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Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 17:50:43

onlooker wrote:Just as a matter of curiosity do you believe Kaiser that you or your descendants will be some of those leaving the planet?


Certainly not me. But understand that I am not a believer in AGW/CC. The doom that is approaching is the classic problem that PO.com exists to address - the exhaustion of fossil fuels.

This will absolutely render the discussion of AGW/CC totally moot, we are gonna run out of FF's while our population is still increasing, and the lack of fossil fuels kills more people that have ever existed before. A typical urban scene after the cheap oil runs out:
Image
The thing is, we have gas after oil production starts to decline, and coal after the gas declines, and the coal will last at least another century.
Image

The point being - that as long as we can avoid that nuclear resource war, and as long as you live in a place - like the USA - that is a net food exporter, the middle classes will survive, at least half the country's population. They will no longer be middle class - it'll be similar to the Great Depression, but with the Internet as a media for complaints, much as it is today.

Note that knowledge is never lost, and societies never decay into barbarism. It won't happen this time, either - life will be hard, and you might have to settle for a smaller HDTV size than you want, and less sugar and less meat and more vegetables than you prefer - not a bad thing for most of us. You also will be walking and bicycling more than today - and unless wealthy, won't own a car.

As for my only kid, she is 37 years old, my grandkids just turned 6 months. If I develop a favorable impression of their intelligence, I would encourage them to seek a career in space. But if they turn out to be of average intelligence or below, IMHO they should stay on Earth. The human race is going to cull itself of low intelligence rather quickly when it occupies space habitats - and the stupid will die rapidly.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby careinke » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 18:23:29

ROCKMAN wrote: Correct me if I'm missing something but when has the majority of any population agreed to significantly reduce their lifestyles for the benefit of future (and specifically unborn) generations?


The closest one I can think of is the US during WWII. As a matter of fact, with a few minor variations, it would be a good model for today.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Paulo1 » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 19:42:40

Thanks Ghung, will do.

Guess what, our power just came back on!!! We had good lights last night and read until 9:00 pm. It was one helluva storm. I am ecstatic with my led lights. My electrican son is getting me fixed up with everything else.

When we lost power it took me about 2 minutes to switch over. We cooked on the woodstove and had an awesome meal. We listened to satelite radio, read, and played cards. No complaints, except I got the house too hot and had to open the windows for awhile. We just got the modem online about 30 minutes ago. No phones, no tv, nothing but howling wind and rain pelting against the windows. The new windows and r-60 in the attic proved their worth once again. :-D
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby careinke » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 20:36:40

Paulo1, we had the same windstorm in the lower Puget Sound. Our power stayed on.

I guess we now know what the immediate effect of this Super El-Nino is for the Pacific Northwest. Lot's of rain and warmer weather from the Pineapple Express.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 23:21:35

careinke wrote:Paulo1, we had the same windstorm in the lower Puget Sound. Our power stayed on.

I guess we now know what the immediate effect of this Super El-Nino is for the Pacific Northwest. Lot's of rain and warmer weather from the Pineapple Express.


I've been getting plenty of rain (in the eastern part of Washington), but at least it erased that damned white stuff that was covering the ground everywhere. Haven't been getting much snow the past 4 or 5 years, and I like that.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Apneaman » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 23:23:03

Very few kids born recently are going to see 30. Maybe none. Folks can stick their heads up their ass all they want, but it does not change the reality. It's quite obvious to anyone who is not blinded by their beliefs and inherent ape biases (less than 1% ?) that humanity is an evolutionary dead end. The pin on the extinction grenade was pulled and thrown away decades ago. Listening to some of the magical thinking, cargo cult reports out of COP21 is very surreal. We are quickly approaching a point where all the apes are united in their denial. A denial singularity.


<b>An Introduction to “The Irreconcilable Acceptance Of Near-Term Extinction,” By Daniel Drumright</b>


"Reader Warning: There are those who will recoil from the concepts contained within these articles. Some people may even want to retreat back into the bliss of the Matrix’s blue pill, and I wouldn’t blame them for a moment. Both of these articles contain the possibility of dispair and fear, and although I am not in dispair or fear – yet – I’m apparently a carrier and I’ve been aware of this possibility for some time and have been sitting with Daniel’s article for a couple of days. Hell, I’ve been sitting with mine for over a day! I hope you’ll do the same."


http://www.collapsingintoconsciousness. ... drumright/
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 07 Dec 2015, 23:30:12

careinke wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote: Correct me if I'm missing something but when has the majority of any population agreed to significantly reduce their lifestyles for the benefit of future (and specifically unborn) generations?


