Peak oil without US?

73 Comments on "Peak oil without US?"

shallowsand on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 11:09 pm 



Wild, hard to believe they are that dense to ignore oil price if work in the industry. Hoping drop is short lived but afraid will need major cuts in shale play rigs to turn the tide.

Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 11:10 pm 



That’s the free market. I’m a consumer. I want you all competing for my $$.

Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 11:15 pm 



Story about hard times in the mid continent:

http://eaglefordtexas.com/news/id/142669/oil-price-drop-rattles-smaller-operators-kansas/

GregT on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:27 am 



Story about hard times in the mid continent. ( the area between Canada and Mexico)

Child poverty in the U.S. is among the worst in the developed world

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/29/child-poverty-in-the-u-s-is-among-the-worst-in-the-developed-world/

wildbourgman on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 9:14 am 



Nony it’s not all a free market. When a federal reserve bank makes decisions that allow or even force cash into high risk in order to get returns that’s not a free market. We have went from bubble to bubble because of the FED and it looks like the Shale boom is another bubble thats bursting.

I’m a peak oil guy but I’ve always thought that a massive increase in the drilling rate would increase production even before shale. Sure peak oilers didn’t see this coming, but that doesn’t mean that all is well. If you extrapolate our shale boom to the world (which I think will be rather difficult) world oil production can sustain or even grow, but it won’t be cheap and it won’t be easy. How many countries can do the fracking thing on the level of the USA? It might take a while, but hell I’m all for it that’s how I make a living.

Guys this is no time to gloat about who was right because the fat lady is yet to sing on this subject.

wildbourgman on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 10:37 am 



The fact that an 80 something year old billionaire can’t eloquently explain his thoughts in a sound bite(especially when he is interrupted by a smug TV host) does not equate to the strength or weakness of his overall argument.

I’m betting that T-Boone will be more right than he is wrong even in his old age.

Perk Earl on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 10:58 am 



What I found fascinating on that video of T-Boone on CNBC is the multiple ways the moderators tried to find to put a wedge into his arguments. Not once did they acknowledge that rig count is and will continue to go down due to the lower price of oil. They interrupted him continuously to the point he said, “Ok move on to something else.” And then they relented suddenly and let him talk again.

When they couldn’t dissuade him from his position, they tried to change the subject. When the old cnbc guy said something about limits and Malthusian etc. Boone said, “Well, that’s some good bullshit.” So he then shifted subjects to NG. What does that have to do with what T-Boone was saying about oil?

So they argue against his position (even though as he pointed out he’s the expert, not them), then if that doesn’t work they interrupt him continuously until he’s ready to give up. Then when they see that happening they change the subject. Anything to avoid acknowledging what he’s saying, or embarrass themselves by having him give up on the interview.

Those moderators should be taken out and flogged, incarcerated and left to rot in some 3rd world prison.

Nony on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 11:03 am 



Open the ANWAR. Drill, baby, drill.

Beery on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 11:07 am 



I love that a heavy hitter like Pickens comes out on the Peakist side and the cornies are frothing at the mouth desperate to obfuscate. They really do seem desperate now, LOL.

Beery on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 11:21 am 



“Open the ANWAR. Drill, baby, drill.”

With what? Magic fairy dust? Last time I checked, drilling for oil costs money, and no one’s going to drill in ANWR at current prices.

wildbourgman on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 11:34 am 



Beery, if this oil price were to normalize (even at a lower price) long enough to reduce drilling cost then Anwar is possible. Anything is possible if you have cash or have access to cash.

I had a debate with a worker on a deepwater drilling rig about why majors stopped drilling on the shallow water shelf of the GOM. He thought it was because they wanted a “new challenge” and there was still plenty of oil on the shelf of the GOM. When I pointed out that shareholders don’t care about challenges, they care about return on investment his eyes glazed over.

We are building rigs that can drill in 12,000 foot of water for a reason and it’s not because we want a new challenge. If shareholders and investors think that they will get a nice return then everything is on the table even at low prices. I personally think we are in the 1st quarter of this slowdown unless something else happens to affect the market. Some outside influences could make this last longer and some could shorten the duration. We’ll see!

Nony on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:11 pm 



Beery: open it up and let’s see.

