[Twilight]

The problem with this poll is that it takes gas prices in isolation, when it's more likely that all petroleum based, produced, or transported products would also at least triple.

A few other notes: Europeans, Canadians, Japanese, etc. would have smaller percentage increases than in the US, since a greater portion of their current costs are taxes.

Yeah, and it's worth repeating that this applies to everything, not just fuel. Food in the US could double in price by calorie content, I doubt most people in the EU or Japan would notice as big a difference, everything seems twice the price already.

Whether we would ration by price or quantity probably depends on whether Democrats or Republicans are in charge. The Republicans are probably more likely to continue using price to ration. ... If the rations are tradable credits, however, and they aren't use or lose, I'd be happy to sell extra to someone else.

As you can imagine, introducing a ration by quantity that's transferable is introducing a ration by price through the back door. I can see that being very convenient politically - appear egalitarian, sell the idea of everyone in the same boat pulling together - but really those with money would just buy up everyone's entitlements. And obviously the poor will sell, they will want to afford the food that's increasing in price.

Past UK fuel protests never reached a severity where the government had to do anything, but it was very instructive to see companies ration by price and/or quantity on different days in different places, sliding scale for different types of vehicle, on an ad hoc basis, no coordination whatsoever. It just meant that people with time and money queued at the next station and got a second serving.

That is something no-one has mentioned yet, it slipped my mind too, but I was painfully aware of it back in 2000 - the sheer waste of time. Maybe you can afford $10+ per gallon financially, but at that price the waiting time is so great that you forgo motoring completely? It may not be a financial matter, but a lifestyle matter. Would you queue all evening? The following evening, after being turned away? Through the weekend? Can you? Maybe pay someone to do it for you? How much extra?

A bit different in WW2 though, limited motoring and consumption in the first place, no consumer culture, rationing by quantity, limited transferability, the condition of the urban poor actually improved a great deal. However, social conditions are different now, it would be difficult enough to reintroduce a similar system in Europe, in the US it would be political suicide.

I reckon in the end, how much you can afford to pay will depend on the price of a basket of goods, on how much time you are prepared to queue, and the actual setting of levels will be delegated to the energy companies. The market will impose the best solution, and all that good stuff. Taking responsibility for resource allocation means implicitly taking responsibility for the crisis, the last thing any government would want. Safer to cheer the companies on from the sidelines.

[DantesPeak]

Even though I answered the question based upon price alone, gasoline will be allocated by government more and more as the price rises. It might make a small difference who's in charge of state and federal government, but not much.

For instance, after Katrina, the DOE allocated gasoline in short supply at the wholesale level from Texas to Florida – although this action received almost no publicity. Also it was a shortage of gasoline that caused most of the demand destruction post-Katrina, and not because of the high prices that resulted from the shortages. Yes, there was some demand destruction based on price, but not much. Suburbanization, larger vehicles, and a rising population relentlessly increase demand. Now that gasoline consumption is running at more than 3% over comparable last year levels as supplies have been restored, it's easier to see that higher prices do not discourage demand much for the country in total (even while some individuals are cutting back).

So I agree we may not get past somewhere around $10 gasoline (in 2007 dollars) because of major governmental controls.

[kmann]

I already did cut back, to less than half of prior useage. Though cost was not the primary reason, time was, it was certainly factored in. I got tired of wasting an hour and a half a day on driving. Now it's 10 minutes each way. And I could bicycle in to work now except the last mile or so is on a very bicycle unfriendly route. Also, I checked the bus routes in this town - it would take an hour and a half each way, about the same time as if I just walked the whole way.

[MonteQuest]

That is something no-one has mentioned yet, it slipped my mind too, but I was painfully aware of it back in 2000 - the sheer waste of time. Maybe you can afford $10+ per gallon financially, but at that price the waiting time is so great that you forgo motoring completely? It may not be a financial matter, but a lifestyle matter. Would you queue all evening? The following evening, after being turned away? Through the weekend? Can you? Maybe pay someone to do it for you? How much extra?

Maybe not in this thread, but I have mentioned it several times in others. In the 1970's, we got up at 4 am to wait 2 hours in line for the gas station to open at 6am to get 5 to 10 gallons, Often, they would run out before you got any.

Maids and butlers were targets if ire, as folks didn't like gas "proxies".

And yes, some paid $10/hr for someone to sit in that line.

[MonteQuest]

The problem with this poll is that it takes gas prices in isolation, when it's more likely that all petroleum based, produced, or transported products would also at least triple.

Yes, but it is with transportation that we must start, as that is the big user and where it will be felt the most.

Hard to do an all-encompassing poll.

[pea-jay]

Curb my gas demand? Sure but it wont help much. I put in one tank of gas (12 gallons) every other month in the winter when I drive to work and take my youngest to school on rainy days. I hardly use any gas during the summer when I bike. If I was assigned ration cards for gas, you would see me turning around and selling them at a significant mark up. It would make me more money than my 40-50 gallon annual gas purchases.

Still I echo others, $10 gas will cause enough unrest to preclude much in the way of further price increases. Plus the economic damage will itself drive down gas demand. Sure plenty will continue to commute to jobs that pay more than their newly expensive drive would cost them. But they would make enough cutbacks elsewher to drive someone else out of business. Look at the luxury and frivelous items to go first. A ditched vacation maybe. Less starbucks and more folgers. Enough people do that an boom, you've got unemployed baristas, cashiers, handicrafters and others that depend on the fat of society. And oh yeah, the poor will pretty much stay home. Which means finding janitors for those suburban office parks will get more difficult.

