[Lore]

Doom always seems to be 10 years away. I wonder why that is.

Unless you were one of the unfortunate that just died from the heat. Then your doom already happened.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I picked now.

For Outcast_Searcher let me add something, since 2004 depending on which year you pick the heating bill goes up and down 100 percent, and the same for the summer cooling bill. Heating in 2004, 2013, 2014 was very expensive. Cooling in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012 was very expensive. That left me with 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2011 as years with average costs for both winter and summer.

Not everyone is a blessed as you appear to be in central Kentucky, some of us are experiencing pretty extreme and unpredictable gyrations right now.

OK. I hear you. First, if you look at the maps showing temperature trends, KY is in the rare "much colder" area of the US. And we've had record storms and scary temperatures OCCASIONALLY in the past several years. However, even in the months those EXTREME events occurred -- my heating bill increased maybe 10%. (And generally in the summer, my A/C bill was lower as well). So, I think you're off by assuming that where I am is somehow absent GW effects. However, I try to look at the numbers in the context of the WHOLE, longer term, and objectively (not a knee-jerk reaction to a single month's gas or electric bill).

Now -- what percentage of ALL of your expenses is cooling and heating? 10%? Less?

Now, are you going to tell me that for EVERY year (on average) for the last decade that your combined cooling AND heating expenses have increased enough adjusted for your total income that it has hit your pocketbook by OVER 10% of your TOTAL income? In your case, heating was higher in four years and cooling three. And four years for the average. So if you are objective, it sounds highly unlikely to me that (even though some bills may be MUCH higher) Pops' criteria has been met.

For me, gas and electric (which covers much more than just heating and cooling, BTW) is well under 5% of my total (non-tax and non-charity) expenses per year. (I do try to minimize heating and air conditioning expenses via the thermostat and living with minor discomfort). So total deviations in hot or cool years is under 1% of my living expenses. Now, I'm supposed to assume that in the areas where people are claiming bills of disastrous proportions that they know the changes are hitting their pocketbooks WELL OVER 10 TIMES what I'm seeing?

I'm not buying emotion or anecdotal evidence on that. Show me some meaningful overall statistics and their methodology for large areas, and I'll reconsider.

BTW, I am NOT saying no effects are happening. I AM saying that on this site, I often see a tremendous amount of "doom is upon us" type emotion, with little substantive long term factual data to back it up.

[dohboi]

I'm just not sure how to rate near-death experiences in terms of percentages.

[Apneaman]

Apparently some still don't know what the Global in global warming stands for or the effects from the dozens of feed0back loops it has triggered. Doomsday will be different for different people and those who are fortunate enough to be born into a wealthy society may last a while longer. No such luck for these unfortunate souls.

Worst Flood in 200 Years — 1.2 Million People Displaced by Rising Waters in India

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/08/04/w ... -in-india/

[sidzepp]

I voted the next ten years not that I think there has not been serious problems with environmental degradation as a continuous problem since the invention of the steam engine but because there seems to be a shift in attitudes of people to various environmental concerns. It is still possible that Homo Sapiens will have an epiphany and create solutions to our critical environmental problems, but time is running out.

What is needed and what continually disappoints me with Peak Oil, is that most of the comments seems to come from doomsayers who offer no solutions other than head for the hills. This is a sad commentary; people turning to the survivalist mentality thinking that there existence has any meaning. I am concerned for my children and their children and what lies ahead and with the desire to leave them with a better place to live.

We need to elect officials who are willing to tackle the large businesses who continually sabotage efforts to preserve the environment.
We need to educate people on the dangers that we are faced with and offer solutions rather than scare tactics.
We need to participate locally to show people that it can be done.

[Lore]

I voted the next ten years not that I think there has not been serious problems with environmental degradation as a continuous problem since the invention of the steam engine but because there seems to be a shift in attitudes of people to various environmental concerns. It is still possible that Homo Sapiens will have an epiphany and create solutions to our critical environmental problems, but time is running out.

What is needed and what continually disappoints me with Peak Oil, is that most of the comments seems to come from doomsayers who offer no solutions other than head for the hills. This is a sad commentary; people turning to the survivalist mentality thinking that there existence has any meaning. I am concerned for my children and their children and what lies ahead and with the desire to leave them with a better place to live.

We need to elect officials who are willing to tackle the large businesses who continually sabotage efforts to preserve the environment.
We need to educate people on the dangers that we are faced with and offer solutions rather than scare tactics.
We need to participate locally to show people that it can be done.

Good for you, sincerely! If we're going to turn the corner then we need to focus on the solutions. The downer is trying to reach a critical mass, where you have a large group of people simply ignoring the problem.

[Newfie]

I voted for 10 years...based on living in Philadelphia. I think the urban area sort of hides the effects.

If I based it on living in Newfoundland it would have been 10 years ago. The effects are more apparent there.

Where I grew up in NJ is unrecognizable from my youth. It has changed drastically...due to a huge increase in population.

[Timo]

It seems to me that one's age will have a very large influence over how they answer this question. For the younger among us, everything seems BAU because there really haven't been those memorable times of relative stability in terms of climate. For the older among us, we have the advantage of having lived during those previous times when the climate was relatively stable, and the arctic ice melt was, quite literally, decades into the future. For us old timers, that future is now. The ice caps are melting. Temperatures are rising. The climate is not the same today as it was 30 or 40 years ago. We're witnessing the changes to our climate in real time. Changes are happening within our lifetime.

I guess that's a disadvantage of getting old. We remember the good old days, and they don't make weather like they used to.

[dohboi]

Good points, Newf. And now that over half the population is urban, direct awareness of change will often have to come from return visits to the old farmstead or fishing village.

Of course, the folks in Tacloban City (where Haiyan made a direct hit) probably have a pretty visceral feel for the devastating consequences of GW...

[Lore]

There s a lot to be said for location. Getting your feet wet right now in Miami at high tide is very different then having your home washed away during monsoons in Bangladesh.

Borrowed Time on Disappearing Land
Facing Rising Seas, Bangladesh Confronts the Consequences of Climate Change


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/29/wo ... &referrer=

[Peak_Yeast]

I voted 10 years from now... But it depends on how you understand impact on my location...

The politicians are impacting me by taxation and new laws.
The climate has not yet changed in any significant way where I live. At least not in a way that can be noticed by one as "young" as me

[GHung]

@ sidzepp who said: "We need to elect officials who are willing to tackle the large businesses who continually sabotage efforts to preserve the environment.
We need to educate people on the dangers that we are faced with and offer solutions rather than scare tactics.
We need to participate locally to show people that it can be done.....

....and Lore who said: "If we're going to turn the corner then we need to focus on the solutions."

What WE would that be? Please advise, because I'm clueless. The only WE I can think of is the WE in: WE, humans, are in fuckin' overshoot,, big time.

[Milret2]

Global warming where I live and how it affects me? I think this may well be the year when we will start to see crop failure famines worldwide of exceptional severity, water wars, migration wars, and more exceptional storm events. How will that affect me as a resident in a nice state like California, retired with a very substantial income from pensions, investments, and properties, reasonable health, good insurance, and being sixty four years of age? I am not at all sure it will affect me directly and, if it does, if it will be a ten percent or more decrease in my own life style but I have worries.

Maybe if I could do more then solar panels, fuel efficient vehicles, and recycling .. do something that I personally felt could materially affect the downward arc I perceive we as a species are on I would not worry or vote that this is the year things start really going bad.

[Hosj]

Summers here (Washington DC) have been getting warmer for many years. Although 2013-2015 have been comparatively mild, 2010-2012 were completely unmatched in the record. Concrete impacts are harder to quantify.

I'm also a climber. The Cascade Volcanoes' glaciers are in severe and rapid retreat. When I visited this summer many smaller glaciers had vanished completely. If they don't get a solid snow winter the losses could be brutal. Many routes up these mountains are getting more hazardous as crevasses open up earlier in the season. We could reach a point within a couple of decades where apart from some lingering ice up on Mt. Rainier and Mt. Baker, the glaciers of the American West would be a thing of the past.