The closest one I can think of is the US during WWII. As a matter of fact, with a few minor variations, it would be a good model for today.

Not just the US UK and Australia and Im sure lots of other countries too
Im just not to sure of the motivation, were they dreaming of the plenty that would follow the short term sacrifice ?

Cuba's special period although forced on them was sold as good long term planning for the betterment of society.
Lots of change of diets agricultural practices and even better health outcomes and sustainability.
Opening the doors to the US isnt going to keep that dream alive for to much longer.
People think they want more bling
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 03:03:32

onlooker wrote: So this is the Catch 22, damned if we do, damned if we do not. I submit that their is not any reasonable, logical or effective means to deal with this predicament.


From another thread came this quote

Rod_Cloutier wrote: you can only swim upstream so long before you become exhausted and you end up having to go with the flow of the river. This is especially tough to face if you don't like where the river is taking you.


I think this explains something profoundly relevant to the question of mitigation. As we continue to use the remaining fossil fuels to peak our population and consumption on the planet we pile up the consequences which slowly defines the course of the rivers current for our species.

There is no real meaningful mitigation if we have the courage to look on the horizon at the looming ice berg and so we preoccupy ourselves with rearranging the deck chairs. Paris, Rio, Copenhagen, Tokyo, etc. etc.

It's a profound joke but nobody is laughing.

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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby careinke » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 07:01:22

I've been pondering my reply to Onlookers original post. Damn him for making me do some deep thinking! I personally don't hold much hope for Governments to be able to solve our problems. They are bought, and we have been brainwashed to actually believe we can make a difference at the national level.

I think a consumption tax, and carbon tax, replacing other taxes is our only hope of significantly reducing FF use while promoting alternate methods. Washington State has one of the highest gasoline taxes, a tax I support. It has worked very well in reducing our gasoline consumption to the point where revenues have fallen off. I thought GREAT lets raise them some more, make up for the lost revenue and further decrease gasoline consumption in our state. But the Dims don't think that is a good idea. Instead they want to install devices to track our mileage, (can you say big brother), and tax every one on mileage driven no mater the fuel efficiency of the car. Oregon already have this tax. I just think the Dims are more focused on extracting more cash to expand the Govt than actually trying to slow FF consumption and slow down AGW.

Anyway this is how I see things playing out in the US. Due to climate change we will see more crop failures world wide, especially with crops being grown using large scale commercial mining methods. This will cause food shortages and dramatically raise the price of food causing famine in MENA further pushing the Islamic migration north. Europe will soon be overwhelmed and try to close the boarders with limited success. The US seeing this, will "temporally" close our boarders to all immigration until the situation improves (which it never will). This is actually OK for the US, it could mean our survival.

As food becomes more expensive, or unavailable, gardens will be an economically viable option to supplement not only their calories but also income. This is where I, and over ten thousand other Permaculture Designers in the US come into the picture. Working against big government, not by force, but by making government mostly redundant and not needed. We have a serious set of ethics: Care of the Earth, Care of People, and return the surplus to the first two ethics. All of our design decisions are run through these ethics and we apply them to not only growing food but energy production, shelter, income, and community.

Recently, the permaculture community has basically come to the conclusion that sustainability is not enough. Eventually something will come along and knock you off, and lead to disaster. In order to have any hope, we need to be more than sustainable, we need to become regenerative. We need to improve conditions not sustain them, we need to regenerate the lands we have raped, and provide designs that last for generations and not only protect the environment but improve it.