Two professions already impacted are pool cleaners and lawn guys. Both have high fuel costs and low margins. Both do tasks the average homeowner could do themselves. The LA times did a piece on pool cleaners being driven out of business by rising gas prices and D-I-Y homeowners that bothered to take out the pool cleaning guide.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Hi.
Opted for the $7 to $10 option. At $3.50/gallon of premium I just pay around $40 for a fillup. That is no big deal so paying $4 to 5 gallon wouldn't change things. A $100 fillup would make a bit of a difference. I wouldn't drive around just to explore. Would still take vacation trips though.
That was interesting that some folks here, about 40% have very elastic driving habits, and another quarter very inelastic. Someone mentioned that having a split between large fractions of the population that are highly affected by price at current levels and those whose demand is very inelastic is a recipe for disaster. I suppose that is because the thinking is the rich folks or at least folks with the inelastic demand would drive the prices up so much that a lot of the folks with the eleastic demand would suffer. I bet the folks whos demand is elastic are largely working class or live near public transportation and are more urban while those who say they would not change their behavior much are in the professional class and more suburban.

[eastbay]

Good poll.

I picked over $10.00 and I can't wait. Please, the sooner the better.

We have set our life to use minimum fuel. I have a scooter which gets 80 to 90 mpg which I can use 8 months/yr and do use for almost all local trips. My car gets 40+ mpg and basically sits in the driveway from April to November unless we all go somewhere together, in which case it's 120 or 160 mpg/ person.

Our monthly petrol bill averages around 50 bucks and at $10.00/ gallon we would drive less and pay maybe $150.00/mo. Oh, I realize other costs would begin to add up, such as costlier food and goods, but delaying this years into the future will only result in a sharper cliff bringing far more suffering.

That's why I hope this thing gets going quickly.

[max_power29]

No way it makes it to $10... I say they leave it low and just let the pumps go dry.

I think this is what has already been happening since summer 2006. they will keep the price low (as they can) until the pumps go dry.

[whereagles]

Last year, in my country we had gasoline at $7/gallon during the months of $70 oil. There was demand destruction of about 6% for gasoline and 1% in diesel. Now we're at $6/gallon and it's business as usual.

So is $7 the curb point in Portugal? It seems so if you're talking short-term spikes. If it stays at $7 for a long time, it's possibe that some sort of adaptation mechanism will settle.

[vision-master]

How are those public school systems going to get out of busing kids? After all, we can't have segregated school systems.

[FairMaiden]

I voted for the lowest rate bc I assumed the price of food and other goods would be affected as well. I can easily cycle everywhere I need to go if I have to - and I'd be getting much needed exercise.

[Plantagenet]

Today is the day to boycott the purchase of gasoline.

Is anyone here boycotting gasoline today?

------------------

"A message has been circulating via email and social networking sites such as MySpace encouraging people not to buy gas today “to protest high gas prices” and “put a dent in the oil industry for at least one day.” The message says there are 73 million (car-driving?) Internet users and the average car’s gas tank costs between $30 and $50 to fill up, so a one-day boycott would take almost $3 billion “out of the oil companies’ pockets.” (Again, Energy Roundup doesn’t vouch for these numbers – paging Numbers Guy again).

Similar “gas out” emails have circulated in years past — one said a gas boycott forced prices down 30 cents overnight, a rather dubious claim. According to urban legends reference page Snopes.com, the e-mail has surfaced about once a year every year since 2004 and first appeared in 1999. “A one-day ‘gas-out’ was proposed in 1999, and a three-day event was called for in 2000, but both drew little active participation and had no real effect on retail gasoline prices,” the Web site says.

This year’s boycott effort is also drawing much skepticism. “Aside from circulating some questionable math, organizers of this event stand exactly zero chance of having an impact on gas prices,” writes John W. Schoen at the MSNBC.com Answer Desk.

Economics Professor Pat Welch of St. Louis University also doubts the “gas out” day will work. “Needing gas ranks third behind needing to breathe and needing to eat,” he told the St. Louis Times-Dispatch, explaining that drivers would just buy gas Monday or Wednesday. “It’s a demand for a necessity, not for a luxury. If there aren’t a lot of substitutes, there won’t be a big swing away from gasoline as the price goes up.”

--the Wall Street Journal

[strider3700]

tommorrow's the supply report and I don't expect it to be good enough news to drop the price. It might still be bad news and increase the price. I'll be filling both the bike and the truck up today.

[PrairieMule]

I saw that.

I'm normally not the downer type, but I think the majority of the folks behind it and participating are unclear on the concept.

Reminds me of how the druids of the dark ages use to throw maidens down a well in hopes of gaining magic powers.

Don't hold your breath.

[Plantagenet]

Reminds me of how the druids of the dark ages use to throw maidens down a well in hopes of gaining magic powers.

Thats a waste of a perfectly good maiden, IMHO.

[I_Like_Plants]

All one-day boycotts show is that the addicts are able to coordinate the time they get their fix, not get off of the drug.

I'm keeping my Prius for now, it's too useful a hauler. My gas use is actually slowly going down though since I'm doing more errends on the bike. And if I get a decent offer, like as not I'll sell the Prius, but substitute it with a cheapo car that gets decent mileage at least, and bike even more - I'm not about to run out and get an SUV, in other words, I want my gas use to ratchet down.

[Plantagenet]

I've seen a few hybrids like the Priapus here in Alaska, but its still mostly the land of giant 4WD pick-ups. Seven months of snow and ice and -40 to -50 degree temps in the winter produce certain ineluctable requirements in a vehicle.