[diemos]

Definitely at least now.

The acidification of the ocean caused by rising co2 levels is leading to a collapse of the food chain in the pacific.

https://triviahappy.com/wp-content/uplo ... raphic.jpg

[Timo]

@ sidzepp who said: "We need to elect officials who are willing to tackle the large businesses who continually sabotage efforts to preserve the environment.
We need to educate people on the dangers that we are faced with and offer solutions rather than scare tactics.
We need to participate locally to show people that it can be done.....

....and Lore who said: "If we're going to turn the corner then we need to focus on the solutions."

What WE would that be? Please advise, because I'm clueless. The only WE I can think of is the WE in: WE, humans, are in fuckin' overshoot,, big time.

You and me, and everyone else who understands, and is concerned about our status in overshoot. "We" is us. Neither you nor i can shift our responsibilities onto other people to do what needs to be done. If you are concerned about your future, and more broadly, our collective future, then you are resposibile for taking action to address your concerns. No one else will address your concerns for you. As humans, any one of us who is concerned about the future of humanity holds that same responsibility. "We" are the human race, and it is up to humanity to take responsibility for our future.

Simple enough for you?

[Fredrik]

I picked 10 years for impacts to show up, although the climate will probably still be tolerable for us (perhaps even more beneficial for agriculture). The major threats to Finland will be indirect, like large influxes of climate refugees. I'm worried about persistent droughts in South and Central Russia which may decimate Russia's food growing capacity, possibly causing a civil war / state of anarchy that national borders may not be able to contain.

[Newfie]

Global warming where I live and how it affects me? I think this may well be the year when we will start to see crop failure famines worldwide of exceptional severity, water wars, migration wars, and more exceptional storm events. How will that affect me as a resident in a nice state like California, retired with a very substantial income from pensions, investments, and properties, reasonable health, good insurance, and being sixty four years of age? I am not at all sure it will affect me directly and, if it does, if it will be a ten percent or more decrease in my own life style but I have worries.

Maybe if I could do more then solar panels, fuel efficient vehicles, and recycling .. do something that I personally felt could materially affect the downward arc I perceive we as a species are on I would not worry or vote that this is the year things start really going bad.

One possibility to do more would be to invest in some land and preserve it from being clear cut. Some years ago I bought 168 acres inCanada for $54,000 U.S. It is my personal carbon offset program.

[Cid_Yama]

You have to go back 50-60 years to find a healthy biosphere, maybe more. Economically my standard of living will not be impacted no matter what, but what about the loss of cool evenings sitting on the porch listening to nature's chorus and watching the magic of hundreds of fireflies dancing in the early night sky.

It's all gone; the crickets, the frogs, the fireflies, the occasional toad in the grass as well as the cool evenings.

I would call that a severe impact on my 'standard of living'.

Many of you haven't been around long enough to have a clue. Like Thorne at Saul's euthanasia in Soylent Green, "How could I have known?" You don't know what it was like before. How much has been lost.

By the 1970's the world was already turning browner. The birth defects among fish and amphibians were already apparent. Males were disappearing from the species, with an increase in hermaphrodites. And the human race hasn't been unaffected. More recent generations of males have been born with smaller penises and the distance between the scrotum and anus diminishing. All indications of growing hermaphroditism among humans.

I would call that a major impact on their 'standard of living'.

My favorite golf course was swallowed by rising water after heroic efforts to save it.

The way we live and spend our time has already been inalterably changed, never to return again.

And this was just the overture. The next 5 years will be devastating beyond imagining.

[onlooker]

I think this sense of loss and grief is perfectly captured by Cid's post above. In some topic we had discussed how are people preparing for all this doom heading our way. I replied the only way is mentally by accepting it. As a pertinent religious quote states: "Lord give me the strength to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference"