Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
Didn't they have it even higher, at one point?lowem wrote:We probably shouldn't put too much stock in it, but IEA some time back came out with 2 decline rate figures :
4.6% "with necessary investments"
6.4% "without necessary investments"
I don't think history can be much of a guide here, except to note how recessions, and associated demand drops, affect investment. Once we are into a downward spiral (recession, patch growth, recession, patchy growth ...) it's hard to see how oil production declines would not accelerate. On a related note, it's also hard to see how investment in alternatives will ever get to the levels needed (even if it were possible for alternatives to substitute for oil declines in scale and utility).pup55 wrote:We coined the term Nordic Slide a few years ago, when it appeared that the North Sea production was contracting by 6 or so percent per year, but last year it was only 4 percent....
Australia, the "aussie slide" was about 6 percent a year for the first three or four years after they had peaked, but they actually have stabilized their industry and there was a bit of an increase in 2008.... They declined 1.5 percent last year...
Mexico: That will be the poster child for the "unable to do reinvestment" case.... they dropped 9 percent this year and are within maybe 3 years at this rate from being a net importer of oil.....
Somehow, I think we'll get to a world changing point well before a 50% decline.Ayoob wrote:I don't know why, but for some reason that 50% threshold looks like a watershed to me. I think the game will be so different on the other side of that number that we're all just dreaming during the intervening time. We can't imagine what the rules will be under those circumstances. How does your life change as the economy collapses around you once and for all, and we all become incredibly poor over the course of about 15 years? What happens at the end of that?
Revi wrote:If we have a supply problem there will be real trouble in places like Maine, where most of the state heats with oil.
lowem wrote:
Anything less than 4% is cornucopian thinking. ------18 years until 50% of production is lost
4-6% is a moderate rate.-----------------------------------14.4 years
Anything over 6% is doomer territory.-------------------12 years
And of course that would be aggregate global oil production decline rate, post peak oil, as opposed to individual oil field decline rates.
Ayoob wrote:lowem wrote:
Anything less than 4% is cornucopian thinking. ------18 years until 50% of production is lost
4-6% is a moderate rate.-----------------------------------14.4 years
Anything over 6% is doomer territory.-------------------12 years
And of course that would be aggregate global oil production decline rate, post peak oil, as opposed to individual oil field decline rates.
Not much of a difference when measured against my (expected) lifetime.
18 years or 12... what's the practical difference to me?
Decline could be greater than 6% anyway. Why couldn't it be 9% given crashing oil prices due to an economic collapse? Maybe it could be even greater than 9%! Still, that would only shorten the crash from 12 years to 7... again pretty meaningless given my remaining lifespan.
Constant, crushing poverty for the remainder of my lifetime starting at age 45 or 56... what's the difference? Either way I wake up in the morning in search of something to eat along with several billion of my closest friends.
Ayoob wrote:I think of it in terms of a 50% threshold. When are we down by one-half? If the world is at 82MBD, when do we get to 41MBD?
Also, if the US uses 20MBD, and that amount represents currently one-fourth of world output, then we would consume about 50% of world output... which means a doubling of our SHARE, just by standing still.
I don't know why, but for some reason that 50% threshold looks like a watershed to me. I think the game will be so different on the other side of that number that we're all just dreaming during the intervening time. We can't imagine what the rules will be under those circumstances. How does your life change as the economy collapses around you once and for all, and we all become incredibly poor over the course of about 15 years? What happens at the end of that?
There have been great wars fought over much less.
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