In addition to permaculture designers, there are hundreds of thousands of others in the US who are practicing permaculture in one form or other. For example, Jack Spirko, a Die hard Permaculturist and self proclaimed Minarchist, earns his living by podcasting. He has a daily audience of over 100,000 listeners to his hour plus shows. Interestingly, he does not believe in AGW, he does however believe we are killing ourselves in other ways. That's OK, because his actions and beliefs naturally lead to a smaller carbon footprint. Every show has a permaculture slant. He teaches preparedness by working on disasters that are most likely to affect you personally first, then take the next most likely, then the next and so on. Knowing you will never be able to cover them all but you build your independence as you progress. The podcasts are free, he makes his money by people becoming members. They pay an anuual or monthly membership fee. He in turn gets sponsors who do not pay him directly, but rather provide discounts to his members. They are worth several times the membership cost, there are also other benefits given out by guest speakers to members from time to time. Bottom line, he has set it up as a win/win situation that is completely voluntary. If you want, you can just listen to the podcasts for free.

On the other side of the spectrum, Paul Wheaton also has a large following on his web site, and is setting up a permaculture fiefdom on a large plot of land in Montana. He also puts out videos and has a podcast. His organization also sells these awesome permaculture deck of cards.

These are just two examples, there are others.

Finally, Permaculturist love to try things out and post their results (especially their failures) over the internet. Some one comes up with a design idea, announces he is going to test it, others may try also in a different climates or areas. Results are freely shared and we learn and improve.

Permies understand TSWHTF sooner, rather than later. They have a large presence of over 250,000 practitioners in the US, and are growing rapidly, as more and more Americans wake up to our destructive and toxic ecological practices, increasing distrust of the government especially the USDA and FDA, a desire to know what is in the food you eat, and the increase in the cost of heathy food.

With proper design the US can easily support our current population, vastly decrease our carbon foot print, and repair the land, and adapt to the upcoming climate extremes. The only question is will our government let us?

My personal plan:

1. Continue to try new permaculture ideas and spread my results.
2. Provide positive direction to people who are ignorant of helpful solutions (Like when I pointed out, there really are underground greenhouses on this thread).
3. I do not expect the government to fix things, keep me safe, or provide for my needs. That is my responsibility.
4. I will continue prepare the family property, to be able to quickly accommodate our extended family, for an extended time, in case of a Major disaster such as the expected 9.5 quake along the west coast, or large scale civil disturbances. Of course they will all have to work to secure a spot, and they are aware of that, (my extended family has a large and diversified range of skills).
5. Provide more attractive and less expensive alternatives than chemical pesticides and FF based fertilizers. to the local gardeners.
6. Continue to provide free tours through the County Conservation District and local Water Management District (Who provide the liability insurance) to show case Permaculture design elements I am using.
7. Make sure my 6 month grand daughter is taught the skills she will require in the coming s#it storm, to not only survive, but be a part of the solution.
8. Encourage local production for as many of our needs as possible.
9. Never sell my surpluses without making a profit, I will refuse to sell it at a lower price, instead I would give it away to my neighbors, or maybe to my local "Buy Nothing" FB page. My neighbors will probably look for something they can give to me that I need or don't have. At the very least they will get to enjoy some good produce.
10. Try and improve things for four generations beyond me.

These are all actionable actions I can personally do. Well it work? Who knows? But it certainly will not hurt.

Holy smokes! I think Sixes talent for verbose prose may be rubbing of on me. 8O
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 11:41:52

I too find myself in the uber Doomer camp. I see nothing humanity is willing to do that will significantly improve the situation. The first and biggest concrete problem is over population.

I think there is evidence of this when we look around the world. There are sufficient areas in advanced state of decay right now that we can safely extrapolate our future. Look to the very densely populated areas that have resource limitations. Look to west Africa, phillapeans, India, Bangladesh, São Paulo, Rio, Mexico City. None of them are managing their populations downward. None of them are doing well for the average guy. None are managing for the future.

I fear that as our cumulative problems mount there present will be our future.

You don't see the folks at the bleeding edge of collapse crying for rational reactions, you see them crying for more of what got us where we are.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 11:45:10

KaiserJeep wrote:Note that knowledge is never lost, and societies never decay into barbarism. It won't happen this time, either - life will be hard, and you might have to settle for a smaller HDTV size than you want, and less sugar and less meat and more vegetables than you prefer - not a bad thing for most of us. You also will be walking and bicycling more than today - and unless wealthy, won't own a car.


Err... Vegetables are just about the most expensive food item per calorie there is.
Beef and pork are pretty expensive.
Farmed fish and chicken are quite a bit cheaper.
Legumes and tubers are plain cheap.
Grains are dirt cheap.. And sugar, is only the tiniest bit more expensive, when made from corn.

