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World Population Will Soar Higher Than Predicted

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United Nations leaders have worried for decades about the pace of population growth. A few years ago leading calculations had global population peaking at nine billion by 2070 and then easing to 8.4 billion by 2100. Currently it stands at 7.2 billion. Recently the U.N. revised these numbers steeply upward: the population is now expected to rise to 9.6 billion by 2050 and continue to 10.9 billion by 2100 (black line, below). What caused this drastic revision? Almost all the increase comes from Africa (pink line). Earlier models “had anticipated that fertility rates in Africa would drop quickly, but they haven’t,” says Adrian Raftery, a statistician at the University of Washington, who assessed the revised estimates. How the world will feed a few billion more people is the question of the day.

Scientific American

32 Comments on "World Population Will Soar Higher Than Predicted"

  1. andya on Thu, 27th Nov 2014 6:19 pm 

    Yep, good luck with that!

  2. Makati1 on Thu, 27th Nov 2014 6:35 pm 

    It will until it won’t…

  3. Newfie on Thu, 27th Nov 2014 7:13 pm 

    11 billion ? Rolling on the floor laughing my a$$ off….

  4. Lore on Thu, 27th Nov 2014 8:46 pm 

    There was ever little doubt that humans couldn’t possibly limit their numbers. It’s a biological incongruity.

    That is as suggested, until we hit some hard limits.

  5. dubya on Thu, 27th Nov 2014 11:34 pm 

    Are humans smarter than yeast?

  6. Sugar Seam on Thu, 27th Nov 2014 11:36 pm 

    lucky to get past 8-9 billion if shale flattens in 15-16′ as predicted by many

  7. meld on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 2:52 am 


  8. MSN fanboy on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 4:41 am 

    I ponder how long it is until they revise it past 11 billion.

    Its going to be a fast collapse.

  9. Kenz300 on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 7:26 am 

    The worlds greatest environmental problem — OVER POPULATION.

    Around the world we talk about a food crisis, a water crisis, a declining fish stocks crisis, a pollution crisis, a Climate Change crisis, an unemployment crisis and an OVER POPULATION CRISIS. Yet every year the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy for.

    The worlds poorest people are having the most children. They have not figured out the connection between their poverty and family size. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.

    Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.

  10. Davy on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 7:27 am 

    I wonder at what point these absurd predictions and forecast will become reality based. They sure appear to me to be an excel goal seek for BAU. Anyone that discusses a post BAU situation or even a sick BAU situation understands these projections are absurd. What is more absurd is these are supposed to be the best and brightest minds of our species. This is at least true with MSM and GP sheeples. We have little hope of adding another 500MIL to our current population with our current challenges. The systematic problems in finance, energy, and our ecosystems simply does not look favorably on these population forecasts. It does not look reality based. It appears merely BAU excel goal seek for the status quo

  11. bobinget on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 8:27 am 

    Nevertheless Davy, We soldier on. Population DISTRIBUTION, immigration, not simply growth, are already a major points of disagreements in the US, Australia, most obviously, Europe.

    LONDON—”As the planet continues to warm, heat waves and other weather extremes that happen perhaps once in hundreds of years—if ever—would become the “new climate normal”, a World Bank report says.

    The consequences for development would be severe: failing harvests, shifting water resources, rising sea-levels, and millions of people’s livelihoods put at risk”.

    Simply put, it’s impossible to properly manage EXISTING populations globally.

    Adding climate migrants to resource war refugees globally brings developed nations annual growth predictions to new perspective.

  12. antiwarforever on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 8:38 am 

    Now the only question remains when the “baby too many” will be born, in 2100 or later, making the whole human Ponzi scheme collapse…

  13. ghung on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 9:06 am 

    The bigger it is, the harder it falls.

  14. Dave on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 9:59 am 

    Sub-Saharan Africa, the basket case that just won’t go away. The world needs to take notice and in some humane way act.

