Ok, so there's the whole "Exxon-Mobil" backdating graph, the one we all know and love, the one that shows discovery backdated by year of discovery:
Now, it's labelled "discovery," but in a past topic I made, we all agreed on this forum that they have to be "resource" bar. Ergo, only about 30-40% of each bar is likely to be recovered. Because that's the only way we could be 1/2 way through the world's oil already today, right?
(Side question: is this graph authored by Exxon-Mobil, or is it ASPO backdating Exxon-Mobil's data?)
Still, if I go to http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/lecture.html then there's this little number:
But then I go find the PowerPoint out of Campbell's latest book, The Truth about Oil & The Looming Energy Crisis only 1991 is positive.
And in figure 5 (page 43) of Power Down by Richard Heinberg, I see "Discovery - Consumption" was negative every year beyond 1980. Except two: 1982 & 1991.
But how do these facts square? Why does the Exxon-Mobil data, even plotting resources and not reserves, show a pretty consistent oil deficiet after 1980? Could it be that the bars are reserves after all? Why are there 4 different stories from backdating of reserves?
I ask because I'm writing an article, and I want to say "after the 1980's, every year the world found less oil than it produced (with the exception of X)." And I can't find any agreement on X.