[pup55]

I've been tinkering with a fundamental model and came across this website:

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/welcome.html

which has an archive of all of the discovery announcements as they come out through various news sources.

Here is a summary of the 2004 announcements to-date:

In September, there was an announcement from Pemex about a 54 gb oilfield in the Gulf that they might or might not be able to get access to because the water is deep. This might have been more related to the US election and the oil markets than reality, but it is included below.

The other highlights were a 3 gb field discovered in China, and a 1 gb field discovered in Greece.

If you exclude the Pemex announcement, the remaining total is about 7.4 gb discovered this year. This compares to 9.5 gb discovered last year, according to

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn ... 8083n.html

There is plenty of sneakiness in this reporting. Some will report the output of the test well, without comment on the size of the field. Some will report the field size, but not on how easy it is to pump up. Some will talk about how many feet of oil formation they drilled through. All of this gives plenty of wiggle room when these are scrutinized by the investment community.

Also people are spending anywhere from $31 to $61 million for a well that will spew forth on average 4100 bod. This can be extrapolated out to compute the investment needed to get up to 120 gb/y per the IEA forecast.

Code: Select all

                 test well   Field Size
Date   Co   Location            BPD Net   MM BBl
November-03   Permiana   Thailand   -   424
November-03   Talisman   Vietnam   7300   
June-03   Agape   Tunisia                   2460   
December-03   Woodshed   Mauritania   -   200
June-04   Murphy   Malaysia                  -   700
July-04   Cairn   India            3800   
July-04   Trans globe   Yemen   1140   
July-04   Paladin   Tunisia                   3600   
July-04   Vietsov   Vietnam                   1100   
July-04   Orient   Pakistan                    350   
July-04   CNOOC   China                   1400   
July-04   Exxon Mobil   Caspian   4100   
July-04   Sinopec   China                  -    3,665
July-04   First Calgary   Algeria   6376   
July-04   Burneftegaz   Turkmenistan   876   
August-04   CNOOC   China                  700   
July-04   Chaco   Bolivia                    -   5
August-04   Cairn   India                    -   300
August-04   Dana   Indonesia                  4400   
August-04   GSPC   Amenhabad   1000   5
August-04   Billip   Australia                   -   100
August-04   Petrobras   Argentina                  -   30
August-04   Shell   Siberia                  -   592
August-04   Gudjarot   India                   -   45
August-04   Egpc   Egypt                 23000   46
August-04   Ecopetrol   Colombia                  -   14.9
August-04   CNOOC   China                3000   
August-04   Petrobras   Brazil                   -   76
September-04   Pan ocean   Gabon   -   
September-04   Ogdcl   India   2000   
September-04   Trans globe   Yemen   2240   
September-04   Regal   Greece   -   1,000
October-04   Petrobras   Brazil   -   4.6
October-04   Woodside   Mauritania   -   120
October-04   Petrobras   Argentina   -   0.3
October-04   Sasol   Gabon   6600   
October-04   Elvari   Sakhalin   -   
September-04   Dno   Nabraja   2700   
September-04   Petrobras   Brazil   -   76
September-04   Gail   India   -   50
September-04   CNOOC   China   3000   
September-04   Pemex   Mexico   -    54,000
September-04   Lapidot   Israel   -   0.75

test well result total      81142   bod   
                    30    mbpy   
field discoveries       61,455     mmbbl    
net of GOM discovery      7454.59    mmbbl

[savethehumans]

Nice job, Pup55!

Please keep an eye out for us, and let us know the year-end results when they are tabulated!

[pup55]

I guess no one caught it, but the second article above is a release from IHS Energy, formerly Petroconsultants, which is where Campbell got a lot of his data from.

The headline was kind of cheery, "stable oil supply seen, all is well" but read between the lines is the following: The remaining reserves amount to 1,250 gb, the cumulative production to-date is 1000 gb or so, and consumption is at 75-80 gb/y which means only about 2-3 years until 50% depletion.

Also, some comment to the effect that "luckily, we had all this oil discovery in the 60's through 80's which is why we are able to pump this oil at the current rate, but, oh, by the way, all that stopped in about '82".

Kind of entertaining. Doesn't say on the website how much they are charging for the report. Evidently, putting a spin of optimism on it (hooray, we have a whole three years before the peak) helps them get a few more sales.

[JohnDenver]

The headline was kind of cheery, "stable oil supply seen, all is well" but read between the lines is the following: The remaining reserves amount to 1,250 gb, the cumulative production to-date is 1000 gb or so, and consumption is at 75-80 gb/y which means only about 2-3 years until 50% depletion.

Current consumption is about 82 mb/d, and that comes to about 30gb/y, not 75-80 gb/y. So time to reach 50% depletion (1125 left) is 4 years.

[khebab]

For the second link. The original article is here:

http://www.ihsenergy.com/company/press/pressreleases/arc2004/pr_101804-trends.jsp

it has figures.

[johnmarkos]

Here's something on that Gulf of Mexico find:

http://www.mexidata.info/id270.html

Looks like this year's "discovery" data point will line up with the curve quite nicely.

[pup55]

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=19020

If this is the case, China now roughly equals Iran for reserves.
Global PO is delayed about 3 years, if 9 billion tons/67 gb are "proven".

This would have some geopolitical ramifications, if true. It would allow China energy consumption to grow at the current rate (10%) if they choose, for the next 15 years or so without increasing imports from the mideast.

After that, though, TSHTF and it would be even tougher to wean themselves off the stuff, since their annual consumption would be double what it now is. Alternately, more responsible growth for a longer time might be wiser.

Probably should keep track of this and see if it shows up in the BP Review next year and/or monitor for veracity. Might be just "happy talk".

[johnmarkos]

67 gb: more than the previous proved reserves for the entire region. If true, it would also be the second largest oil field in the world after Ghawar. It would also make 2004 the best year for discovery in history. I'm pretty skeptical.

[Cool Hand Linc]

Any updates on this?

Any other sites that you may have found that aid in tracking discoveries?

[pup55]

The announcements tend to come in a little slow, but it looks as though 2004 is about wrapped up.

The total is about 9.7 gb, excluding the China announcement for the Bohai field in December, and the Mexico announcement of the Gulf of Mexico strike in August.

In 2005 there have been two interesting announcements:

Indonesia strike at .17 gb:

Santos makes biggest oil strike in its 50-year history
21-01-05 Santos has made the biggest oil strike in its 50-year history -- a discovery that could dramatically transform the company's long-term prospects.
The full ramifications of the find off the coast of Indonesia have yet to be determined, but it has immediately quelled concerns about Santos's reliance on the declining fields of the Cooper Basin in central Australia.

and an announcement from Cairn to the effect that the field they discovered last year at .3 gb may turn out to be more like 1.1 gb, so that's "reserves growth".

The company's oil discoveries, Mangala and Aishwariya (formerly N-A field), are scheduled to bring oil production from the last quarter of 2007. Plateau rates are currently targeted at between 80,000 and 100,000 bpd.

I also occasionally check rigzone.com and oil and gas journal, but usually the announcements on gasandoil.com are collected from these sources so easier to track since they are all in one place.

Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections