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Gulf of Mexico Update

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Gulf of Mexico Update

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 01:07:41

Sub - "the Bakken only declined 30,000 from September to December, October and November were way up from the long term trend. Comparing December to November while ignoring those facts smells strongly of cherry picking the eata to get the result you want," Tell Art, those are his numbers...not mine. I was suspicious to. But I eventually found data from the ND state officials.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... zWnknbu24Q

And while it did increase last Oct and Nov from Sept by Dec 2016 it dropped back to the lowest daily rate since Jan 2014...895,330 bopd. The interesting stat from the state is the change in the average daily rate per well: from the peak of 144 bopd in June 2012 with a gradual but fairly consistent decline to 83 bopd by Dec 2016. So even with the newer (but fewer) wells having improved initial production rates it hasn't abated the declining trend in either total daily production or the average rate per well.

According to the state regulators Bakken production peaked at 1.153 mm bopd in June 2015 and has declined to 0.895 mm bopd by Dec 2016. So according to the ND state regulators Bakken production has declined 258,000 bopd by Dec 2016. IOW a decline of 22.4% in 18 months.

No cherry picking required.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Update

Unread postby tita » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 04:14:31

>pstarr
GOM production decreased since 2009, but came back to its high levels with new developments. The increase began somewhere between end of 2013 and start of 2014. Now, we are heading for new highs in 2017. When all eyes are focused on shale plays, it is interesting to know that recent increase of US prod came from offshore.

>subjectivist
You're right, we can't use a single month to month comparison to set a trend. But since april 2015, shale production has been decreasing. It seems that weather conditions were a reason of the decline of december. But october increase was also due to reasons outside the general trend. We may see shale production stabilise in 2017, or increase, but we have to look in the rear-view mirror with several months of data to assert it. But it is clear that Bakken or Eagle Ford are no more the hottest plays in the US in term of potential.
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Update

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 12:10:27

tita - Let's not get confused: the offshore "GOM production" referred to has nothing to do with any onshore oil production...shale or any other play.
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