  15. noobtube on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 10:11 am 

    The United States, the genocidal, war-mongering, mass murderering, psychopaths that just won’t go away.

    The world needs to take notice and act in some humane way.

  16. JuanP on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 10:23 am 

    I hope that when most men realize how hopeless the situation is and decide they want no more children, Vasectomies are still around.

    Guys, in a post collapse world, things like condoms, pills, or abortions may not be available or good as they are today. Men are fertile for most of their lives, some until they die of old age. Do you want to risk getting a woman pregnant 20 or40 years from now, under those circumstances, if you don’t want more children?

    Get a Vasectomy now and screw around the rest of your life worry free, even in a post collapse world!

  17. MonteQuest on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 10:58 am 

    Demographic Transition didn’t happen. I wonder why…I told you so. 🙂

  18. Dave on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 10:59 am 

    Perhaps the politicians are largely bought out in the U.S., but so many Americans truly want to do the right thing. Being in denial about the real horrible conditions of Sub-Saharan Africa and the fact that most of these countries have NEVER gotten their act together, won’t help a thing. Please don’t put labels on me I don’t deserve. The countries of the world that can help this region should. I good barometer would be a plunging fertility rate.

  19. noobtube on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 12:12 pm 

    A good sign that the American problem is being contained is the falling fertility rate and the aging population.

    The Earth needs to solve the problem of American aggression on a unsuspecting planet and it looks like the Earth is fixing it, slowly but surely.

    Eventually, the Waste (I mean, the West) will be eliminated and the evidence appears to support this.

    Americans hatred for life on Earth only leads to the destruction of Americans… but hey, you reap what you sow.

  20. GregT on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 1:59 pm 

    “A good sign that the American problem is being contained is the falling fertility rate and the aging population.”

    Sadly Noob,

    It is a human problem, and from your above statement, Americans are becoming part of the solution. Other parts of the world, that you appear so quick to support, are becoming more and more the problem.

    You are correct however, the Earth will eventually solve the overpopulation problem. The more overpopulated an area, the worse the situation will become.

    Hatred only leads to self destruction, and you have repeatedly shown how full of hatred you are….but hey, you reap what you so

  21. noobtube on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 4:40 pm 

    The lesson that Americans never learned is that genocide, mass murder, slavery, biological warfare, consumerism, capitalism, greed, and violence are not smart things… they are stupid things.

    Americans have spent their entire existence being as stupid as possible.

    For stupid behavior, you EVENTUALLY get stupid results.

    Americans keep acting and being stupid, and they continue to suffer for their stupidity… right until there are no more Americans.

    Americans are THE OVER-population problem.

  22. GregT on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 5:38 pm 

    “genocide, mass murder, slavery, biological warfare, consumerism, capitalism, greed, and violence are not smart things… they are stupid things.”

    Yes they are stupid things noob, but they are not American ‘things’, they are human ‘things’. Most are as old as man himself, and existed for thousands of years before America was even born.

    Your hatred is clouding any ability that you might have had, to think rationally.

  23. Makati1 on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 6:35 pm 

    GregT, but the US is practicing ALL of them to ridiculous heights. Hitler would be green with envy of the US activities over the last few decades.

  24. GregT on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 7:07 pm 


    Sorry, I don’t subscribe to prejudices, discrimination, racism, or generalizations. There are just as many good and bad Americans, as there are good and bad people of every other nationality.

    If the noob was to change his stance and imply that ‘some’ Americans, blah, blah, blah, I might actually agree with him, but painting 330 million people with the same brush, is ignorant, and downright idiotic. There is enough hatred in this world already. The noob itself, is a big part of the problem on this planet. Not the solution.

  25. JuanP on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 7:19 pm 

    Noob, I wish you could understand that if all of us living in the USA disappeared tomorrow, the rest of humanity would continue on the same course we are the day after.

    I have thought about it as a mental exercise, but there is no solution there, Noob. All it would do is buy the rest a little time , say a handful of years.

