[crapattack]

Oslo wrote:

If you read the whole article it gives a ridculously benign impression about oil prices, oils supplies and their economic impact. Are these guys told to lie or are they just thick?

It is so confusing how all these mainstream "experts" seem so unconcerned.

Thick. They fail to see through the dense fog of their own incomprehension. Not imaging that oil supply could every be in any real jeapordy they fail to see that it is. It's like one of those tacky image puzzles from the early nineties. Stare real hard and you see the dolphins..or not. They're not dumb, they're blind.

[grabby]

For a while there I was worried we were using up our oil.

[Etalon]

The positive feedback for oil shale isnt THAT harsh. If nuke stations are used to extract the oil (which is the plan I believe) then that positive feedback is pretty low. Oil shale extraction is expensive, but doesnt rise double in cost when oil prices double, thats just a silly approximation.

I belive oil shale is economically viable, (so long as natural gas doesnt get really expensive, which it will (maybe eletrolysis of water to get the hydrogen?)).

It being economically viable doesnt mean itll save us though, as the production rates will not be enough.

[Raxozanne]

The EROEI for the sands is nowhere near as good as oil but it will help round off the peak for Canada and the USA, this said of course it won't be of any use in the face of an expected global demand of 120 million barrels per day mid century.

[dohboi]

"Shale oil is the energy of the future...and always will be." Any one know who first said it?

[Free]

When I read the headline I thought this would be about Dollar reserves...would make much more sense.

By the way, what's the difference between "virtually" and "literally" in English? You always gotta look at the small print with them kinds of guys...

[Schneider]

If I were a young person living in North America, I would seriously consider moving to Alberta. The local economy will likely prosper well into the future.

I don't think so..

Just wait 8 to 10 years,when the supply of natural gaz used to extract oil from the tar sands will be (mostly)depleted !

Natural Gaz is in decline in North America,remember !?

Schneider
French-Canadian

[nero]

Yes the oil sands are going to be a big deal, they already are a big deal. They're making money right now at Fort McMurray. Heck they were making money up there when oil was in the 20s. If you dismiss the long term potential of the oil sands you're probably got too much invested in your personal doomer fetish and are not thinking objectively about the problem.

Now in the short term you can make an argument that their production will not have a significant impact but in the long term it is a significant source of energy.

[crapattack]

Nero:

If you dismiss the long term potential of the oil sands you're probably got too much invested in your personal doomer fetish and are not thinking objectively about the problem.

Take a look at this, http://www.technologyreview.com/NanoTec ... 18,p1.html, posted by DigitalCubano on http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16102.html, and say that. The amount of fresh water and NG used is staggering let alone the environmental impacts. Currently the tar sands produce 220,000 bpd, and they are going all out to try to reach 350,000 bpd by 2008. CAEP estimates the tar sands can produce, 2 million per day by 2010, according to http://www.energybulletin.net/3458.html. The world consumes 82million bpd. Given these numbers tar sands is hardly the "significant source of energy" you describe even if they reach their target in 2010. Considering how difficult it is to extract and process, extremelly expensive monetarily and environmentally as well. One thing for sure is it's making investors lots of money.

[ColossalContrarian]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

My WAG is $85 a barrel.

here's some more info:
The returns on extracting oil from tar sands is approximately 3 barrels of oil for every 2 consumed.

EROEI of 1.5

Tar Sands are about to get OWNED!!! as in going out of business for awhile....

Tar Sands info

[Blacksmith]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

My WAG is $85 a barrel.

here's some more info:
The returns on extracting oil from tar sands is approximately 3 barrels of oil for every 2 consumed.

EROEI of 1.5

Tar Sands are about to get OWNED!!! as in going out of business for awhile....

Tar Sands info

Natural Gas was $6.36US today, at a ratio of 1:5, that's $31.80US per barrel of oil equivalent, oil is selling for $46.85US, difference of $15.05US. The way to hurt these people is to use more natural gas.

[Dreamtwister]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

My WAG is $85 a barrel.

here's some more info:
The returns on extracting oil from tar sands is approximately 3 barrels of oil for every 2 consumed.

EROEI of 1.5

Tar Sands are about to get OWNED!!! as in going out of business for awhile....

Tar Sands info

Natural Gas was $6.36US today, at a ratio of 1:5, that's $31.80US per barrel of oil equivalent, oil is selling for $46.85US, difference of $15.05US. The way to hurt these people is to use more natural gas.

Your calculation doesn't even factor in things like maintenance and wages. $15/bbl is at best, wildly optimistic.

[KevO]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

It's losing $$$$$$ now and big time.
Tar sands are about to become a thing, and a permanent thing, of the past

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Good! but will they be forced to clean up the mess they'd already made? or will they just walk away saying they'll be back at some point so theres no point in totally fixing everything back to a pristine state.

[Blacksmith]

Your calculation doesn't even factor in things like maintenance and wages. $15/bbl is at best, wildly optimistic.

Then you are saying an EROEI of 1.5 is incorrect.

[harrybuckman]

At today's natural gas and oil prices. The cost to extract and produce for a company like suncor is around 30-32 $/bbl (the cost is around 35$/bbl at high oil and gas prices). So at current prices they still make 15$/bbl. At a dailly production of 230 000 bbls it puts a daily profit of almost 3.5 million dollars.

I don't know about you but if I was making 3.5 million every 24 hrs, I don't think I would close up shop just yet.

The oil sand are here to stay for as long as we all live, because that oil is already found and developed.

[ColossalContrarian]

I can't seem to find a difinitive source for the eroei of tar sands but I found another source:

"Over the past few years, I have seen a lot of speculation about the EROEI of tar sands (also known by the more marketable term, 'oil sands'). I had seen estimates ranging from as low as 1.5/1 up to 4 or 5/1. My own suspicion has been that the number was higher than that, and I once did a back of the envelope based on some industry energy usage numbers that put the number at about 8/1 (for just the oil production step)."

link

[Blacksmith]

One of my neighbours works for Syncrude, as of last week all expansion has been suspended and the only crews kept on will be maintenance and those crews will be reduced.

[Dreamtwister]

Your calculation doesn't even factor in things like maintenance and wages. $15/bbl is at best, wildly optimistic.

Then you are saying an EROEI of 1.5 is incorrect.

No, I'm saying you didn't factor in all of the dollar costs.