based. They are going to be almost completely cut off from that crack habit, either by choice (few Im sure) or by force.


So it spells trouble....so did the interest rates in 1982. But having prepared for this one, having seen the other one up close and personal, I have to say, I am so much better prepared this time that I haven't even noticed this one much, beyond the small changes I've observed in consumer credit. Forewarned is forearmed I always say.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 15:24:20

And to reply to an intelligent post. Thank you, SoS.

Always a pleasure.

But first, another 1982 comparison and the most important:

1982 human pop 4.6 Billion
2009 human pop 6.8 Billion

A mirror of oil production.

But a not very useful one because as the pop stabilizes we will
be talking about other things.

Now second,
Much more than 3X, most certainly. However, this plan meant to make sure that others didn't take advantage of their skills, could you provide a reference please?


the Plan is 1913 to move wealth from the Productive to
the Financial (always done via stripping agriculture but now
with a twist to capture the value of the $ before devaluation).
By the time the Bottom 95% get hold of it, the values been
stripped. See 0% short term to 3.5% Ten year.

The plan has been to offshore the production as well as the waste
while making a social contract with Euro/US Labor.
Wallerstein:
The 1980's can be summed up in a few code words. The first was the "debt crisis," which brought down not only most of Latin America (not to speak of Africa) but also east/central Europe. The debt crisis revealed the degree to which the economic realities of east/central Europe were not essentially different from those of the Third World. The second was the "flying geese" of East Asia - Japan's amazing economic romp through the world-economy, followed by and dragging along first the four dragons (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore), and eventually southeast Asia and mainland China as well. The third was the "military Keynesianism" of the Reagan administration which overcame U.S. recession and high unemployment by enormous government borrowing, in particular from Japan, on the excuse of the reinforcement of military structures, and whose single biggest consequence was the creation of an incredible U.S. national debt. The fourth was the flourishing on the U.S. stock exchange of "junk bonds," which essentially meant enormous borrowing on the part of large corporations in order to make short-run speculative profits at the expense of productive machinery, and causing in turn so-called "downsizing," which meant forcing middle-income strata into lower-paying jobs in the economy.


Third:
You wouldn't be confusing "plan" with "Americans acting like financial idiots" in the same vein as those who proclaim that predatory mortgage lending was the cause of the housing crisis rather than idiots not reading their paperwork now would you?


No. That would be Glass Steagal repealed so that the sky's the
limit on leveraged deals. Only the top quintile could play leveraged games...until 2001, when the home was turned into
an ATM. And then as the Game ran out, more and more
of the less and less (No Doc, No Stated Income, OptARM, AltA's
State AG regulation thwarted by Justice) were brought into the scam. Until...

PeakOil 2005, Arkansas Lumber Mills shut down statewide.
Everyone who could be brought into the Game, everything
that could be monitized happened.

And so now.
Chance? But of course there is a chance, those of us who have actually done it can even explain how. Certainly it wasn't easy, but anything worth doing well rarely is.


You had an education. A family. Your family helped you.
You didn't have to start work until you graduated from
college. That ain't anywhere near the bottom. It takes
generations to move to your level.

To Summarize, the Top 1% have been living off Oil making the Human Pop Explosion while capturing the Wealth of a Dollar
turned into 5 cents.
Now the HyperInflation hidden in $1.4+QuadrillionDerivativesDebt is unwinding(disintegrating)
into a grinding deflation (why the US can't stop house price declines even with pumping $24 Trillion into the system[zero
velocity as banks attempt to repair their balance sheet]).
The Last Depression will now gain momentum into collapse
of civilization by 2025.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 15:52:29

mcgowanjm wrote:Now second,
Much more than 3X, most certainly. However, this plan meant to make sure that others didn't take advantage of their skills, could you provide a reference please?

The plan has been to offshore the production as well as the waste
while making a social contract with Euro/US Labor.
Wallerstein:


Well, I read it all, but I certainly don't understand what appear to be quite a bit of random events, interpretations, and some other stuff I'm not even sure how to characterize.

If the US wants to offshore production, they've done a bad job because we're still the largest manufacturer on the planet. If this plan has been in effect since 1913, don't you think it should show up as us NOT being the largest manufacturer on the planet by now?

mcgowanjm wrote:Third:
You wouldn't be confusing "plan" with "Americans acting like financial idiots" in the same vein as those who proclaim that predatory mortgage lending was the cause of the housing crisis rather than idiots not reading their paperwork now would you?


No. That would be Glass Steagal repealed so that the sky's the
limit on leveraged deals. Only the top quintile could play leveraged games...until 2001, when the home was turned into
an ATM. And then as the Game ran out, more and more
of the less and less (No Doc, No Stated Income, OptARM, AltA's
State AG regulation thwarted by Justice) were brought into the scam. Until...


A plan doesn't usually rely on a group of people acting stupid in a concerted manner, thats usually referred to as "stupid people acting to form". A plan would mean that someone made them treat their home like an ATM. Otherwise, last I looked, the signing of any mortgage document in America requires someone to sign and accept the document, and if its a stupid deal, the appropriate response is NOT to sign. Clean and simple.

mcgowanjm wrote:PeakOil 2005, Arkansas Lumber Mills shut down statewide.
Everyone who could be brought into the Game, everything
that could be monitized happened.


Yeah, I remember you referencing this one before. So what? Peak oil was apparently so horrifying that those who even consider the concept are still considered semi-nutty, the effects being so invisible to the average consumer who still pumps gas into their car, the farmer who uses diesel, or the airplanes that AirlinePilot flies.

And I don't know what exactly you are referring to in reference to the American economy about being "monitized" (sic), is this a reference to borrowing money in your mind, or borrowing at a particular level ( consumer/government ) or just some reference to a fiat system in general?

mcgowanjm wrote:And so now.
But of course there is a chance, those of us who have actually done it can even explain how. Certainly it wasn't easy, but anything worth doing well rarely is.


You had an education. A family. Your family helped you.
You didn't have to start work until you graduated from
college. That ain't anywhere near the bottom. It takes
generations to move to your level.


I would swear in an exclamatory way, but the mods would delete it. Let me try this: Bullsh!t.

I was kicked out of the house upon high school graduation at 18. I worked full-time summers while in college, and nearly full-time at 2 jobs during the school year. I was homeless during the first half of my senior year in college. My mom never gave me a dime towards college when I collected my first degree. The others were subsequently easier, in part because once I entered the workforce I certainly did not suddenly decide to kick back and take it easy.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sun 15 Nov 2009, 22:37:03

mcgowanjm wrote:

You had an education. A family. Your family helped you.
You didn't have to start work until you graduated from
college. That ain't anywhere near the bottom. It takes
generations to move to your level.


LOL!

In 1982 I was taking the bus back and forth to college (pre-med). My mom did "let" me live with her, but I was paying part of the rent and most of the food for six people (my four sisters were younger). And yes, I was working a workstudy job and two outside part time jobs too. I was eating on a dollar a day away from home, and let me tell you, that's a challenge. :)

But hey, us X'ers are all considered no good bums, don't let me bust your bubble.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby Blacksmith » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 04:17:21

I lived through the 1980's recession. I lost my job, my marriage and my dignity. It took me almost 5 years before I could face my demons.

I lowered my expectation, took a series of lower paying jobs and eventually came out of it.

Now I am debt and mortgage free, work on a contract basis, have saving in excess of 1 million dollars and could tackle just about anything life can throw at me including death.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 10:16:46

shortonsense wrote:If the US wants to offshore production, they've done a bad job because we're still the largest manufacturer on the planet.

Well, I read it all, but I certainly don't understand ...


You can source the first, and I'll help you with the second.

And after your family/ed rebuttal, I stand by my statement.

James 8)
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 10:20:09

Blacksmith wrote:Now I am debt and mortgage free, work on a contract basis, have saving in excess of 1 million dollars and could tackle just about anything life can throw at me including death.


There you go. I learned the same lesson, and so far have been zipping through this recession without missing a beat. I think all the amazement is age related, the younglings have just never experienced one of these things before, and are really scared of it. No more credit card offers in the mail, facing a decline in income or a layoff while owing money, that career in selling real estate suddenly not all so glamorous, or skipping college to become a drywaller, all the entitlement/financial doodads that went along with our recent era of cheap and easy credit.

Whereas those of us who have been through one know EXACTLY what it means, and if we had two brain cells to rub together back then, we certainly haven't forgotten.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 10:45:22

Whereas those of us who have been through one know EXACTLY what it means, and if we had two brain cells to rub together back then, we certainly haven't forgotten.


The cognitive dissonance seems to be be in your thinking this is a 1982 recession instead of a 1873 depression:
The Long Depression was a worldwide economic crisis experienced in the .... "Political and Social Consequences of the Great Depression of 1873-1896 in ...
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 11:48:35

In 1982 I had more work than I could handle (oil and gas and petro-chemical business). I could literally work anywhere in the country.
Today my industry is contracting like crazy, laying off everyone they can do without, and in general, looking like it is going down the tubes.

Yes, today is different.

By the way, this is an excellent thread.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby some_math_guy » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 16:18:55

For my wife and I, this 'recession' has been the best thing to happen to us yet. We're young working professionals with a combined 18+ years of post-secondary education between us, all financed by a staggering amount of student loan debt. My parents are blue-collar workers and my wife's parents unfortunately decided to carry their excesses of the 80's right up to the present day, so we could not count on any financial help from either of them. We also have a child.

This recession has resulted in
1) The lowest prime borrowing rates I've seen in my life, resulting in us being on track to pay off our student loans more than 3 years early.
2) The lowest mortage rates I've ever seen, resulting in us tripling the amount of principal being paid off of our house annually from five years ago. Our amortization period has now been reduced from 25 to 13 years, just like that. Our mortgage rate is a rock-bottom 1.65%.
3) Bargain prices for used goods as strapped consumers liquidate. (This is how we buy most of the durable goods that we need).
4) Slashed prices for consumer retail goods
5) Lowest fuel, heating oil, and food prices in 24 months
6) An assortment of tax breaks, home renovation rebates and tax incentives, etc designed to 'stimulate' the economy.

In short, I sincerely hope this broad-based cross-sectoral recession continues for at least 5 more years, as at a minimum it will allow those people who are fortunate enough to keep their jobs to get out from under the massive debt they have accumulated from years of easy credit. Runaway inflation will also help to wipe out these crippling obligations. Ultimately, hopefully it will also wake people up to the reality that 'infinite' economic growth will be winding down within the next few years, and help them adjust their expectations of the future in line with reality.

I think the best go-forward investment strategy is to buy reasonably-priced residential housing units (which excludes almost the entire United States) to rent - they are inflation-proof (you can raise rents), you can take any equity out tax-free (as long as you just refinance, not sell), and you are not locked into the going-nowhere stock market. The future of reduced energy production will mean no net growth and eventually broad, perpetual declines in the stock market, which is how the retirement dreams of almost everybody are supposed to be funded including all pension plans and 401k. A small portfolio of precious metals, with some income-producing rental units in the right location, should provide income no matter what happens in the broad economy going forward.

Anyone pursuing this strategy?
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 17:39:22

:cry: Lets see ? Where was I in 82?? Oh yah ,married with children. 8O I remember the banker telling us we could borrow all we wanted at 15%. OK you go first. Go in debt and let inflation eat away at the principal?? Works great if your salary keeps up with inflation. Working for a state government bureaucracy with the SEIU negotiating the pay raises I never once got a raise that kept up with inflation and that includes promotions. The best they ever did was a two year contract with 9% each year but the states finances went in the tank and they reneged on the second year. That was the years with fifteen percent inflation. Do the math.
Comparing a few successful individuals experiences to a recession tells you nothing about what the vast majority of Joe six packs go through then or now. They truly live lives of quite desperation and this time they may not be able to stay quite about it and survive. This time is different. The government is spending money like there is no tomorrow and way above our ability to pay back through taxes even if interest rates stay stupidly low for decades. This bill will come due and having little or no personal debt will not help. They will just say that you debt free wizards get to pay a larger share of the bill. That's only fair ISN'T IT.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 17:54:05

I think its kind of funny how we are all arguing about what is worse 1982 or 2009 for economy... There is no doubt that 1982 had much worse inflation, and that inflation at double-digit level eats away income but keep in mind that having low inflation now in 2009 will have a price to be paid in the future... we're just delaying the inevitable (inevitable now, due to the massive gov debt and money printing that will result in lieu of default).
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 20:38:30

some_math_guy wrote:Anyone pursuing this strategy?


Bet your bottom. The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. Good times are simply the time to collect the liquidity necessary to collect stuff selling at 20 cents on the dollar when the unprepared are hung out to dry.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 16 Nov 2009, 21:42:12

some_math_guy wrote:This recession has resulted in
1) The lowest prime borrowing rates I've seen in my life
2) The lowest mortage rates I've ever seen
5) Lowest fuel, heating oil, and food prices in 24 months
6) An assortment of tax breaks, home renovation rebates and tax incentives, etc designed to 'stimulate' the economy.


Stand by my friend, I hate to say it but none of those will be with us in fairly short order. Just today the dollar has taken another bath on Bernanke's stupid premise of holding interest rates far too low. The dollar carry IS going to unwind, when it does STFB. All those things above will go away.Take advantage while you can, but a prudent man might also be preparing for far worse things if the Govt/Fed cant get complete control of the Debt, the strength of the dollar, and figuring out how to bring jobs and manufacturing back to this country.

Right now I'm starting to think they jumped too far into the deep end and wont be able to get out.
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Re: Now vs 1982, looking for comparison

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 30 Nov 2009, 13:16:12

Easy : 1982 is before peak oil. 2009 is post peak oil.

Oh, I almost forgot something else.
In 1982, we could still think about a better future.
In 2009, every day passing will be worse than the precedent.
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