This article is part of a “Reporter’s Notebook” series, wherein CNBC journalists submit tales and observations from the field.
The world as we know it, will be no longer. The balance of power on a global scale will shift. All in the next decade.
Sounds dramatic right? But independent think tank RethinkX believes it to be true, because of rapid advances in technology, and specifically the advent of self-drive or autonomous cars.
First and foremost, RethinkX co-founder and Stanford University economist and professor Tony Seba told CNBC’s Street Signs that the rise of self-drive cars will see oil demand plummet, the price of oil drop to $25 a barrel, and oil producers left without the political or financial capital they have today.
“Oil demand will peak 2021-2020 and will go down 100 million barrels, to 70 million barrels within 10 years. And what that means, the new equilibrium price is going to be $25, and if you produce oil and you can’t compete at $25, essentially you are holding stranded assets,” Seba said.
“At $25 a barrel, that means deep-water, sands, shell oil, fields, most are going to be stranded, and also all the refineries and pipelines associated with these expensive oils are also going to be stranded. And that is going to reshape worldwide oil, geopolitics and so on.”
It’s a big call, right? But if you look at what’s behind Seba’s premise, surprise, surprise, it comes down to money.
He says we are not going to stop driving altogether, just switch to self-drive electric vehicles, which will become a much larger part of the sharing economy. And these electric vehicles are going to cost less to both buy and run.
“The day that autonomous vehicles are approved, the combination of ride hailing, electric and autonomous means that it’s going to be ten times cheaper, up to ten times cheaper, to use a robot taxi, transport as a service car, than it is to own a car. Ten times.”
Investment case
Interestingly enough, if you believe this thesis, you may want to look at selling out of any exposure you have to car parks. “In fact what is going to happen, in 80 per cent or maybe more, parking spaces are going to be vacant. Because we are going to have, fewer cars on the road” Seba says.
And given that $25 forecast for oil, you certainly want to look at selling oil, and expensive oil producers. Oh, and sell the car makers that are slow to adapt too, given there will be no more petrol or diesel cars, buses and trucks sold anywhere in the world within 8 years. Which also means no more car dealers by 2024.
And wait, you can sell insurers too, as the cost of car insurance will drop dramatically when you take human error out of the equation, and a much lower direct ownership of vehicles in general.
But, according to Seba, it is time to look at buying into anything that will help to produce and manufacture the next generation of cars, which are “computers on wheels.”
He says to look at companies that make the operating system, the computer platform, the batteries, mapping software, and those that adapt to the new environment.
“Imagine a Starbucks on wheels. Essentially transportation is going to be so cheap, it’s going to be essentially cheaper for Starbucks to run around and take me to work, which is, you know, 60 kilometers away, and give that transportation for free, in exchange for going to buy coffee in that hour of commute.”
There is some good news for economic growth too. The savings households make on cars, will drive higher consumer spending in the U.S., which in turn will drive business and job growth. Seba forecasts that productivity gains will boost GDP by an additional $1 trillion.
But on the other hand, outstanding auto loan debt in the U.S. stands at more than $1 trillion. And there are those who see the U.S. subprime-auto market as a big problem already.
Josh Jalinski, president of Jalinski Advisory Group told CNBC’s Street Signs that it’s a huge risk. “We have a potential auto subprime crisis looming in America, the likes we haven’t seen since 2008. … I see the car subprime loan debacle as something that could be the catalyst of upending the Trump train.”
Oil and cars
Seba is not alone in his predictions, although others believe the shift will take longer, and will not be so dramatic.
China and India are accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles. China wants to get electric, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars to account for 20 per cent of all auto sales by 2025, while India aims to electrify all vehicles in the country by 2032.
But as always with any thesis, there are those who argue for the other side. Oil majors are the obvious ones, with recent reports from both ExxonMobil and BP‘s suggesting electric cars will comprise less than 10 per cent of the global car fleet by 2035.
As for the auto industry itself, in the latest moves, Ford announced a new CEO, James Hackett, the head of its self-driving subsidiary Ford Smart Mobility LLC. That moves speaks for itself.
Also Monday, Toyota Research Institute ramped up their investment, teaming up with MIT Media lab and five other companies to explore blockchain technology for the development of driverless cars.
And of course, there is the market interest in Tesla. The Elon Musk-backed electric automaker now has a bigger market cap than both Ford and GM.
Trip Chowdhry, managing director and senior analyst at Global Equities Research, points out that while some people think Tesla is an Auto company, it is not.