  26. noobtube on Fri, 28th Nov 2014 8:01 pm 

    If everyone who called themselves American (I mean every single one of these degenerates) disappeared from the face of the planet…

    the entire world order would disappear and be replaced by an entirely different reality. Nothing would be as anyone understands it today.

    Human life on the planet would no longer be on a collision course with oblivion (at least if the world could get to all these nuclear time bombs, aka nuclear plants/missiles/waste, that the Americans would have left behind).

    Unfortunately, that is a pipe dream. Americans are probably going to destroy as much life on Earth as they can before disappearing into the void.

    Americans are megalomaniacal, narcissistic, ultra-violent psychopaths… supervillains. There is a suicidal, self-destructive aspect to the character of Americans that is unmatched on the planet today.

    It is truly breathtaking to be alive and behold evil on such an awesome scale.

  27. peakyeast on Sat, 29th Nov 2014 9:51 am 

    JuanP: To some extent I think its sad that you got a vasectomy, but then i dont know your age.

    It would possibly be beneficial if your “kind” procreated AFTER the big crash – instead of random surviving stupid breeders.

    @Noobtube: I think you should listen to people and realize that what you accuse the Kwyjibo (A fat, balding north-american ape) for is, in fact, a general human trait. 🙂

    Besides: I believe I am imminent – i.e. max. 15 years.

  28. Kenz300 on Sat, 29th Nov 2014 10:23 am 

    Endless population growth only leads to more poverty, suffering and despair……….

    Wrap it up…… put a glove on it or snip it……..

    If you can not provide for yourself or one child , you can not provide for more than that…….. Having more children only takes away resources from your current children.

  29. Pveroi on Sat, 29th Nov 2014 12:03 pm 

    US = 5 percent of global population consuming 20 percent of global resources. Something creepy about an American complaining about Africa’s population to me. Please don’t forget IPAT equation. Anyone want to figure out how many Africans it takes to equal the impact of one consumer in New York City?

  30. Davy on Sat, 29th Nov 2014 12:59 pm 

    Good point Pvee but try to get it in perspective. The 1%ers and the 1%ers hanging out in the US are consuming the lion’s share of that consumption you are talking about. Please don’t blame the middle class and poor Americans for this consumption to the same degree. Most of the worlds very wealthy are consuming the lion’s share of the wealth within a variety of countries. The US is a primary location of this consumption by the 1%ers. The very wealthy have homes and businesses in the US.

    Your creepy feeling should be what is going to happen to those Africans if there population were to grow as forecast. We here know there forecasts are excel goal seek for a BAU future which is nearing its end game. World population growth will be lucky to add 500MIL in the next few years before bad things happen to bring that down.

    You should also be aware that the US consumption and population is in decline. It is only immigration that is maintaining the US population. The US is no longer the largest energy consumption region. You need to look over to Asia for those rights. If you like you can be a per capita freak like our board propaganda boy Mak.

    What is more just and fair is acknowledging a weighting or a proportionality of population and of consumption. If a region wants to allow large populations that is a luxury. That region should not bitch if they can’t feed themselves or have a decent standard of living. The regions over consuming must recognize this is unjust. A formula can help mitigate this argument. But please don’t tell me the Asians should consume like the Americans when they are 4BIL people in the size of a region smaller than Russia. The US is 300MIL. Asia is more than 10 times the size of the US and increasing their consumption in an earth shattering rate.

  31. Ian on Sat, 29th Nov 2014 1:25 pm 

    Just as robotics and technology will make most menial/low education jobs obsolete and even most white collar jobs too.

    The so called “manufacturing renaissance” in the US is accomplished by highly automated factories where one worker can now do the job of 10 a few years back.

    Same for financial firms, and companies like Google or FB hire only the best and brightest which represent a tiny % of the population.

    Where will 11 billion of mouths to feed fit in?

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