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Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Lore » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 17:27:34

KaiserJeep wrote:I'm NOT spending my time searching the web, seeking to spoon feed your head with knowledge. That would be your job. Note that there are beaucoups comments and web pages and blogs on this topic - and Evans has not been refuted - and any "climate scientist" would be foolish to attempt to do so, his mathematical skills dwarf theirs - the most prominent among them employed Evans to refine their own climate models.


No, it's your job. The burden of proof of is on you.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 17:32:20

Not my theory to prove, it belongs to Evans. If you wish to dispute it, you can still post comments on his web page, and get answers. But you will be disputing the work of one of the most talented mathematicians the world has.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Lore » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 17:41:41

KaiserJeep wrote:Not my theory to prove, it belongs to Evans. If you wish to dispute it, you can still post comments on his web page, and get answers. But you will be disputing the work of one of the most talented mathematicians the world has.


You're the one standing by his theory. So in otherwords you don't have a strong enough conviction to defend it, or more to the truth simply can't.

Maybe, Evans should just stick to mathematics and leave things alone that he doesn't understand.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby davep » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 18:00:28

It's your job to find someone who has peer reviewed his work KJ, as you stated that it had been done. Apart from it being a basic scientific requirement (and this being the second thread started on this subject with as yet not a sniff of peer review).
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 18:50:04

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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 18:58:14

KaiserJeep wrote:I'm NOT spending my time searching the web, seeking to spoon feed your head with knowledge. That would be your job. Note that there are beaucoups comments and web pages and blogs on this topic - and Evans has not been refuted - and any "climate scientist" would be foolish to attempt to do so, his mathematical skills dwarf theirs - the most prominent among them employed Evans to refine their own climate models.

This is "The Troll Reading Assignment" strategy where some troll says "You accept my bs at face value unless you spend a month debunking it. Here's a link!"

This is how a troll rationalizes being ignored and is able to tell themselves "I'm winning, ha ha ha ha!" although I'm not sure what they think they are winning.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby clif » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 19:38:34

I'm not sure what they think they are winning.


As in the Iraqi War debate 2004-2008, another Friedman Unit to continue BAU no matter the very real damage that does.

For those who don't understand what a Friedman Unit is;

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... KkSNWjzJfA
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 19:48:41

All of you couldn't be more wrong about me. As a matter of fact (and I have said this many times) I no longer debate whether or not the world is warming, cooling, or remaining exactly the same.

Likewise I have noted many times, the argument is moot. Collectively, humanity has decided to pump and burn all the oil, then dig and burn all the coal. What any of you think or say about this decision is completely meaningless.

What I most strongly object to is the attitude of intolerance and the outright abuse of those who hold differing political views than do the majority of members at PO.com. I personally do not share the majority opinion that carbon dioxide is forcing climate change, nor am I a Democrat.

What I am is unaligned politically, and deeply suspicious of politicians who seek any excuse - be it war, climate change, or anything else, to curtail our personal freedoms. I also feel contempt for anybody who has to stroke his own feeble intellect by hiding in the majority opinion on a large, complex, and ultimately indeterminate issue such as AGW/CC.

Because even if we do have a warming globe, we are possibly as much as 2900 years from the Climatic Optimum in this interglacial, and - if past "derived" temperatures are to be believed, about 3 degrees C below the typical peak CO temperature. I understand that is a very different world than the one we live in, but I also think it is both natural and survivable.

By contrast I DO NOT think that the end of cheap oil is survivable - simply because there will be war - nuclear war.

My last comment about Evans and his model: The man knows more about mathematics than the lot of you, and his numbers work. He has never claimed to be a climate scientist, and still doesn't. He created and offers a model that works - none others do, even those created by groups of the "ninety-seven-percenters". Anyone with basic computer skills, who knows his way around a spreadsheet, can confirm this for himself.

Of course, most of you will not know what to think until somebody posts a link to a paper in a respected journal. Evans has never published such, nor has anyone with the proper credentials ever disputed his model.

