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Page added on January 20, 2020
OPEC, IEA or EIA Completely Wrong in 2020 Oil Market Analysis
Somebody big has got their analysis of the 2020 oil market flat wrong.
That’s the bottom line from a comparison of supply-and-demand forecasts provided by OPEC, the International Energy Agency in Paris, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in December to deepen output curbs until the end of March.
OPEC’s own research team sees that pact continuing to drain global stockpiles throughout 2020. By contrast, the IEA and EIA see inventory levels rising — even if the deal gets implemented in full. And even if were to be extended for the entirety of 2020.
The OPEC+ group agreed in December to lower their combined output target by a further 500,000 barrels a day, plus a voluntary additional reduction of 400,000 barrels a day from Saudi Arabia, which depends on everybody else meeting their targets.
OPEC’s latest forecast shows global oil inventories falling at an average rate of almost 100,000 barrels a day over the course of this year assuming the December deal is implemented as agreed and runs through March. That rate of draining could hit 300,000 a day if the measure were to last throughout 2020. Even if the group fails to implement the deal in full, with output remaining at its December level, OPEC’s numbers show there would still be a small decline in global inventories this year.
The IEA and the EIA both have very different, and less-bullish, outlooks. Both see stockpiles continuing to build, even if the agreed output cuts were to be implemented fully and extended for the whole year.
The same differences are apparent in the views of the three agencies on the effectiveness of the OPEC+ output cuts since they were introduced at the start of 2017.
OPEC’s supply-demand balances show that global oil stockpiles have fallen by 653 million barrels since the output cuts were introduced at the start of 2017, with draws in both 2017 and 2019 offsetting a small build in 2018.
Once again, though, data from the IEA and the EIA both imply that the output restrictions have done no more than limit the size of global stock builds since the start of 2017. After initial draws in 2017, stockpiles were replenished the following year and then remained essentially flat in 2019. The net result, according to the EIA, is an increase in global oil inventories of 100 million barrels between the start of 2017 and the end of 2019, while the IEA data show them rising by 142 million barrels.
So where is all this oil? Well, each agency will have slightly different things that it counts, different methods for counting and then, of course, their assessments can differ.
Divergences aside, OPEC and its allies remain resolved to press on with output cuts aimed at draining excess stockpiles, Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a Jan. 13 interview on Bloomberg television.
“Our endeavor in OPEC+ is to try to bring inventories to a certain level, where it is within the contours” of recent years, he said. That range should be around the average of the last five years and the period from 2010 to 2014, he said. That suggests that the group doesn’t have a precise target.
OPEC’s latest monthly report pegs OECD commercial oil stocks at 2.92 billion barrels at the end of November, a little higher than the 2.91 billion reported by the IEA. That puts inventories at between 8.9 million barrels (IEA) and 17.5 million (OPEC) above the average level for the last five years.
But there is one thing on which the IEA and OPEC do agree.
OECD commercial stockpiles are sufficient to cover 60.6 days of forward demand, 0.6 days below their latest five-year average. This is a much more useful measure of stockpiles than simple volume. And it would suggest that there’s agreement that OPEC has got inventory levels back to at least one of its measures of success. Now all it has to do is keep them there over the next two years as the high inventory levels of 2015 and 2016 drop out of the rolling five-year average.
231 Comments on "OPEC, IEA or EIA Completely Wrong in 2020 Oil Market Analysis"
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 8:05 am
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 4:32 am
“find it interesting that as US cities slowly islamify”
There you go joe with your American generalizations. It is certain cities that have Muslim strength. Detroit is one but look what they have done with some of Detr
i find it interesting in a perverted way that muzzie wrought so much devastation to european nations than they are in teh US. Perhaps the US prove a formidable target for muzzies. Poor european nations. I wouldn’t wish muzzies on anyone.
This is too creepy the way muzzies feast on a host nation. I’m creeped out even more after reading about taquia from supertard raymond ibrahim. I have to give it to china, they sensed muzzie danger that the european people just simply don’t.
9 days down to muzzie world bag day
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 9:29 am
France’s Macron Filmed Yelling at Israeli Security Guards in Jerusalem: Respect the Rules
https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-france-s-macron-filmed-yelling-at-israeli-security-guards-in-jerusalem-1.8435821?utm_source=Push_Notification&utm_medium=web_push&utm_campaign=General
Careful France!
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 9:57 am
i’m glad to see my little big brother joe supertard. everyday i revel at my decision to appoint him supertard. he proved to be a lifetime lerner ™. he abosrobed everything pertaining to muzzie doctrines.
i wish his new year still is muzzie free and a happy world muzzie bag day to come
Duncan Idaho on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 10:16 am
“Humanity and the earth is suffering from a worldview disease leading to a voracious self-destruction. It is a set of values or qualities, held with religious conviction that transforms all novelty into itself: economic growth, control over circumstances, progress, individualism, exploitation of nature, domination of strong over weak, and freedom-as-entitlement.
It is so pervasive it cannot be dislodged without tumbling the whole infrastructure of how individuals inside it survive. Indeed, individuals must adopt the worldview to survive. Turn life-ways into products for sale in the marketplace. Turn our lives into products to be sold for money to buy the products… and on and on.”
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 10:36 am
“US threatens trade war with Britain over digital tax for US tech giants: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warns of tariffs on UK car makers after Sajid Javid pledges to target Google and Facebook”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7916413/Donald-Trump-pressure-Boris-Johnson-drop-proposed-tax-tech-giants.html#comments
Donnie threatening again with his eternal sanctions.
Fascinating to read the Brexiteer readers comments under this article. The majority begins to get second thoughts.
Only the beginning of Bregret. In the EU, their largest trade partner by far, at least they were rule co-makers. Next month they will be rule takers, regardless from either the EU or the US, probably the US.
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 10:54 am
Finally somebody is standing up to the evil dim bitch!
Tulsi 2020!
“Tulsi Gabbard Sues Hillary Clinton Over ‘Russian Asset’ Remark”
https://tinyurl.com/sh49hpa zero hedge
“Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) has filed a lawsuit against Hillary Clinton, accusing the former Secretary of State of defamation for remarks characterizing the Democratic presidential candidate as a Russian asset. Filed on Wednesday in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Gabbard’s attorneys allege that Clinton “smeared” Gabbard’s “political and personal reputation,” according to The Hill. Tulsi Gabbard is suing Hillary Clinton and the first page of the filing is WILD AF pic.twitter.com/DXHLPfy016 — Alec Sears (@alec_sears) January 22, 2020 “Tulsi Gabbard is a loyal American civil servant who has also dedicated her life to protecting the safety of all Americans,” said Gabbard’s attorney Brian Dunne in a statement.”
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 11:09 am
“Careful France!”
Well mobby, it turns out that Macron isn’t that much of a Rothschild puppet after all, eh.
Or perhaps he was, but just like Donnie copied the behavior of Putin and gave the finger to his puppet masters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-russia-berezovsky/putin-foe-berezovsky-dead-circumstances-unexplained-idUSBRE92M09K20130323
“Putin foe Berezovsky dead, circumstances “unexplained””
The goys are getting rebellious.lol
This should already have made you think:
https://www.rt.com/news/387313-us-losing-leadership-eu-mogherini/
“‘US losing world leadership, Europe can replace it’ – EU top diplomat Mogherini”
Your co-tribalist higher-ups like Krugman have already smelled the coffee:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/
No worries, you still have empire dave standing by to take orders. All you need to do is threaten to call him a racist or better a natzi. Always works!
full woke supremacists muzzies jerk on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 11:13 am
Why is illuminati supertard still pushing gabbard. Nobody can beat whitey supertard trump.
This must be theater drama cover for more targeted roasting of muzzies
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 11:28 am
Professor warns China’s coronavirus could have same death rate as the Spanish flu pandemic that killed 50m
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chinas-coronavirus-has-the-same-death-rate-as-the-spanish-flu-pandemic-that-killed-50-m-people-151608803.html
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 12:12 pm
“Brexit: UK will lose market access if it ditches Brussels regulations, says EU chief Von der Leyen”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-uk-eu-boris-johnson-trade-sajid-javid-single-market-access-a9297111.html
The European market has the highest standards in the world. It is in fact the only truly first world area left. We don’t accept US chlorinated chickens or milk with puss. We won’t accept that from Britain either.
These rules do not exist to pester the Brits, they exist to guarantee high standards to European citizens.
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 12:26 pm
“The world’s largest offshore wind farm is nearly complete. It can power 1 million homes”
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/25/business/worlds-largest-wind-farm/index.html
Hornsea.
1.2 GW
In a couple of years 6 GW
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsea_Wind_Farm
Installer: Orsted-Denmark
Turbines: Siemens-Germany
Construction time: 12 months (!)
The next champ will be Borssele-Netherlands 1.5 GW in the coming 12 months.
The next champ after Borssele will be Hornsea-2 with 1.8 GW
The roll-out for the coming decades with be a continuous one with several GW per year per country.
The renewable energy transition has begun in earnest!
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 12:41 pm
“‘US losing world leadership, Europe can replace it’ – EU top diplomat Mogherini”
LOL, dream on cloggo, Europe lost it last century and now it is gone for good. No indication the the spineless committee called the EU can project power other than minimal soft power.
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 12:43 pm
“The European market has the highest standards in the world. It is in fact the only truly first world area left. We don’t accept US chlorinated chickens or milk with puss. We won’t accept that from Britain either.”
Europe has some of the most rigid markets in the world and the reason the EU economy is stagnated with very low growth.
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 12:45 pm
“The renewable energy transition has begun in earnest!”
The hardest part is just head, cloggo
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 1:03 pm
I’m so happy. Nothing in the world can bring me this much content. I don’t need an Italian wife to be happy. It would be better but not absolutely essential not when I spend many days looking forward to muzzies world bag day Feb 1st.
It’s a mandate from Allah and the penalty for disobedience is death. But it’s really a personal fashion choice
Head spun
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 1:06 pm
Even though I don’t score I don’t hate women
I hope they’re bag free forever
Duncan Idaho on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 1:48 pm
1993 — Kobo Abe dies in Tokyo, Japan, after a successful writing career that has seen most of his avant-garde works of bizarre & allegorical situations, such as Suna no onna (The Woman in the Dunes, 1963) & Hako otoko (The Boxman, 1973), translated into English.
The Woman in the Dunes was a classic..
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 2:32 pm
“Special relationship” latest!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-trump-trade-war-tech-tax-latest-a9297751.html
“Boris Johnson warns Trump both their countries will suffer if US starts trade war over tech tax”
Two buffoons already at each others throat. “Fantastic trade deal” coming up. Trump’s timing is awesome.
#BeerAndPopcorn
https://www.rt.com/uk/478890-digital-tax-us-trade-war/
“Trade war ignited? UK risks wrath of US after vowing to go ahead with digital tax on tech giants like Google and Facebook“
“Trump: “EU tougher to negotiate with than China, just ask Boris Johnson””
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 2:35 pm
“‘Respect the rules’: French President Macron snaps at Israeli police in Jerusalem (VIDEO)”
https://www.rt.com/news/478910-macron-confrontation-jerusalem-police-church/
Macron holocausts Israeli security.
What a guy!
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 3:45 pm
Canadian neo-Nazi recorded violent, racist videos before arrest, prosecutors allege
https://globalnews.ca/news/6443305/canadian-neo-nazi-videos-arrest-us/
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 4:08 pm
Far-right extremist who shot dead a German politician worked as campaign volunteer for Germany’s AfD during the 2018 Hesse election
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/22/suspect-murder-german-politician-afd-campaign-volunteer/
Cloggie on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 4:14 pm
Haha, KSA bozo fools Bezos and hacks his phone. Lots of sensitive data, like his infidelity.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/21/amazon-boss-jeff-bezoss-phone-hacked-by-saudi-crown-prince
Not nearly as smart as he thinks he is.
Now BBC News, the international jew Weinstein stumbling into court. Not exactly ruling the world.lol
DerHundistLos on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 5:24 pm
This study conducted by Columbia and NYU helps to explain Trump’s support among certain populations:
What explains the cult-like reverence of Trump ditto-heads and most members of the Republican party for Dear Leader Trump? We now have a working hypothesis. Researchers from Columbia and New York University examined voting patterns by geographic area with internet search term frequency. The study results pointed to a strong positive correlation between support for Trump and particular internet search topics. The results were shocking, although logical.
Fragile (Toxic) Masculinity Syndrome.
The following internet search terms had the strongest positive correlation with support for Trump:
“How to get girls”;
“Penis enlargement”;
“Penis size”;
“Erectile Dysfunction”;
“Hair Loss”;
“Steroids”;
“Testosterone”;
“Viagra”.
Trump ditto-heads lack the traits they perceive define masculinity. Therefore, they are innately attracted to a leader who projects these characteristics.
Examples of Trump’s alpha masculinity as perceived by Trump ditto-heads:
Trump uses a whig because he’s too proud to admit he’s bald.
Trump’s bullying behavior represents the actions of an alpha male.
Frequent golfer.
He eats McDonald’s almost every day.
He’s a billionaire with a hot wife who married him for his money.
full woke greata supremacist female jerk full bagged teaming up supremacist muzzies jerk foar the luz on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 6:15 pm
DerHundistLos on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 5:24 pm
supertard
the level of aggression is way up and this is not good, do you think?
makati1 on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 6:45 pm
Der, perhaps they also relate to his stupidity? After all, his attention span is about as long as an eye blink, reads nothing, knows nothing about the places he destroys,etc. Thinks only in $$$$ terms. Typical red neck Amerikan. Greedy and stupid.
Granted, the Blues are only marginally better.
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 6:54 pm
“China Quarantines City Of 11 Million As Hong Kong Confirms Second Case Of Coronavirus”
https://tinyurl.com/yx26rz6z zero hedge
“Chinese authorities have reportedly suspended all outbound air and train travel from the city, expanding on their edict that nobody leave, and nobody enter, the city in central China, which has a population of 11 million people, making it larger than New York City.”
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 6:58 pm
“I Don’t See Her In Beijing Or Delhi” – Niall Ferguson Slams Davos’ “Virtue Signaling” Greta Fanboys”
https://tinyurl.com/usgo2mk zero hedge
“However, as Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, explained during a brief (and uncomfortable) interview on CNBC, it’s all bullshit. “…remember there’s a cognitive dissonance at the heart of Davos.” “Publicly, you have to agree with Greta Thunberg and you have to be part of the virtue-signaling community on climate change, on ESG.” “Privately, you’re quietly agreeing with Trump.” For the ultra wealthy, Ferguson said Trump remains the obvious favorite if faced with a choice between Trump and Democratic front-runners Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. “The dirty little secret of Davos 2020 is they all need him to get re-elected,” told Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christophorus, when asked if wealthy attendees are begrudgingly rooting for President Donald Trump. “Nobody wants to say that out loud.” But the real point of note from Ferguson was his honest angst at Greta’s platform of lies. “The reality is that the Green Deal [and its massive debt load] will amount to a drag on German manufacturing and the eurozone economy as a whole.” “Privately, a lot of people are admitting that Trump is doing the stuff we should be doing – fiscal stimulus.” Simply put, Ferguson dares to say that all the virtue-signaling is not in any way candid, because if it were, they would admit that “60% of CO2 emissions since Greta Thunberg was born is attributable to China… but nobody talks about that. They talk as if its somehow Europeans and Americans who are going to fix this problem… which is frustrating because it doesn’t get to the heart of the matter.” Ferguson comfortably admits that there is a climate change problem, but that’s not the point. The point is what are we going to do about it, to which he asks rhetorically… “If you’re serious about slowing CO2 emissions and temperatures rising it has to be China and India that are constrained.” But Greta goes to New York or Davos: “I don’t see her in Beijing or Delhi.” Hard to argue with “facts” and “science” that this is true…”
Davy on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 7:19 pm
“Impeachment: GOP Stayed United, Schiff Put Lawmakers To Sleep, Dems Argue For Fishing Expedition”
https://tinyurl.com/qvdpbme sara carter
“Senator Marsha Blackburn pointed out after the impeachment proceedings a very crucial point. She said “first, the Democratic House impeachment managers told us the evidence against President Trump was ‘overwhelming.’ Right after, we heard there wasn’t enough evidence, and we would need to allow additional testimony in order to get it.” It is a point that needs to be made over and over again. Why should Democrats – who told the American public that they had overwhelming evidence to impeach in the House – be given the opportunity to continue their fishing expedition for crimes? No judge would accept this argument in any court. “House Democrats had ample opportunity to seek testimony from the witnesses they are now requesting, but they decided instead to rush through their unsubstantiated articles of impeachment,” Blackburn said. “The Democrats are entangled in an intellectually dishonest effort to force a constitutional challenge against executive privilege in the name of taking down President Trump at all costs. We don’t need more testimony – we need less abuse of the Constitution, less mania and zero impeachment do overs. President Trump, like any American, has the right to seek relief in the courts, and if Democrats will punish him for this right, they will do it to anyone. Enough is enough.”
makati1 on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 9:28 pm
“I Don’t See Her In Beijing Or Delhi”
Per capita pollutions is highest in the US. Twice that of China. Eight times that of India, per capita. Exceeded by only a few small countries like Palau. WIKI
DerHundistLos on Wed, 22nd Jan 2020 11:29 pm
“Ocean Apocalypse” presentation by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, United States Naval Academy
A compelling state of the Earth’s oceans presentation.
Nevertheless, it’s business as usual.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zMN3dTvrwY&t=1298s
Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 2:44 am
Paki-Brit Javid humiliated by US kosher Mnuchin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYAUWmhhgEI
The details:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7916413/Donald-Trump-pressure-Boris-Johnson-drop-proposed-tax-tech-giants.html#comments
“US threatens trade war with Britain over digital tax for US tech giants: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warns of tariffs on UK car makers after Sajid Javid pledges to target Google and Facebook”
The Brexit boob reader comments are revealing a certain unease with the development. Wasn’t Amurrica supposed to be our friend, together with whom we can exercise our favorite British past-time, namely bombing continental Europe?
Uh no. This is a Darwinian universe where larger animals eat smaller animals. Got it? You are the smaller animal now, just like you were already in 1939-1945, when the US sicked you in a war against Europe, only to gobble up that empire of yours when it was all over.
Now the US is going to have a feast with the juicy bones of the hapless Brits. Evil EU, eh? German empire, eh? “The Block”, eh?
The US is four times Germany. And in a club of 27, there is no way that Germany could really dominate anyone, not like the US is going to dominate the UK with a “tremendous trade deal”.lol
The truth is now sinking in with the Brexit boobs:
Pro-Anglo Clog standing by to rub it in:
Gaz, Maastricht, Netherlands, 16 hours ago
The yanks have you bent over a barrell with your pants down. Look forward to seeing have this plays out. I think it will put the rest of the EU off leaving , but only time will tell.
Pro: 56
Con: 11
Immanuel_Kant, Dortmund, Germany, 14 hours ago
So, the UK with its vast pool of experienced international trade negotiators (one) wants to start simultaneous negotiations with the EU and US, as well as an international agreement? I bet you both the EU/US can’t believe their luck in negotiating with a set of amateurs. The Americans have been biting their lips about this trade arrangement until Brexit is irreversible. The mask is just starting to fall. They are going to absolutely crucify the UK. Britons, don’t forget what Trump’s Commerce Secretary Ross said in Dec 2016: “It is a ‘God-given opportunity’ to steal business from the UK.”
Pro: 75
Con: 23
(I know the DM scene pretty well, Jerry Kant is NOT popular around here)
Ajm79, Oxford, United Kingdom, 17 hours ago
Welcome to the complexity of the real world my brexit supporting friends. There is no fair play in international politics and trade… and we have no serious leverage.
Pro: 100
Con: 14
PopthePup, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom, 16 hours ago
He’s always said America first. Why do you think he dislikes the EU so much. They actually stand up to him. Unfortunately we are losing their protection in just a few days.
Pro: 91
Con: 20
Immer Grunt, Dover, United Kingdom, 16 hours ago
Good job we’re still friends with the EU………Oh, wait!!…..
Pro: 53
Con: 16
username_in_use, Arsenal, United Kingdom, 16 hours ago
But but but the eu lol
Pro: 39
Con: 3
SunnSeeker, North UK, United Kingdom, 16 hours ago
Do not get into bed with the US when it comes to trade. They cant be trusted and will renege on a deal as and when it suits them.
Pro: 46
Con: 0
DougWhite, Alderney, 15 hours ago
Is it starting to dawn on you all now just what you have done?
Pro: 52
Con: 8
I bet that in 20 years time, the English will be the most dedicated Europeans of them all when it is all over.lol
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 2:52 am
Von der Leyen: EU must develop ‘credible military capabilities’
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-military-capabilities/
Sitting ducks. Just like the 1930’s. The euro trash never get tired of being our useful idiots.
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:16 am
How Auschwitz became centre of Nazi Holocaust
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50743973
We must never forget what they did to the innocent Jews!
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:18 am
We must never forget what Whitey did to the Indians in N America. And the Jews in Europe.
Whitey is pure evil and needs to be stomped out.
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:50 am
“Origin Of The Second World War”
“A.J.P. Taylor”
https://tinyurl.com/s2cpua3 google books
“From influential British historian A.J.P. Taylor, a reprint of his influential text The Origins of the Second World War. Controversial for his thesis that Hitler was an opportunist with no thorough plan, The Origins of the Second World War is an extensive exploration of the international politics and foreign policy that lead up to the one of the bloodiest conflicts of the 20th century. Published in 1961, The Origins of the Second World War is a classic of modern history. A.J.P. Taylor’s years of research helped change the long-accepted view that Adolf Hitler had wanted and planned in detail for a war. With clear and relatable prose, Taylor articularly depicts the diplomatic mistakes from both the Allied and Axis powers that lead to the outbreak of World War II. A groundbreaking work, The Origins of the Second World War “is an almost faultless masterpiece, perfectly proportioned, perfectly controlled” (The Observer).”
“After a brilliant introduction, in which he defines the balance of power and assesses the relative and changing strength of the Great Powers, Mr. Taylor presents a chronological survey, beginning with the diplomacy of war, 1914–1918. . . . [He] writes on two levels. He narrates the history of European diplomacy and compresses it admirably into a single volume. Imposed upon the narrative is his effort to probe the historical meaning of given actions and conditions. . . . He has a peculiar sense of inevitability, growing out of what he regards the logic of a given development, as well as a delicate feeling for live options and alternatives. Mr. Taylor suggests that fear, not aggression, was the dominant impulse of pre-war diplomacy.” The Origins of the Second World War (1961), again controversial and lively, starts from the premise (in Taylor’s words) that “the war of 1939, far from being premeditated, was a mistake, the result on both sides of diplomatic blunders.”
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:58 am
“Wahrheit Macht Frei… Truth Sets You Free”
https://tinyurl.com/u4qtank strategic culture
“The Russian perspective is substantially corroborated by Taylor (and other Western historians, see for example this recent essay by Michael Jabara Carley). The Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact on the eve of the war’s outbreak was a desperate attempt by Moscow to keep the Third Reich at bay. Because, as Taylor points out, the Western powers, in particular Britain and France and Poland, had consistently rebuffed Soviet appeals to form a collective European security pact against Nazi Germany. Britain, France and Poland looked the other way when Hitler annexed Austria in 1936 and invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938. The Fuhrer’s manifesto in ‘Mein Kampf’ and his various ranting speeches during the 1930s explicitly targeted the Soviet Union and European Jewry for annihilation in a Final Solution. Polish ministers during this period shared the Nazi contempt for Soviet and Jewish people. The case of Polish Ambassador in Berlin Josef Lipski proposing to Hitler in 1938 a scheme to deport European Jews to Africa is indisputable.”
REAL Green on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 4:50 am
“The 2-Child Policy Has Failed”: China’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low As Growth Slows”
https://tinyurl.com/wk7wyhy zero hedge
“China finally abandoned its controversial one-child policy in November 2013. But more than six years later, millions of Chinese couples are still unwilling to have a second child. And that’s a huge problem for the Communist Party, whose legitimacy in the eyes of the public depends on its ability to deliver on promises of unbridled growth and prosperity…official statistics agencies reported that China’s birth rate dropped to 1.05%, a record low. That’s equivalent to 10.5 births per thousand Chinese…official statistics agencies reported that China’s birth rate dropped to 1.05%, a record low. That’s equivalent to 10.5 births per thousand Chinese.”
REAL Green on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 4:51 am
One should call into question finance and economist urge to connect population decline with growth decline as bad. This questioning is warranted as if rapid growth has turned out to be good. That is a mixed story but on balance the question is no because an inhabitable planet is now in question. It is this disconnect that points to the surreal condition of the status quo. A status quo that is in denial of decline of a way of life, techno driven globalism, with no future. No time frame on this decline process needs to be applied because of the complexity of the systemness of it all but if you are honest with science then you see an obvious process. This is on all levels human and planetary. There is still robust productivity and amazing tech out there managing entropy but just barely. It is also this amazing stuff that has taken modern society to the edge of collapse from an overshoot of both consumption and population. This is both with behavior and the resulting tech.
Understanding these two forces of overshoot then one might ask if soft population decline is a better way to decline than a hard die off. This is especially true that a demographic decline with an older population and a younger one reproducing less is not a better way. Continued high growth and a desire to maintain high populations relative to carrying capacity is clearly in violation of limits to growth on a finite planet. Honest science shows us this but what is nuanced is the time frame and here is where economist and techno optimist can gang up to make their all-important point of growth.
One acknowledged problem is the bulge of older people who are driving policy don’t have the desire to change the high growth paradigm because it means sacrifices, they no longer are willing to shoulder. Rich older people the world over like the status quo of comfort but honest science says this is untenable. Planetary realities of general decline with localized environmental failures to growth and techno advancement point to this as does the human dimension of diminishing returns and the failures of complicated tech in an unstable complexity.
Another way forward is acknowledging growth is required systematically to prevent a collapse of a complex system but that since it must necessarily degrowth per planetary realities then a position should be a fighting retreat. In the case of the status quo situation of a carbon trapped path dependencies of techno advancement then the response should be managing inevitable degrowth through institutions and systems. What is happening instead is a battle against declining growth both competitively and cooperatively globally. This then becomes a path dependency with a carbon trap made steadily worse.
The reason is degrowth is initially a weakness that allows competitive growth pressures to overwhelm. So, the result is a struggle to compete which means resistance to needed change. Change then become a natural force applied without human directive. This becomes the turbulence of abandonment, dysfunction, and irrational policy. These forces of system chaos are inevitable either way but a proactive approach to this in a fighting retreat of growth with decline seems to be the only way forward if avoiding a dangerous cascade of decline is the desired outcome.
REAL Green’s approach is a fighting retreat will only occur once a crisis begins and then it is too late. The too late part is because the system will not be acclimated to the chaos of declining systemness. REAL Green says start your green prepping and your behavioral changes associated with acknowledgement of decline now or hold your breath in denial. Begin declining in place in a fighting retreat starting with yourself, your place, and your significant others. This is a fighting retreat so you live a hybrid surreal life of being in the status quo to leave it. If lucky your local will have developed a response to decline through shared effort. If not, you will still be better positioned for the inevitable decline ahead. Realgreenadaptation.blog
Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 5:28 am
Von der Leyen: EU must develop ‘credible military capabilities’
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-military-capabilities/
Sitting ducks. Just like the 1930’s. The euro trash never get tired of being our useful idiots.
In the thirties it was Germany against the rest of the world and Germany-USSR the core of the fighting, where Anglos merely bombed German children from safe altitude. Anglos are worthless as soldiers, their kiken owners know it:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?destination=%2farchive%2fopinions%2f1985%2f05%2f05%2ftheir-wehrmacht-was-better-than-our-army%2f0b2cfe73-68f4-4bc3-a62d-7626f6382dbd%2f%3f
“Their Wehrmacht was better”
Anybody can defeat Anglos.
Norway: 8000 Germans against 25,000 Brits and French, 1 month
France: hundreds of thousands against less Germans, 6 weeks
US-North-Vietnam.lol
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria.lol
Europe (Russia) defeated the US in Syria. That tastes like more, we smell blood!
640 million Europeans and 1300 million Chinese, nuclear armed to the teeth, will in the end finish off the Anglos. Boy do we Europeans have scores to settle with the only enemy we have: ZOG-USA
The beauty is: it is even for Americans too much to bomb their own allies.lol!
So we can build up an army under the excuse to strengthen NATO. Donnie wants us to! LOL
We must never forget what Whitey did to the Indians in N America. And the Jews in Europe.
Whitey is pure evil and needs to be stomped out.
But the real fun will start when your stupid white US goy cattle finally will understand that they are intentionally set up for destruction (subjugation rather or “stomped out”) by their kosher overclass. Expect them to revolt. Just like the Soviets did outside Warsaw, enjoying Germans and Poles going at each other throat in 1944, we Europeans and Chinese can enjoy a smokey while Dems and Reps do the same to each other, before we intervene and take the lot over.
Oh and mobster (and mousy), give your stupid white water carrier empire dave a good stomping, as you say you will, so we Europeans don’t have to do it. Nothing lost with this depressed, nihilistic, collapsenik POS.
P.S. we want the Heartland. 1776 was a mistake.
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 5:36 am
“Second Chinese city under coronavirus lockdown”
https://tinyurl.com/tcplx6h bbc
“Huanggang is the second city to have major restrictions placed on it as authorities try to halt the spread of the newly-discovered virus. With a population of more than seven million people, it’s a major population centre – London, for example, has about eight million residents. It’s situated about 70km from Wuhan, the first city to be put on lockdown. Reuters reports there have been 12 cases there up to the end of Monday. For residents of Huanggang, the bus and train networks will be closed at the end of Thursday, local time (five hours from now). Citizens have been asked not to leave by other means, either.”
Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 5:49 am
Oh dear, empire dave finally having a go at history, makes him look real intellectual, with quoting historians no less (not that he has any thoughts of himself)
From influential British historian A.J.P. Taylor, a reprint of his influential text The Origins of the Second World War. Controversial for his thesis that Hitler was an opportunist with no thorough plan
BS. Taylor was the only British historian who treated Hitler as the rational statesman that he was. He most certainly had a plan: Make Germany Great Again, retake all the German territories lost in Versailles and an alliance with Britain (the last was a big mistake, a permanent one in German thinking).
Finally they are coupled to a willing ally France and Russia will be added soon to the mix. The rise of China will ensure that.
A.J.P. Taylor’s years of research helped change the long-accepted view that Adolf Hitler had wanted and planned in detail for a war. With clear and relatable prose, Taylor articularly depicts the diplomatic mistakes from both the Allied and Axis powers that lead to the outbreak of World War II.
Taylor is fairly reasonable and honest, but in the end of the day he is a court historian too, very much unlike real historians like UK-David Irving or US-Mark Weber.
There were no real mistakes made. In the thirties the US has a gigantic economy of 29% global GDP, sufficient to plan for the American Century. All they needed was war in Europe and they could achieve that via Polish useful idiots, the jewish trojan horse Churchill and a closet alliance as of 1933 with Stalin.
The Fuhrer’s manifesto in ‘Mein Kampf’ and his various ranting speeches during the 1930s explicitly targeted the Soviet Union and European Jewry for annihilation in a Final Solution.
Complete BS. It is true that by 1925 he was openly (stupid mistake) dreaming of colonies in the East, since the rest of the world was already snatched away by the western Europeans, but after 1933, when Hitler rose to power, the whole issue of “Lebensraum” never surfaced again as the USSR consolidated after the civil war 1917-1922 and simply was too strong. In 1939 he did indeed threaten the jews with annihilation in Europe (=deporting) if they would force Germany into war, as international jewry did indeed. Don’t take it from me, take it from Chamberlain:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/chamberlain-and-the-forrestal-diaries/
Wannsee, Final Solution 1942 was just that: throwing the jews out of Europe, back to the Ukraine where these khazars (fake jews, Turks really) had come from, a century earlier. Because German troops now had conquered sufficient territory in the East to plant them there.
If you don’t throw people like I AM THE MOB out, they will throw you in the Soviet Gulag with their communism or in the upcoming American Gulag, where the new proletariate this time is of color, the whole purpose of decades of mass immigration from the third world, organized by the kosher over-class, inflicted on clueless American whitey.
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 5:58 am
“Anybody can defeat Anglos.”
The Americans have not been driven from the field in numbers in any previous wars since WWII except a fighting withdrawal in Korea. The cloggo loves to go back nearly a century to make his case for Eurotard greatness. The cloggo likes to talk about euro military renesannce but there is little to no indication of this. Euros still rely on NATO which is American dominated for force projection. He can’t stand this andconstantly abonishes it as if that will make it go away. This is a redundant daily effort that shows his obsessive failings.
“give your stupid white water carrier empire dave a good stomping, as you say you will, so we Europeans don’t have to do it. Nothing lost with this depressed, nihilistic, collapsenik POS.”
The cloggo can’t stand the reality of decline that is everywhere. He has daily redundant explanations for why this is not so. He discounts and dismisses bad news which in most cases is honest science. He sells snake oil with future tech achievements like autonomous vehicles and a vast 100% renewable eurotardland when both these efforts are stalling. Not to say there are not wonderful achievements in the Euro area but the fantasy Eurotard world of the cloggo is a different story. We then have the cloggo whine about empire but pushing his own dear to heart PBM fantasy. This PBM thingy has been pushed by the cloggo for years now and nothing has come of it. I repeat ‘NOTHING”. Finally, the cloggo trumpets techno optimism with energy saying laughingly “there is no energy problem” and climate change is manageable with continued growth and techno advancements. He offers zero time to those who rightly point out a world is in decline and in danger of collapse.
The cloggo is a fraud because all this is part of his agenda of a Greater Eurasia dominated by white euros along with his lesser human Slavs in the east. BTW, the cloggo talks disparagingly about these easterners except when he wants to include the Russian military in his PBM. LOL. The Anglo defragged cloggo then discusses the Chinese who will be arm’s length partners in ridding the world of the Anglosphere. He even talks about great armies crossing the Atlantic mopping up a white American remnants post CW2. Double lol. His derangement is snowballing lately because all his pet positions are in free fall except maybe offshore North Sea wind. The rest of his pet positions are nothing burgers he must inflate daily to keep them on the radar screen.
Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 6:00 am
“The Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact on the eve of the war’s outbreak was a desperate attempt by Moscow to keep the Third Reich at bay.”
Doesn’t make any sense. The opposite was true. Stalin was long in bed with Roosevelt and Churchill. The Non-Agression agreement came about on initiative of the Soviets. Not because out of fear (the USSR was separated from Germany by Poland!) but because Stalin wanted to divide Poland with Germany, so they would border Germany and prepare for the final Soviet assault against Germany and the rest of Europe in order to bring the blessings of communism to the shores of the Atlantic. Stalin knew that Hitler was eager to intervene in Poland and come to the aid of his beleaguered country-man, forced to live in Versailles Poland but couldn’t, as he was afraid of a two-front war. Stalin lured him into a trap, by suggesting that he had his eastern flank covered with this non-aggression treaty.
Germany fell into it, not that Germany had much choice as the Poles had began to persecute the Germans in large numbers, encouraged as they were by the British-French war guarantee, instigated by the f* Americans, who wanted nothing more than a war in Europe.
One month in the war, Churchill spoke the famous, totally misunderstood words in the Commons:
“Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”
It was true indeed, Russia was a riddle for EVERYBODY… EXCEPT for Churchill himself, because of as 1934 he was already in bed with the Soviets:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/churchill-stalin-alliance-as-of-1934/
Likewise, behind the back of Chamberlain, Churchill was also plotting for war with Roosevelt.
WW2, the greatest conspiracy in world history.
WW2, the victory of the jews over the white race, thanks to Anglo and Soviet lesser Gods.
The upcoming WW3-CW2 will roll everything back, including 1776. In this new decade you don’t want to be an Anglo and certainly not a jew.
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 6:08 am
“Oh dear, empire dave finally having a go at history, makes him look real intellectual, with quoting historians no less (not that he has any thoughts of himself)”
OH, dear, the cloggo is making his case that the Natzi were victims again. I made it clear I view WWII as a series of missteps on both sides and the ensuing mayhem crimes against humanity on both sides. Both sides acted opportune and with self-interests and when war came brutal. This is the nature of war when diplomacy fails for whatever reason coupled with a culmination of a fascination for techno killing in that century which started in the late 19th century American Civil War. In any case there are zero peer reviewed cloggo backed history revisions out there. Instead we are given obscure far-fetched cherry-picked history for cloggo referenced case studies. These are usually deranged Anglo or rabidly anti-Zog conspiracy sources. Move on please from the boring daily cloggo “I got my ass kicked twice” whine and I am going to make it right.
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 7:39 am
“China Quarantines 3rd City As Wuhan Virus Spreads To Singapore”
https://tinyurl.com/yx42bxhb zero hedge
“The horse is already out of the barn…” An English-language news website based across Asia just reported that Singapore has confirmed the first case of the Wuhan coronavirus…Update (0700ET): Beijing is reportedly planning to quarantine a third city in Hubei Province, where the coronavirus outbreak originated, while a fourth city in the province is planning to shut down train travel. Media reports claim that Chibi, a city with half a million Chinese, will be quarantined like Wuhan and Huanggang. Meanwhile, Ezhou, a city with 1 million people in Hubei, is seeing some transportation shut down. Meanwhile, officials in Beijing have joined several other Chinese cities in cancelling Chinese New Year celebrations.”
JuanP on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 8:56 am
Russia makes a killing from deal with OPEC.
https://www.rt.com/business/478962-opec-deal-russia-reserves/
full woke supremacist muzzies jerk on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 9:40 am
supertards
you gona let a grate opp gone to waste
the opp initiated with the crossing of the pacific by nixon (it is I) going to china in order to focus all wars against muzzies?
this situation reminds me of the years and decades before the crusades and the reconquista of spain. btw, all history on youtube about this period does not mention muzzies doctrines and muzzies in general. this is because higher ed in the west is funded by muzzies and documentatary are produced exclusively in muzzie lovin’ high anglais ™
count down to grate world muzzie hijab day 8 to go til feb 1st. do your to support supremacist muzzies by putting a shopping bag on when you go outside
thank you
Davy on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:03 pm
“The Real Umbrella Corp: Wuhan Ultra Biohazard Lab Was Studying “The World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens”
https://tinyurl.com/quo4awg zero hedge
“Now that not one but seven Chinese cities – including Wuhan, ground zero of the coronavirus epidemic – and collectively housing some 23 million people, are under quarantine…strongly hints, without evidence for now, that the coronavirus epidemic may well have been a weaponized virus which “accidentally” escaped the Wuhan biohazard facility.”
Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:16 pm
Key to the success of an airline: don’t own B737 Max
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/14/investing/delta-earnings/index.html
“One key to Delta’s success: It doesn’t fly Boeing’s 737 Max”
Expect competing airlines to notice and draw conclusions.
Cloggie on Thu, 23rd Jan 2020 3:24 pm
“Special relationship” latest:
*** Prince Charles snubs Mike ‘beautiful clean coal’ Pence (but not Putin and Netanyahoo!) *** LOL
Only a slap in the face would be a greater affront.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7921449/Prince-Charles-snubs-Vice-President-Mike-Pence-shaking-officials-hands-Israel.html
“Prince Charles snubs VP Mike Pence as he walks past his extended hand to warmly greet Netanyahu and Putin at Holocaust memorial event in Jerusalem”