“It is a cloud computing company, it’s a machine and an artificial intelligence company, it is an app company, it is an energy company, and just an automobile is nothing more than a laptop on four wheels.”
One point that is agreed, is that the auto industry will look vastly different in the future. The question is, just how long will that change take, and who is going to successfully adapt.
DerHundistlos on Wed, 24th May 2017 5:17 pm
Since my response to Theedrich was buried in a previous post, I am restating for the record.
Theedrich’s latest assault against the Democratic party involves a fantasy conspiracy surrounding the death of a DNC staffer. Naturally, Fox Noise was beating the conspiracy drums as well—that is until yesterday. With egg all over its face, “fair and balanced” Fox was forced to officially retract its conspiracy story on the 2016 murder of Democratic National Committee staffer Seth Rich. Fox said in its press release, “the Seth Rich story was not initially subjected to the high degree of editorial scrutiny we require for all our reporting. Upon appropriate review, the article was found not to meet those standards and has since been removed.”
I understand your desperation for evidence to support your meme that Democrats are just as bad. Just one problem…while wrong doing is accepted strategy in the Republican party, the type of person who identifies as a Democrat does not think the same and is thus not subject to the same proclivities for malfeasance.
Jef on Wed, 24th May 2017 6:03 pm
Nearly thirty years of industrial design/product development one of my jobs was to asses the potential for a proposed new product. My first efforts went to answering the question, what and how big is the the problem that the device, service, product is solving for?
For the life of me I don’t understand driverless cars. There is absolutely no problem that they solve and in fact it will create huge problems in dozens of industries, through out the economy.
I put them up there with jet-packs, Star Trek like replicators making our food, and energy too cheap to meter.
Davy on Wed, 24th May 2017 6:31 pm
“the Seth Rich story was not initially subjected to the high degree of editorial scrutiny we require for all our reporting. Upon appropriate review, the article was found not to meet those standards and has since been removed.”
Der Hund, you are telling me the same issues are not present with the MSM against Trump? I don’t like democrats or republicans. What I really don’t like is double standards and that is what I am seeing in the MSM today. This Seth story has wings and it is going to haunt the democrats. I see a big scandal and cover-up brewing.
Anonymouse on Wed, 24th May 2017 6:32 pm
Exactly jef, driver less cars dont full-fill any societal need. The only ‘need’ they fulfill, is to artificially create ‘demand’ for a whole new range of expensive products and related ancillary industries. Mmm, wonder would benefit from that? [Spoiler alert: Not you and me, or society for that matter]
The fact that this ‘new’ model of getting around, does everything the ‘old’ one does now, that it does not work or exist, is not technically feasible, would cost huge amounts of money and resources to essentially duplicate what cars and mass-transit do now, and wont provide any of the many benefits its proponents endlessly claim, is beside the point.
Its the next ‘big’ thing, and thats all that really matters to robo-car evangelists. You just have to ‘beleive'(tm), robo-cars will work as advertised (or better), deliver endless benefits and bounty, and solve all the worlds problems, including all the problems created by human driven cars, history.
Just gotta (B)elieve is all…
Davy on Wed, 24th May 2017 7:16 pm
Der hund, here is some more dirt that is hard to dismiss.
“Caught On Tape: Wasserman Schultz Threatens Police Chief For Investigating Her IT Staff’s Crimes”
http://tinyurl.com/k4xq67w
dissident on Wed, 24th May 2017 7:18 pm
The concept of a sustained $25 price for declining resource is utter nonsense. All it will do is to inflate the demand and deplete the resource faster. I know that many idiots think that oil is fungible, but reality is clearly not in accordance with this.
In fact, a low oil price makes transition to other energy sources and technology more difficult.
Davy on Wed, 24th May 2017 7:21 pm
Another reason EV’s and AV’s are dead on arrival as a transformational technology. A large segment of the population is slowly going broke.