Which in the end has nothing whatsoever to do with being correct or incorrect. The world is full of climate scientists, and apparently 97% of them agree on everything under the sun, but cannot duplicate the success of Evans and his model.

Now THINK ABOUT THAT.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 20:02:19

"What I most strongly object to is the attitude of intolerance and the outright abuse of those who hold differing political views than do the majority of members at PO.com. I personally do not share the majority opinion that carbon dioxide is forcing climate change..."

What a completely and utterly idiotic thing to say.

The absorption spectrum of CO2 is NOT a 'political view.'

How many times do you have to be told that very, very simple fact before it will sink in!
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Lore » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 20:14:02

If we're just appealing to authority here, I pointed out a much smarter guy when it comes to climate science and models, Guy Brasseur, which says Evans model is essentially crap.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 17 Nov 2015, 20:19:09

Shaved Monkey wrote:Google is your friend
https://www.google.com/search?q=Accordi ... 8&oe=utf-8

Hey shaved, how are the fires near you? Heard 4 died overnight in Esperance.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Simon_R » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 02:23:13

Kaiser Jeep

Using a model to smooth and extend a curve will work (and may even predict and backcast successfully), but
until you can replicate this with a bottom up model, you will get the derision of the scientific community. A model like this, can only be the starting point, so it can be replicated by a bottom up approach, then it is useful, both as a predictive tool, and gives us the ability to vary individual components and see how the model performs/predict different outcomes.

AFAIK in science it is not enough to know that a thing occurs, you must know why. Interestingly this was the basis of the witch trials of the middle ages.

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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 02:36:33

SeaGypsy wrote:
Shaved Monkey wrote:Google is your friend
https://www.google.com/search?q=Accordi ... 8&oe=utf-8

Hey shaved, how are the fires near you? Heard 4 died overnight in Esperance.

Im Qld
My relos are near them though
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 03:54:06

OK bruz, I thought you were in the west for some reason. I lived in Qld for about 10 years, the best of which was a few years in the Atherton Tablelands, best garden I ever had was in Millaa Millaa. I left because of the work situation, would go back if I had the bucks, God's country.

Anyhow hope your family are well, better let the troll battling continue.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Doug_T » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 12:16:59

You guys need to catch up. Particularly all of the non-skeptical (i.e. gullible) folks. Enough of the personal attacks, ok?!!

The Notch Delay model was a quick-look; David is now progressing a much more robust and comprehensive approach: http://joannenova.com.au/tag/climate-research-2015/

Synopsis to date is here: http://jo.nova.s3.amazonaws.com/guest/d ... models.pdf
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 13:25:12

Doug_T wrote:You guys need to catch up. Particularly all of the non-skeptical (i.e. gullible) folks. Enough of the personal attacks, ok?!!

The Notch Delay model was a quick-look; David is now progressing a much more robust and comprehensive approach: http://joannenova.com.au/tag/climate-research-2015/

Synopsis to date is here: http://jo.nova.s3.amazonaws.com/guest/d ... models.pdf
He's got some pretty elaborate mathematical climate modelling there.
And pretty pictures.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby davep » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 13:40:57

Well, I'm convinced!
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Lore » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 13:50:30

I'll wait to see it published in a lagitamat scientific journal and commented on by experts.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 13:58:32

Lore wrote:I'll wait to see it published in a lagitamat scientific journal and commented on by experts.

Hey, it's going through the "peer review process", which turns out to mean comments on Jo's blog.
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Re: Dr. David Evans and his Notch-Delay Solar Theory

Unread postby Lore » Wed 18 Nov 2015, 14:01:58

Keith_McClary wrote:
Lore wrote:I'll wait to see it published in a lagitamat scientific journal and commented on by experts.

Hey, it's going through the "peer review process", which turns out to mean comments on Jo's blog.


Yeah, they're tied at the hip in denial.
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