The counter is that it is easier for folks to grow their own vegetables and herbs than it is for most folks to grow grain or livestock. So its not too difficult to have in season cucumber, pepper, basil, mint, rosemary, tomato, cabbage, squash, carrots, onion, radish; peas and beans; however corn is a bit harder, wheat and rice are absolute pains in the butt.

This disparity in expense will be amplified with any market economy disruption; the only reason it is even vaguely possible to afford fresh vegetables at any time of year is because the high tech market economy is functioning smoothly.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 12:00:50

KaiserJeep wrote:Note that knowledge is never lost, and societies never decay into barbarism. It won't happen this time, either - life will be hard, and you might have to settle for a smaller HDTV size than you want, and less sugar and less meat and more vegetables than you prefer - not a bad thing for most of us. You also will be walking and bicycling more than today - and unless wealthy, won't own a car.


Tell that to the people who ran the Library of Alexander, or if you want a new world example the mound Builders of Cahokia or the Maya will serve equally well as examples.

Also you need to define what you mean by 'barbarian'. While Poland and Turkey did not 'decay' into barbarism they were both over run by the Mongols and lost over half of their population for a couple generations. By the same token the Berber invasion of Spain in 711 caused almost a total recasting of the local civilization when it recovered from the effect5s of the invasion.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 18:51:52

From Plato's Timaeus:

And the priest replied, "You are young in soul, every one of you. For therein you possess not a single belief that is ancient and derived from old tradition, nor yet one science that is hoary with age.

[22c] And this is the cause thereof: There have been and there will be many and divers destructions of mankind, of which the greatest are by fire and water, and lesser ones by countless other means. For in truth the story that is told in your country as well as ours, how once upon a time Phaethon, son of Helios, yoked his father's chariot, and, because he was unable to drive it along the course taken by his father, burnt up all that was upon the earth and himself perished by a thunderbolt,--that story, as it is told, has the fashion of a legend, but the truth of it lies in

[23a] And if any event has occurred that is noble or great or in any way conspicuous, whether it be in your country or in ours or in some other place of which we know by report, all such events are recorded from of old and preserved here in our temples; whereas your people and the others are but newly equipped, every time, with letters and all such arts as civilized States require and when, after the usual interval of years, like a plague, the flood from heaven comes sweeping down afresh upon your people,

[23b] it leaves none of you but the unlettered and uncultured, so that you become young as ever, with no knowledge of all that happened in old times in this land or in your own. Certainly the genealogies which you related just now, Solon, concerning the people of your country, are little better than children's tales; for, in the first place, you remember but one deluge, though many had occurred previously; ...


The loss of the Library at Alexandria was surely the greatest loss to mankind in all of history.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 19:11:51

Cid_Yama wrote:From Plato's Timaeus:

And the priest replied, "You are young in soul, every one of you. For therein you possess not a single belief that is ancient and derived from old tradition, nor yet one science that is hoary with age.

[22c] And this is the cause thereof: There have been and there will be many and divers destructions of mankind, of which the greatest are by fire and water, and lesser ones by countless other means. For in truth the story that is told in your country as well as ours, how once upon a time Phaethon, son of Helios, yoked his father's chariot, and, because he was unable to drive it along the course taken by his father, burnt up all that was upon the earth and himself perished by a thunderbolt,--that story, as it is told, has the fashion of a legend, but the truth of it lies in

[23a] And if any event has occurred that is noble or great or in any way conspicuous, whether it be in your country or in ours or in some other place of which we know by report, all such events are recorded from of old and preserved here in our temples; whereas your people and the others are but newly equipped, every time, with letters and all such arts as civilized States require and when, after the usual interval of years, like a plague, the flood from heaven comes sweeping down afresh upon your people,

[23b] it leaves none of you but the unlettered and uncultured, so that you become young as ever, with no knowledge of all that happened in old times in this land or in your own. Certainly the genealogies which you related just now, Solon, concerning the people of your country, are little better than children's tales; for, in the first place, you remember but one deluge, though many had occurred previously; ...


The loss of the Library at Alexandria was surely the greatest loss to mankind in all of history.