“$100 Increase In Monthly Mortgage Payment Would Sink 75% Of Canadian Homeowners”
http://tinyurl.com/mr7aa4f
“According to a new survey from Manulife Bank, nearly 75% of Canadian homeowners would have difficulty paying their mortgage every month if their payments increased by as little as 10%. And, given that the average house in Canada costs roughly $200,000 and carries a monthly mortgage payment of $1,000, that means that most Canadians couldn’t incur and $100 hike in their monthly mortgage payments without possibly going under.”
dissident on Wed, 24th May 2017 7:24 pm
So the clown who believes the unsubstantiated tin foil hat drivel about 2 million German women being raped without any associated realistic murders (in the hundreds of thousands range) believes that Seth Rich’s murder is a “conspiracy theory”. How does the DNC insider with whom Seth Rich had a conflict end up meddling in his murder investigation? The PI hired by the family has exposed this brazen meddling by a person of interest in the murder. That there is meddling in the Seth Rich murder case is clear from the fact that the DC police department involved never requested to see the security camera footage from the bar where Seth Rich was seen alive. Yet they have the time to try to frighten off the PI.
Ken Hikaru on Wed, 24th May 2017 8:07 pm
Note to above commenters: driverless cars fulfill a vast societal need, the need to transport people efficiently! This huge energy/money savings is the reason they will be widely used as soon as they are available, the same reason Uber and Lyft became so widespread so quickly.
Davy on Wed, 24th May 2017 8:38 pm
Ooh, dumbass is upset. Dissident you don’t smell anything stinky? LoL, a one track mine operates that way. You are very predictable.
Numbersman on Wed, 24th May 2017 8:47 pm
Ken Hikaru, i’m with you. Transportation as a service is coming precisely because its cheaper than owning. Think about it, doomers: A car that generates income is far more affordable than one that doesnt. Plus, amortizing the cost over a million miles (like a road tractor) rather than 100k (like a personal vehicle) an obvious gain. Not to mention that we have a massive problem of texting drivers causing crashes. Anyone with commin sense can see this all around – no need to even google it.
Im a software engineer, working in the field of computer vision and robotics, and until very recently i poohpooed the practicality of the technology. But i can now see it is definitely coming. Machine learning and AI are surpassing my wildest expectations. And the societal demand will wash over the downsides of a few failures. Sure, there will be crashes, but far fewer. Plus, you can text, read, sleep, or have a cocktail while travelling. Those are 4 core needs yearning to be met, and at a lower cost per mile!
Plus, The sex appeal of buying a $14k Kia just isnt there like it was back in the day of a Chevy Camaro, Ford mustang, or Jeep. The move toward utilitarian and away from fashionable / emotive will also drive this transition.
And finally, not to mention the tremendous effeciency gains of electrification. The fleet of electric cars is the ultra-capacitor to soak up all of that solar generated power during daylight hours. You can probably sell it back at night for twice what you paid for it in the day (or defer your expensive power consumption at night).
Did i say finally? Im sorry, there’s more. The electric utilities are dying and need a savior. Led bulbs, high efficiency homes, falling incomes and all of that. Enter quiet, smooth, electrified transportation stage left, exit oily explodermobiles with diminishing and damaging fuel supply stage right.
Ignore at peril of ignorance, fellow doomers.
Davy on Wed, 24th May 2017 8:48 pm
Dream on Ken, same old worn out techno optimism. At some point exotic tech fails a variety of requirements for success. Just becuase it can be done does not mean a critical mass of achievements are met. AV is unproven and a long way from acceptance. It is unneeded except as just another stimulation for those reaching for the stars with an earth dying under our feet.
Numbersman on Wed, 24th May 2017 9:04 pm
Davy, you are so articulate – I love reading what you write! But you need to rethink on this item. It could even delay our social “Big One” as Fred Sanford used to say. I know you love to doom, as so do I. But I actually got harmed far worse by my preps and actions leading into the obviously approaching 2008 crash, far more than my friends with blind faith in “The System” I bought land and which fell by 50 to 75 percent, while my friends who held company shares are at all time highs. Of course its a Ponzi ! I know that! And i love my land and dont regret it. In fact i appreciate the process of losing money and helping me adapt into becoming a slightly less greedy person. But i just want to encourage you and the other fellow doomers here to not be too sure of the timelines. I think its very likely we have some more waves of techno-vation coming our way, supplemented with long term financial alchemy that will get us by, albeit with winners and losers. The ability to print endless amounts of money, track all electronic communication, and get essentially unlimited power from the sun is inertia beyond belief for some form of our social system and order to persist long into the future. Folks will move away from the high water, farming can easily rebecome the occupation of the masses; in fact that is another solution the the problem of idleness that has afflicted many.
Numbersman on Wed, 24th May 2017 9:10 pm
Davy, was the car “worn out techno optimism” ? Personal computers ? Cell phones? Fake boobs? (Well maybe) The internet ? No, the latter revolutionized (and is troubling) society perhaps more than even the printing press. We havnt yet come to grips with it. It will usher out industries and mores (religion as we knew it) and bring in essentially better forms of similar things. Yes, our world will crash, but it will most likely do it like a forest that experiences a transformative fire. New stuff will grow in the richness of the ashes remaining.
rockman on Wed, 24th May 2017 9:50 pm
“Transportation as a service is coming precisely because its cheaper than owning”. You mean like for years when it was cheaper to car pool and take public transportation then owning your own car? A simple question: do you know one person that owns a car because it is their least expensive option? If the vast majority of those who can afford vehicle ownership chose to buy their most expensive transportation option why would one expect a significant change in that choice? About 86 million new vehicles were bought last year despite the fact it was likely the more expensive option for the vast majority.
Folks don’t buy 19″ TV’s instead of 60″ models because they are cheaper. It’s because it’s only what the vast majority can afford.
Simon on Thu, 25th May 2017 12:55 am
I think we should look at driverless cars as yet another step back in time (sounds crazy .. but stay with me)
Right now, I know loads of people who take public transport to work (me included) 15 years ago, unthinkable, we are now (like loads) a 1 car family, I see thousands on there bikes, this feels more like the late 1950’sto 1960’s. Driverless cars are just a way of people not being able to afford cars themselves, essentialy taxis, so maybe another step back in time flashier though)
interesting theory anyway
Numbersman on Thu, 25th May 2017 3:35 am
Good point, Rockman. A lot of cars will continue to be sold for a long time to come. That doesnt change my perspective that the following trends will expand greatly, and overtime reshape the automotive landscape:
1. Advanced cruise control will only get better. My car today handles speed control, plus camera based steering and braking in hazardous situations. It will get better and better,with a theshold coming at automated highway driving. Then self driving will be obvious to all, and begin migrating to smaller roads, in large cities first. Expect to pay a premium for the feature.
2. Electric cars will grow dramatically as a percentage of our fleet. They are cheaper to operate, but can still be a hot rod. (See Tesla marketing genius “insane mode”)
3. More and more miles will be ridden in service cars, like Uber and Lyft. I use it now like a cheaper and better Taxi it is. I would absolutely use it everday if it picked me up and delivered me to work for under .25 per mile and with less than 5 min waiting time. That is Nirvana. I can park my “fun car” with my boat and jet skis, and i will take personal, convenient, cheap transportation more and more. When this becomes driverless, and the cost falls in half per mile, watch out above and below. To think this isnt coming because good AI is hard to grasp is crazy. To the kids who are accustomed to facebook recognizing all of their friends in their pictures, the tech isnt even surprising anymore.
Numbersman on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:04 am
Look at the changes to Movie and music distribution: Its now rental on demand. Lots of dead careers and factories on the way to that.
The PC has basically died for the home user. A few hanging around, but the rec time is now on phones and tablets for the masses. PCs are for working.
CRTs died a violent and fast death with the advent of flat screens, even though the first flat screens were expensive and had bad pictures.
Consumer cameras exploded onto the scene and now are dead as a doornail, melded into phones. The iphone 7+ now takes better pictures than my $1000 prosumer camera.
Cloggie on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:37 am
Meaning TAAS (Dutch):
http://www.encyclo.nl/begrip/TAAS
1) Penis
2) Soort nagel
3) Spijker met bolle kop
4) Soort spijker
Cloggie on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:41 am
The Philippines with a wind potential of 76 GW and an actual electricity production of 20 GW, doesn’t really need oil/fas/coal and can perfectly generate its own electricity.
Here the largest wind farm to date located at the northern tip of the Ps (Burgos, Luzon):
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/25/construction-of-the-largest-wind-farm-in-the-philippines/
deadlykillerbeaz on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:43 am
If oil is going to be 25 dollars per barrel, I am going to have two cars. One self-driving car and another that I can drive myself so I can go where I want down a country road, maybe stop at the river and do some fishing. It’ll be an old pickup truck.
Rivers of self-driving cars on the road would make me nervous, I’ll take the back roads and drive myself. Can’t be too careful with self-driving cars running around all over the place ready to be hacked. There will always be the vandal that will buy fifty pounds of sixteen penny nails and dump them on the highway, then sit back and watch the fun begin.
Of course, I will have a self-fishing rod and reel so I catch something, otherwise, I will never catch a thing, not even a bullhead. lol
I’ll send the self-driving car to the grocery store to pick up the groceries I ordered online and I can stay home to watch some online tv, cable tv is dead too, ya know.
