[waegari]

As it would seem from this story, posted by Carrie on the news board, the World Bank comes quite quite close to admitting to peak oil, at least for the Middle East.

Gulf oil producers are struggling to expand their spare crude output capacity to meet surging global demand and their plans are blocked by manpower shortages, security factors and their ageing oil reservoirs, according to the World Bank.

Such factors have led to a sharp decline in the region's spare capacity and allied with international demand to keep oil prices at historically high levels, the bank said in a study on the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region.

By August 2005, the idle output capacity of the six main Gulf oil producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Iraq and Iran has plummeted to only 1.7 million barrels per day, its lowest size since 2003 and one of its smallest levels.

As a result, oil prices have sharply increased and are expected to remain high because of obstacles facing the region in its efforts to expand capacity, including lack of manpower and equipment, ageing reservoirs, the boycott against Iran and instability in war-battered Iraq, the bank said.

While some regional producers have resorted to water and gas injection to maximise the flow of their wells, such techniques could be damaging.

"The lack of spare oil capacity has largely been shaped by the fact that Opec countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have boosted production to meet global demand. However, there are underlying concerns about future capabilities of the region to generate spare capacity due to limitations on manpower, equipment shortages and, <b>more importantly for the long term, aging oil reservoirs</b>," the report said.

[Zardoz]

Very significant story, for sure. However, this very wrong bit of information tends to undermine its credibility a little:

...producers are more inclined to increase upstream production on heavy crudes despite the price discounts. It cited Saudi Arabia, which currently produces 11 million bpd of heavy crudes...

Just about everybody who prowls these forums knows Saudi Arabia's current output is about 9.1 to 9.4 MBPD, and most of it is very high-quality stuff. It's hard to understand how the author made a mistake like this.



Yeah, I know the above adds up to a lot more than 9.4. There's no way the actual production is that high. Rockdoc123 has a much better handle on the actual numbers. His chart:

[Geko45]

It cited Saudi Arabia, which currently produces 11 million bpd of heavy crudes...

It's hard to understand how the author made a mistake like this.

It looks like they dropped the decimal point. It should have been 1.1 mbpd.

[Geko45]

It cited Saudi Arabia, which currently produces 11 million bpd of heavy crudes and is planning to raise capacity to 12.5 million bpd by 2009, by investing heavily in oil field developments.

Scratch that, the full quote makes it clear they got it wrong.

[shortonoil]

.

Another comment that would lead one to believe that the author is not very well informed:

While some regional producers have resorted to water and gas injection to maximise the flow of their wells, such techniques could be damaging.

Secondary extraction techniques such as water and gas injection have been used quite reliably for several decades. He probably meant damaging overproduction by utilizing secondary techniques.


"The Senior White House staff is living proof that Pentecostal
mongoloids regularly cohabit with chimpanzees, frogs and Norway rats"
-Dr. Myron Kalbfuss, Biology Department, Stanford University

.

[grabby]

PEAK OIL is the end of CHEAP OIL

Are we cheap yet?

[Zardoz]

..If you put the pieces of the puzzle together even a half baked private eye can see this case reeks of conspiracy, greed, and power lust.

In other words: Business as usual.