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Page added on November 16, 2018
Oil Demand for Cars Is Already Falling
The International Energy Agency published its World Energy Outlook this week, its annual effort at revising assessments of future demand for and supply of fuels and electricity. 1 There’s a familiar theme within it: The IEA expects more renewable-energy use in the future than it did in last year’s outlook, which was more than it forecast in the 2016 outlook. There’s also something noteworthy on transportation: The IEA is calling the top on oil demand from cars.
According to the report:
Oil use for cars peaks in the mid-2020s, but petrochemicals, trucks, planes and ships still keep overall oil demand on a rising trend. Improvements in fuel efficiency in the conventional car fleet avoid three-times more in potential demand than the 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) displaced by 300 million electric cars on the road in 2040.
It’s noteworthy when a long-term projection calls the top on demand for something as fundamental as a component of global oil demand. But demand for oil consumed for transportation is already waning in certain markets and segments.
One place is in buses. Electric buses will displace about 233,000 barrels of oil demand a day by the end of the year. Add in the much smaller displacement from electric cars, and there’s 279,000 barrels a day displaced — about as much oil as Greece consumes per day.
Another is Europe. As Bloomberg Intelligence’s Rob Barnett notes, the latest figures from Germany show demand for diesel fell 9 percent in the first half of the year. The influence of Green Party lawmakers will dent demand further.
Then there’s Italy, where demand for gasoline has fallen by nearly half since 2005.
Even if electric vehicles make up a very small part of the current displacement of oil demand, that will certainly grow. Bloomberg NEF expects twice as many electric vehicles on the road as the IEA does, and those vehicles will displace more than twice as much oil demand as the IEA expects.
Automobiles are devices of culture and behavior, both of which can change quicker than a long-term energy-modeling exercise would suggest. You can see the latter in Tesla Model 3 sales in the U.S. this year: The Model 3 is now more popular than the entry-level luxury offerings of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz combined.
Cars are devices of regulation, too, and nowhere is regulation’s force more apparent than in China. Starting in January, all major domestic and foreign manufacturers operating in the country must meet minimum requirements for electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles. China is the world’s biggest auto market, and nudging its demand for electric vehicles even slightly higher could have significant impacts on oil demand. At the moment, most Chinese electric vehicles are confined to the domestic market and have “zero brand value outside of China,” per Macquarie Capital’s Janet Lewis. That probably won’t last forever, though, and if global buyers take to Chinese-made electric vehicles, it will mean more barrels of oil that aren’t needed for cars.
22 Comments on "Oil Demand for Cars Is Already Falling"
twocats on Fri, 16th Nov 2018 8:00 pm
… except that its NOT FALLING. the article says “Oil Use for cars peaks in the mid-2020s”
Nice use of the present tense to describe something that might happen in the future. can’t wait until these dipshits get sold into a Post Apocalyptic Mining Camp.
dave thompson on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 1:05 pm
When oil is refined it is broken into the different products. You get so much LP, jet fuel, gasoline,diesel and so on. Electric cars in a given place or region may mean less demand in those places. However, the gasoline will still be refined sold and burned in some other market. This means no net loss for the demand of gasoline.
Mark Ziegler on Sat, 17th Nov 2018 4:56 pm
Everyone would be far better off if they switched to a comprehensive rail road system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE4A0nPjyqQ
print baby print on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 1:59 am
we are swinging on our toes. Can you imagine if all those contries consume more and we are now at 100mbopd, the bigest ever. Something here has to give it up, we will see. Toilet paper -fiat curency- ghawar the bottomless pit or fusion is already here
Cloggie on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 9:22 am
Oil Demand for Cars Is Already Falling
This is what happens if you give too much gas:
https://www.geenstijl.nl/5144895/wtf-video/#comments
Please no jokes about women and driving.
https://twitter.com/SophiaFloersch/status/1064122586194485248
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 9:38 am
Trump doesn’t want the wall to stop Mexicans, he wants the wall as a monument to his presence on Earth. Long after he’s dead that wall will be there, and everyone will call it Trump’s Wall. Even after it’s proven to be completely ineffective at stopping illegal migration the wall will stand, because it will cost as much to tear it down as it will to just leave it in place. What Trump doesn’t, and can’t, understand is that it will come to symbolize folly and wasteful spending by the GOP, and will contribute to his memory being the laughingstock of human experience
https://i.imgur.com/fcOkdm8.gifv
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 9:51 am
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
There will be an oil shortage in the 2020’s, Goldman Sachs says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-shortage-in-the-2020s.html
Growing demand for oil will lead to shortage and high prices in 2020s
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2185046-growing-demand-for-oil-will-lead-to-shortage-and-high-prices-in-2020s/
German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
https://www.scribd.com/document/387459134/german
Imminent peak oil could burst US, global economic bubble – study
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth
I emailed Professor Douglas B Reynolds PhD, Oil and Energy Economics, University of Alaska.
http://uaf.edu/files/som/REYNOLDS-Doug-2016-CV.pdf
And I asked him if our upcoming oil shortage will cause a global economic collapse?
https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg
He replied;
“Yes, it will be like that, but may be worse with other extenuating circumstances such as war or the decline of international trade. Hyperinflation as happened in the Soviet and Post Soviet economy is a certainty.”
https://imgur.com/a/rktmHdt
Global oil shortage > Economic collapse > global societal collapse > Anarchy 2030
Cloggie on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 11:42 am
mob has yet to grasp the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle
“oil shortages” = high prices
It would be news if the coming wild price oscillations would be caused by depletion instead of the real cause: “underinvestment”.
As soon as oil will be again at €150 or so, investment will skyrocket as there is still an entire planet to frack:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/08/19/the-sudden-death-of-peak-oil-4-5-trillion-barrels-of-oil-left/
Davy on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 12:00 pm
“mob has yet to grasp the …”
All MOP grasps is his illusions of being an expert on anything. The guy claimed to be a chemistry PHD so obviously he is a fraud.
Davy on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 12:48 pm
IDENTITY THEFT
Davy on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 12:00 pm
Obviously I have no way of knowing if mob has a PHD or not.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 1:25 pm
Clogg
Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.
Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.
In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels
Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php
It doesn’t matter how much they invest because all of the worlds largest oil fields have already been found..And the technology they use now for exploration is amazing..They can use sonar and scan all the way to the earth’s inner crust..Even when oil was well over 100 dollars a barrel they couldn’t even discover enough to make up for annual consumption..
Sorry snowflake..Time to grow up and face the music..
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 18th Nov 2018 1:28 pm
We live in frightening times. It’s my belief that “you personally” will most likely die of starvation or conflict between 2020 to 2040.
You will experience a collapse of human civilization, a die-off of humans, a destruction of the ecosystem, a loss of access to mined and drilled resources, and a dark age from which your descendent’s will not reemerge.
Simple really..when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end… We’re talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order. The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close…(Meadows, 1972) (Motesharrei, 2014) (Turchin, 2010) (Ehrlich, 2013) (Turner, 2014) (Korowicz, 2012)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/
https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3574335/
https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf
Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 12:09 pm
Dave Thompson, total oil demand will be impacted noticably by EV’s of all types WHEN they take up a big enough chunk (say, 10% to 20%) of the marketplace. At closer to 1%, sure, the effect is small.
However, unless you’re innumerate, you should realize it’s not zero.
Between HEV’s (which are getting REALLY impressive in the newest generation for not all that much more money), PHEV’s and BEV’s, EV’s will make a larger and larger impact.
But it takes time. The greens who keep mindlessly claiming oil will be “obsolete” in “a few years” due to EV’s are just as wrong as those who deny EV’s have a real future.
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 12:47 pm
Outcast
Global oil demand will never peak for the simple reason that there will never be a post-oil era throughout the 21st century and probably far beyond. Even a wider usage of electric vehicles (EVs) into the global transport system will not change that outlook. However, it can decelerate the rate at which global oil demand is growing but will never replace oil as the major transport fuel nor lead to a peak oil demand.
The projection by the IEA that there could be some 300 million EVs on the roads by 2040 is just a myth. Still, let’s assume hypothetically that it is possible.
Global oil consumption has already hit 100 mbd in 2018 and is projected to reach 120 mbd by 2040.
Currently, electric and hybrid cars combined number under 2 million cars out of 1.477 billion internal combustion engines (ICEs) on the roads worldwide, or a negligible 0.14%. This is despite support by significant government subsidies. The total number of ICEs is projected to reach 2.79 bn by 2040 according to US Research.
Let us assume hypothetically that we might have some 300 million EVs on the roads by 2040. By that time the world will be using 43.8 billion barrels a year (bb) of which 75% or 32.85 bb will be used to power 2.790 billion ICEs around the world. Bringing 300 EVs on the roads will reduce the global oil demand by only 3.53 bb (9.57 mbd) or 8% to 100.43 mbd by 2040.
However, I hasten to add that even 300 million EVs by 2040 is an impossibility. The reason is that current manufacturing capacity of EVs amounts to only 500,000. So it will take many decades to manufacture 300 million EVs.
Moreover, there will be a need for trillions of dollars of investment to expand the global electricity generation capacity in order to accommodate the extra electricity needed to recharge 300 million EVs.
Last but not least is that projections and figures offered by the IEA and masqueraded as research have been discredited time and again.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
The $6 Trillion Barrier Holding Electric Cars Back
The cost of full adoption is astronomical. An estimated $6 trillion is theoretically needed to build the infrastructure that electric cars need such as charging stations and power networks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That’s about 7.5 percent to 8 percent of the world’s gross domestic product. Add to that the amount companies spend on making the cars and batteries, and the number could be even higher.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-04/electric-cars-face-a-6-trillion-barrier-to-widespread-adoption?srnd=opinion
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 12:48 pm
Outcast
I view EVs as inefficient natural gas powered cars, or worse. And the key problem is its lithium battery. See
http://www.epa.gov/…/lb…/final-li-ion-battery-lca-report.pdf
The cost of producing a large lithium battery is high and it is “perishable product”, which will not last even 10 years. The average life expectancy of a new EV battery at about five (Tesla) to eight years. Or about 1500 cycles (assuming daily partial recharge, which prolongs the life of the battery) before reaching 80% of its capacity rating.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-cycle-lifetime-of-lithium…
Battery performance and lifespan begins to suffer as soon as the temperature climbs above 86 degrees Fahrenheit. A temperature above 86 degrees F affects the battery pack performance instantly and often permanently.
https://phys.org/…/2013-04-life-lithium-ion-batteries-elect…
It is also became almost inoperative at below freezing point temperatures. For example it can’t be charged.
So they need to be cooled at summer and heated at winter. Storing such a car on the street is out of question. You need a garage. And only 1/3 of Americans have garages..
And large auto battery typically starts deteriorating after three years of daily use or 800 daily cycles.
Regular gas, and , especially, diesel cars can last 20 years, and larger trucks can last 30 years.
Recycling of lithium batteries is problematic
http://users.humboldt.edu/lpagano/project_pagano.html
In a way EVs can be called “subprime cars.” Or “California cars”, if you wish (California climate is perfect for this type of cars)
Switching to motorcycles for personal transportation can probably help more in oil economy aria then EVs.
I AM THE MOB on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 12:51 pm
Outcast
Considering you can’t take an EV out of the city..They are pretty much worthless to the majority of Americans..You science fiction faggot..EV has been around for over 100 years and never caught on because they are garbage compared to ICE vehicles..
Enjoy the oil shortage coming..Enjoy Marital law!
LMFAO!
Antius on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 1:11 pm
“Global oil demand will never peak for the simple reason that there will never be a post-oil era throughout the 21st century and probably far beyond.”
It will if people are too poor to afford the oil. Real prosperity per capita in the US is about 10% lower than it was in 2005. And oil costs more to produce now. Something is going to give at some point. It something cannot continue, then it won’t.
Antius on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 4:29 pm
The average life expectancy of a new EV battery at about five (Tesla) to eight years. Or about 1500 cycles (assuming daily partial recharge, which prolongs the life of the battery) before reaching 80% of its capacity rating.”
Energy stored on energy invested (ESOI) for a battery is proportional to the number of charge-discharge cycles it can endure. From wiki:
“As of 2017, LiFePO4 is a candidate for large-scale production of lithium-ion batteries such as electric vehicle applications due to its low cost, excellent safety, and high cycle durability. For example, Sony Fortelion batteries have retained 74% of their capacity after 8000 cycles with 100% discharge.[121] A carbon conductive agent is required to overcome its low electrical conductivity.[122]”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery
Reference 5 (in the wiki article) gives an ESOI of 32 for a battery with a lifetime of 6000 cycles.
Davy on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 5:26 pm
Here you go Antius:
“Exposing The ‘Regulatory Groupthink’ Of California’s Rooftop Solar Mandate”
https://tinyurl.com/y7bj8and
“California legislators have done a gimmick-trick that has earned the state loud applause from the environmentally-minded consumers and activists: California Energy Commission (CEC) recently voted 5-0 to add a new provision to the state’s building code. This includes a requirement that from 2020, all new house and multi-family residences construction of three stories or fewer, along with all major renovations, must be built with rooftop solar panels.”
“Rooftop solar is about as effective in reducing emissions as waving a broom into the smog. UC Berkeley’s Severin Borenstein argued this in his note to CEC Commissioner. Note: Borenstein also alleges that CEC has failed to involve experts in energy economics in its decision making process – something that is not a good policy formation practice UC Davis economics professor James Bushnell accused CEC of “regulatory groupthink”
“There is an opportunity cost involved in roof solar: California has a state-wide mandate to achieve 50% renewables generation by 2030. Putting more if this target onto roof solar is simply moving generation capacity from one source to the other. Because too top solar is roughly 4-6 times more expensive than industrially-produced renewables, the substitution involves a dramatic reduction in economics of scale. This will raise the overall cost to California of reaching its 2030 target. Another opportunity cost, this time much more tangible and immediate than 2030 targets is the problem of California grid ability to swallow all the solar generation being put into place. California has to routinely dump excess solar energy supplies during peak generation times, because it is failing to find buyers outside the state. Worse, given the scale of each roof top generation unit, solar electricity from the roof tops cannot be controlled by the grid companies, because smart inverters needed to do this are too expensive for small scale generators.”
Antius on Mon, 19th Nov 2018 5:43 pm
“Exposing The ‘Regulatory Groupthink’ Of California’s Rooftop Solar Mandate”
Too much weed, I reckon. This is what happens when liberal politicos are put in positions of power. Ideology ends up polluting decisions that should be all about science and economics.
Mark Ziegler on Wed, 21st Nov 2018 12:51 pm
According to BMI Research, the world’s vehicle sales will rise by 3.6% in 2018, up from an estimated 3.3% growth in 2017. Last year was a record-breaking year for global car sales. According to a report from Macquarie Bank, 88.1 million cars and light vehicles were sold in 2016, up 4.8% from a year earlier.Dec 28, 2017
Norm Erickson on Thu, 22nd Nov 2018 11:33 pm
Since when will oil discoveries/production be able to grow endlessly because of demand growth? Conservative groupthink magic??