The self-driving car will be back in no time, park itself in the garage, then I can save steps and time avoiding a trip to the Safeway.
Priorities.
Davy on Thu, 25th May 2017 5:15 am
Very good points numbersman and points I can relate to. I too took a hit in 08 because of my preps. Yet, the whole process since 00 when I started this lifestyle downsizing has been positive for me but I imagine there are some that have not fared so well. Life is a gamble and so is the doom lifestyle since it is embracing change. I have often said changing your lifestyle for a cause is dangerous and disruptive so one should proceed slowly with doom and prep. For some it is best just to do the basics and get acclimated to the attitudes and understanding of decline. This is hard to do because once you get into it is hard to stop. Some lose interest very quickly because it is a difficult way.
I am making it a way of life so it is different than one who is more status quo and wants only insurance to survive a shock. Some understand doom but want to live status quo. I want to leave the status quo. The alternative lifestyle appeals to me. I like spartan and undeveloped. It has always been my nature. I am living a permaculture lifestyle and attempting to go postmodern. Postmodern for me is really a premodern/modern mix. The reason it is a mix is that ecosystem that was there premodern is no more. We cannot totally exit modernism and think we can survive like humans used to. This means salvage, cannibalization, and tinkering with the old and new in a blend. I want to do this before there is a rush to do the same. I feel this paradigm shift ahead like a Native American feels a battle approaching but I may be delusional. I hope I am because some of my visions are horrible and painful. Collapse is 90 percent pain and 10% heroics in pain. This makes me narrow minded and critical of techno optimism because of my lifestyle.
I see the world coming apart because of tech. I am using it to leave it. The problem with that is you experience hypocrisy and the surreal. I really can’t leave modernism because that is “the” way life. My family and my life economics are modern because I have no choice. I love some tech like the internet. I like great made technical clothing, tools, and material for adapting to the environment. I personally think we have to chip away at that connection as best we can. As one who preaches doom and prep this makes me also extreme. This board is a place of debate and competition and that too causes extremes of position. I don’t like extremism but I delve in it because that is what happens in war and we war here on this board.
My biggest problem with techno optimism is I feel it is killing the earth. When you live and work with nature daily you have a different feeling about techno living. Some live in the middle of techno. Anyone in a city is right in the middle of complexity and technology. I walk 100 yards and it declines rapidly. I look out my window and see prairie grass and wildflowers. Techno optimist sees fancy human things. I see beautiful natural things. This is adaptive process so once you distance the modern attitudes realign.
Techno optimism is a great feeling. The new stuff appears techno green and clean. It looks and feels so affluent and comfortable. The efficiency and productivity is inviting. There is nothing like the satisfaction of doing more with less. I tell myself this is the bait that lures us into the trap. I do this to keep my distance. Maybe I am completely deceive old man living on a hardscabble goat/cattle farm ranting about an alternative living. In that case I am just a funny to many because I am not hurting anyone. In fact I freed up some resources for some others to use.
makati1 on Thu, 25th May 2017 5:22 am
Cloggie, wind energy is growing here, as is solar, hydro and geothermal. There is the potential, as you show, for the Ps to be totally ‘renewable’ in electric. Given enough time, I expect it to happen. The question is … how much time.
Richard on Thu, 25th May 2017 9:36 am
A very interesting and exciting future on the one hand. But does read a little too rapid in adoption. I think its more incremental, but certainly not impossible.
Kenz300 on Thu, 25th May 2017 9:40 am
Fossil fuels are dead money. Divest.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 25th May 2017 10:25 am
Davy, as far as the Dems being as bad as the Repubs, when you live in a pigsty everybody gets dirty. The Dens have to chase corporate lucre just as much as the Repubs in a system of 24/7 campaign donation chasing. You won’t get a reformist elected from either side in the present configuration, (see Trump political evolution.) Also returning to the article, I see climate destabilization as perhaps the greatest sales pitch for EVs. Except what good are they with all the bridges washed out?
bobinget on Thu, 25th May 2017 3:07 pm
Just the other day I realized my e’Golf I love so dearly is nothing more than a luxury “Mobility Cart”.
Luxury, because my friends with the three wheeled
electrics don’t have heat or air conditioning, four big wheels and air-bags.
I’m 82, and have owned VW’s or Porches since 1955. In a few more years I hope VW comes up with a self driving auto for obvious reasons.
Losing my personal transportation would be a huge blow.
Numbersman on Thu, 25th May 2017 3:13 pm
50% of us are likely to be right on whether the price of oil will be higher or lower on a specified future date. If you can be consistently better than 50 percent at that game, you can make a lot of money.
Davy, you speak honestly about the conflicts you face of trying to leave technology but also using the parts of it you like.
You might be surprised that the rest of us, even living in the city, aren’t that different. I love survival camping (would even like survival living I think). More city folks that you realize are energized by nature and outdoors. Heck, pop culture is turning woodgrain and organic, if you haven’t noticed.
Here is my own struggle as I ask myself which side of the divide do I fall on? Am I an environmentalist or an industrialist? I definitely love to be in trees, climbing, hunting, or building tree houses. But am I a “tree hugger”? Honestly, I’m not sure.
The debate on climate change / global warming seems false to me. The debate about whether it is human caused or not seems to be a waste of time. Duh, we are unloading massive amounts of carbon that were sequestered for millions of years. But also doing similar things with other chemicals, and people as well.
The real question to me is this: How do we prioritize the damage to the people vs damage to earth? There are extreme opinions on both sides, and I personally can say its a false question because I think life would be better living on 100 watts per day and working draft animals. But not everyone feels that way and from their perspective, it makes sense. So, tough question for me.
I find stream of conciousness helps, string words together then seeing if there is some meaning, like this:
Stranger Getting Stranger
It’s stranger getting stranger
unfolding as we’re olding
the fates behind the gates
are pleated and defeated
rubber breasted and crested
poser infested
It’s stranger getting stranger
There’s anger begetting anger
boiling over bend over
Alchemy was the enemy
fool’s gold made us old
Toads on yellow brick roads
where honey once flowed
There’s anger begetting anger
ten sixes times seven
wont fix us or leaven
the bread we have baked
the lives we have faked
the matches we’ve made
wont strike on brocade
Not even in heaven
ten sixes times seven
Its hot and getting hotter
Some say not, why bother
While edges curl in baking sun
Pledges swirl, the banks are done
Its stranger getting stranger
There’s anger begetting anger
Six Sevens times the top ten
Can’t save us from our sin
Davy on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:04 pm
Sis, they are both dirty and disgraceful in their own idiosyncratic ways. I just don’t understand the double standards. The ends does not justify the means. There is a lot of defense of the dems here and they shouldn’t be. The party is a complete disgrace. The Repubs are worse but the issue here is double standards and false righteousness not who is worse.
Davy on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:09 pm
Good points again numbers man. I am working in the fields currently. I will think about your question and get back to you tonight.
bobinget on Thu, 25th May 2017 4:35 pm
Catherine NgaiVerified account
@catkngai
25-May-2017 SYNCRUDE CANADA TO CUT MAY SYNTHETIC SHIPMENTS BY 100,000 BARRELS AND JUNE SHIPMENTS BY 1 MILLION BARRELS – SOURCES (30)
Well, so much for $25 crude, for now.
Davy on Thu, 25th May 2017 8:07 pm
“The real question to me is this: How do we prioritize the damage to the people vs damage to earth?”
Numbersman, I think time frame is the key here and we need honest science to tell us. If time is short then people need to be prioritized with hospices and lifeboats. On the other hand if we have decades before the worst then we need to prioritize the earth. If techno optimism is right and there will be a transition without collapse then again it is the earth we need to prioritize because it will be the earth that supports us only if we take care of it. If a habitable earth is soon to be gone then we need to take care of people and their suffering and forget about being green when being green might mean people dying. Why be green if the earth is not going to support life anyway.
rockman on Thu, 25th May 2017 8:39 pm
Numbersman – “Electric cars will grow dramatically as a percentage of our fleet.” Quit probably. But if the total number new ICE’s continues to exceed 70 million per year as it has for the last several years even if the % of the new rolling is EV we’re still adding a huge number of CO2 emitting and hydrocarbon burning vehicles. Adding so many more ICE’s to the existing 1.2 billion IS NOT an improving situation.
Likewise the Chinese may buy an increasing number of EV’s in the future. But:
“According to a report from Macquarie Bank, 88.1 million million cars and light commercial vehicles were sold worldwide in 2016, up 4.8% from a year earlier. That was the fastest annual rate of growth since 2013.
Unsurprisingly, the strong global growth was fueled by one of the largest and fastest growing economies in the world right now: China.
In terms of which markets supplied that increase, there is one clear stand-out: China, which gained 13% and saw an additional 3.2 million vehicles sold,” Macquarie said, noting that sales were partially assisted by a 50% sale tax cut for smaller vehicles.”
So even if the % of new Chinese vehicles quickly increases into double digits it will still be adding many millions of ICE’s to the count. And increasing % of EV’s being sold IS NOT improving the situation. It’s only slowing the rate at which the situation IS GETTING worse.
The only metric that matters is FEWER ICE’s on the road y-o-y. And the most optimistic hopeful don’t dare try to predict when that. And when it does I suspect it will be due to a shortage of fossil fuels and not due to replacement by EV’s.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:05 am
For Christ’s sake stop trying oh so hard to find a scandal to attach to the Democrats so Republican’s can offer the equivalency argument (they are both just as bad so I might as well vote Republican). I see this constantly on this board. Recently, it was the PizzaFraud conspiracy story that the Democratic National Committee was running a child pornography operation out of a New York restaurant- that is until it was discovered that the restaurant is family owned and operated for three generations. WOOPS time to move on, but mission accomplished as there are still plenty who still believe this crap. The restaurant owners said just about once a week some nutter from Oklahoma or Missouri or Alabama shows up expecting to break-up a child sex business. The latest scandal subterfuge concerns DNC staffer Seth Rich. Same crap until yesterday when Fox was finally forced to apologize and formally retract the story in its entirety. Nevertheless, mission accomplished by planting seeds of doubt. The Republicans are so damn desperate to find ANYTHING on the Dems that they are forced to simply make shit up.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:11 am
@ Siss
Davy is part of the gang telling you how the Dems are just as bad as the Repubcons hoping you will not support the Dems in the next election, except the joke is on you “rhetorically speaking” as you can bet your last damn dollar these same folks will vote a straight Republican ticket.
I am an environmentalist. Anyone who tries to say the Dems are just as bad as the Cons on this issue is a damn liar. LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:41 am
You’re right, Derhund. Even if they Dems actions and policies are a little tepid and packing efficacy, that’s 1000% better the Repugs total denial and mendaciousness.
makati1 on Fri, 26th May 2017 1:48 am
Der/Sissy: Both of you are in deep denial if you believe there is any REAL difference between the Ds & Rs. Neither run the country. They are there for entertainment and distraction. Nothing more. Did anything change to the positive for the serfs with Bill Clinton? Bush Jr? Obama? Now Trump? Nope! Tell the serfs what they want to hear, then continue the Deep State’s plans to bring down America.
I call it the Great Leveling. You are being brought down to the level of the rest of the 7 billion plus humans on this planet. The 1/1000th percent want to rule the world and they cannot do that with a strong Americas. Sorry!
BTW: the average world per capita income is about $10K/year vs the U$ $54K/year. Are you ready for that?
Davy on Fri, 26th May 2017 6:18 am
Der Hund where did I say don’t support the Dems in the next election? This is how you die hard dems operate. Any voice of reason is squashed if it dares threaten your dignity. The reason you said that is that is how your mind works. You can’t handle the truth that the party you are so attached to is in utter corruption and collapsing before you. If I criticize that then I am the enemy. I don’t know who I will vote for and if I will even vote. Next time unless there is a voice of reason and sanity I will not vote. Both parties are a shame from my point of view and you are also a shame if your world is locked into traditional politics. If this is the case you have passed through the doors of deception.
The harder you deceived dems try to attack Trump and defend yourselves the worse you look. I am laughing at democrats now and I have a contempt for republicans I had since my youth. I am neither now. I am a doomer and your world will crumble and it will not matter who gets voted in. I only voted for Trump because Hillary was so bad. That is saying something profound about your party and its platform. I wrote off Trump from the beginning as just another deranged populous baiter but when I saw what your party had become in Hillary I voted for him. I am getting so tired of this political football game of insanity and only bring it up today because it represent the insanity in society today at its deepest level. I have never seen whiners like the dems on this board. Own you failure and through failure reinvent yourself. Going all in on your failure ensures future failure.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:25 pm
Davy, I will remember to quote your statement, ” This Seth story has wings and it is going to haunt the democrats. I see a big scandal and cover-up brewing.”
Your statement proves my point that despite even Fox News formally declaring this story a load of BS, YOU KNOW otherwise.
In response to criticism you like to declare that you equally despise Democrats AND Republicans, but your comments prove otherwise. You are being intellectually dishonest or you suffer from dual-personality syndrome. You use a double standard.
And poor Donald. It’s just not fair that he is subjected to media criticism, although you overlook the Trump fawning that occurs across the radio spectrum and Fox News and One America News and print media like the Washington Times.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:30 pm
Finally, Davy, how can you possibly claim to be a real environmentalist, yet vote for Trump who is the most environmentally destructive president ever to hold office? I can’t possibly think of a more blatant contradiction- does not compute.
Davy on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:49 pm
Der hund, are you incapable of criticism? You are the type that you have to be all against or all for. You are the perfect registered party dumbass. Please, you are highly intelligent leave this insanity and leave your party affiliations. Embrace doom and prep and forget about political parties solving anything….. “BOTH” stupid parties.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 26th May 2017 12:58 pm
Davy, the ONLY reason I broach this topic is in RESPONSE to unfounded attacks against the Dems. And when the conspiracy theory or information is factually wrong, then I feel an obligation to set the record straight.
This from conservative columnist, George Will:
“The cruel exploitation of the memory of Rich, a Democratic National Committee staffer who was shot dead last summer, was horrifying and clarifying. Republicans, without evidence, accused Rich rather than the Russians of leaking damaging DNC emails. In doing so, it has proved its willingness to credit anything — no matter how obviously deceptive or toxic — to defend President Trump and harm his opponents.
Who is the politician who legitimized conspiracy thinking at the highest level (hint: think orange and tiny hands)? Who raised the possibility that Ted Cruz’s father might have been involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy? Who hinted that Hillary Clinton might have been involved in the death of Vince Foster, or that unnamed liberals might have killed Justice Antonin Scalia? Who not only questioned President Barack Obama’s birth certificate, but raised the prospect of the murder of a Hawaiian state official in a coverup? “How amazing,” Trump tweeted in 2013, “the State Health Director who verified copies of Obama’s ‘birth certificate’ died in plane crash today. All others lived.””
onlooker on Fri, 26th May 2017 1:07 pm
Embrace doom and prep and forget about political parties solving anything….. “BOTH” stupid parties.—Here here, one wise statement
Davy on Fri, 26th May 2017 1:13 pm
Der Hund, I could care less about your loving dems and your stories good or bad and right or wrong. I attack extremist and you are a political extremist. Leave your mind trap. These people have nothing to offer you.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 26th May 2017 5:27 pm
That’s exactly your problem- you could care less about facts. YOU are the one embracing conspiracy theories. All one need do is read your messages above. Will said it best about your, “willingness to credit anything — no matter how obviously deceptive or toxic — to defend President Trump and harm his opponents.” Who said, “This Seth story has wings and it is going to haunt the democrats. I see a big scandal and cover-up brewing.”
So you cry fowl when you have your hypocrite tit caught in the ringer. You speak with forked tounge.
Davy on Fri, 26th May 2017 6:25 pm
Der hund. I don’t often talk Canadian but “Fuck” politics. I could give a shit about your petty concerns about Seth and so forth. I care about real things like our civilization in self destruct mode and our planetary system in a slow death. Your petty politics contains little meaning. Deeper intellects shun politics because politics is for the masses. Have you heard anything out of a politician lately worth listening to except consumptive nonsense for the masses?
Green People's Media on Fri, 26th May 2017 11:01 pm
Hey, errybody: What’s going to be the FUEL source for the electricity for all these driverless electric cars?
I suggest to you, it’s going to be natural gas, fed into electric generating plants.
Natural gas, that is, from fracked shale fields. Like the Barnett Shale, which looked good at the outset, but now is already in post-peak downhill production mode.
For your driverless, EV cars, you’ve got these fields to power you–
Permian (looks good!)
Utica
Barnett (looks bad!)
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Fayettville
and of course,
Marcellus.
Also, what’s going to power the 18-wheel trucks moving all your Chinese-made junk around to your doorstep?
What’s going to power the diesel locomotives in the heavy rail sector, hauling, again, your Chinese-made junk around to the intermodal terminal so it can make it to your doorstep?
What’s going to power the airplane that takes you home for the holidays, bearing gifts of Chinese-made junk for the Grandkids?
What’s going to power the container shiploads of Chinese junk now motoring across the Pacific just in time for your Black Friday shopping frenzy?
I call bullshit on this whole article.
Don’t forget: Limits to Growth.
Still a “thing.”