I remember learning that the library was burned in Jr. High school world history class and thinking how sad it was because I have always loved books. It was years before I understood most of the books were in the form of multiple scrolls, not what we think of as books today.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Lore » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 19:12:59

I don't know, I have the feeling that the loss of mankind will be the greatest loss in history.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 19:19:00

Not for the "others." It's all perspective.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Lore » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 19:21:14

The others will rejoice, if any...?
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 20:55:01

Lore wrote:I don't know, I have the feeling that the loss of mankind will be the greatest loss in history.


Let me give you something to ponder.

Had that library not burned, those many centuries ago.

Today, the world would not be burning.

Much of our lament here resolves to the fact that we acquired technology without suitable maturity to wield it. We found something that would burn, and we burned it. We melted stuff, and shaped it. again, And again. And again. By the time someone had seriously thought to estimate how much CO2 was being output, we really were too far down the pipe to even consider a real change.

Imagine if everyone that first touched steam engines and internal combustion engines was part of a culture that had long since become comfortable with the notion that altering the atmospheric composition could alter the heat capture, and that that might be bad, and perhaps, exercised a bit more caution in those first years of use; recognizing both the useful work done, and the cost to life.

That culture of knowledge and reflection was set back terribly. But the blacksmith kept right on hammering; the cannonsmith kept forming his molds, wondering about alloy composition, temperatures, rates of cooling; that technology did not get set back greatly. It just kept on, but not informed by knowledge, just informed by "my cannonball flew 10ft further and the bronze didn't rip. Lets do that again."

Or even, maybe the technologists would have stumbled on Cid's ESAS methane problem; and the intellectually mature and knowledgeable world could have sat down and said, you know, this is a problem, but its a problem we can fix by inducing the next ice age early; and proceeded to do just that; because unlike our world, a world of mature knowledge is served by its technology, as opposed to the other way around.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Lore » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 21:56:21

AgentR11 wrote:
Lore wrote:I don't know, I have the feeling that the loss of mankind will be the greatest loss in history.


Let me give you something to ponder.

Had that library not burned, those many centuries ago.

Today, the world would not be burning.

Much of our lament here resolves to the fact that we acquired technology without suitable maturity to wield it. We found something that would burn, and we burned it. We melted stuff, and shaped it. again, And again. And again. By the time someone had seriously thought to estimate how much CO2 was being output, we really were too far down the pipe to even consider a real change.

Imagine if everyone that first touched steam engines and internal combustion engines was part of a culture that had long since become comfortable with the notion that altering the atmospheric composition could alter the heat capture, and that that might be bad, and perhaps, exercised a bit more caution in those first years of use; recognizing both the useful work done, and the cost to life.

That culture of knowledge and reflection was set back terribly. But the blacksmith kept right on hammering; the cannonsmith kept forming his molds, wondering about alloy composition, temperatures, rates of cooling; that technology did not get set back greatly. It just kept on, but not informed by knowledge, just informed by "my cannonball flew 10ft further and the bronze didn't rip. Lets do that again."

Or even, maybe the technologists would have stumbled on Cid's ESAS methane problem; and the intellectually mature and knowledgeable world could have sat down and said, you know, this is a problem, but its a problem we can fix by inducing the next ice age early; and proceeded to do just that; because unlike our world, a world of mature knowledge is served by its technology, as opposed to the other way around.


Really, what kind of magic do you think was in there? It could be just as probable that it was filled with a few shelves of dusty old scrolls about the great feats of noble leaders longed passed away.

Since neither you or I will ever know for sure it's always fun to speculate about myth and legend.
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Re: Monumental catch 22 of humanity and its significance

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 08 Dec 2015, 23:19:39

Porn, that's my guess.

Seriously, While it was a terrible loss I doubt that it would have made any difference. We knew enough far enough in advance. We knew enough to ask the questions for sure, we didn't.

I'm reminded of the Canadian guy who, in the late 1800's saw a steam powered trawler and said..."With that we will wipe out the fish." Or the whaling magnet who when confronted with the extinction of the last whales, and asked what it would mean to him, said.."We will catch them all, every one, if we have to go to the end of the Earth." (Or words to that effect). The whaling industry collapsed and he lost his shirt.

The real proble is we are afflicted with SFB. (S#%t For Brains)
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