PeterEV on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:15 pm 



Noory and others,

I challenge you to plot out conventional oil production for a number of countries and not see a peak.

The conventional US oil production that T.Boone Pickens was relating to is displaying a classical topping pattern.

Some claim that Shale Oil is the new Manna from Heaven while others claim that it is scrapping the bottom of the barrel. It can be viewed both ways but overtime, production flags and wells are shut in. Plot out the first set of wells in the Bakken and then convince me that this is Manna from Heaven.

Some are starting to see the Bakken initial production starting to flag because drilling is no longer over the sweet spots.

While Colonel Drake’s neighboring well has been producing for 150 years, I’d plot out its production. I would not rely on it to fuel this economy.

Time is the big factor. We are wasting it with BS bravado when we should be leaving oil before oil leaves us.

PeterEV

shallowsand on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 3:47 pm 



I notice Rusty hasn’t responded to me. Anyone who is making a living in the US oil patch, particularly shale, should be uneasy, IMO. KSA hasn’t been this blunt in a while. Rusty, again, how is the mood in EFS given $50 oil, $3 Nat. Gas and talking heads screaming for $30 and $2?

Nony on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 4:43 pm 



I wonder if conventional onshore will get hit harder than shale. Rock likes to talk about all the great prospects he has, but I wonder. That sponge has been squeezed pretty hard in the past. At least the shale has newness and size and such going for it. Rather than crumb picking.

Baker Hughes seems to see more vertical than horizontal rigs being laid down. [Rock made a comment about the rigs being the same but just different usage. But that’s a side issue. My main point is that number of rigs engaged in vertical has dropped a larger percent than the number in horizontal.]

Rusty Baker on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 6:20 pm 



Shallowsand, the mood is great here in the oil patch- it’s never been better: more wells being drilled: more people being employed earning good wages, boosting the American economy. The last quarter had 5% growth. What’s more, With the constant improvement in horizontal drilling, frac stages and overall efficiency in fracking, the shale patch can withstand lower oil prices sub-50 dollar per barrel prices- especially in the sweet spots of the Eagle Ford. Lower oil prices are boosting the economy like never before. Auto sales and real estate is drastically picking up. So yeah, I’m living the good life right now, shallow. It’s morning in America again like the good ole Ronald Reagan once said. I don’t spend all my energy and time worrying about a patently false doomer myth of peak oil. Peakers have been thoroughly refuted time and time again; you would have to be an idiot to continue believing in the discredited myth of peak oil. There’s your response, shallowsand. Happy Holidays 🙂

Rusty Baker on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 6:36 pm 



Peakers have a visceral hatred of fracking because it has thrown the proverbial monkey wrench into their peak oil/economic collapse fantasies. M. King Hubbert’s predictions never anticipated fracking. Everyone said before fracking that USA was headed for terminal oil production decline, and they have all been proven wrong; it’s undeniable at this point. Additionally, you peakers keep harping on about shale oil companies being unprofitable, thats another peaker myth. Shale companies are extremely profitable, thats why fracking keeps growing as an industry and attracting more investment by the day. The industry is so profitable and prolific that it single-handedly caused a global oil glut. As a result, the promised American economic renaissance is taking place before our eyes. More people are buying houses, hummers, imcreasing savings, etc. You peakers can keep indulging in your paranoid peak oil delusions, building bunkers, stocking canned goods, water and gold but I’m going to enjoy the American way of life and the generous income I’m receiving from the shale oil patch. 🙂

Bost on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 6:53 pm 



LOL Rusty. I choose to be polite because the future is so uncertain. War, weather, asteroid, volcanoes, ocean heating, pollution, climate change etc could all cause tremendous disruption. Peak oil supply and demand in otherwise calm circumstances is decades in the future, not 2 years or less as many as doomers predict as they have for years.

wildbourgman on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 4:11 pm 



Rusty, without peak oil you wouldn’t have a need for fracking shale wells. You also can have a perceived glut without making a profit off of that glut. You can produce oil from a really good oil well and still not be profitable. If you are really in the oilfield and have been for any length of time then you would know that the only reason we are going after shale and Deepwater is because we have to, not because it’s what the industry really wants.

You are basically saying that peak oil would mean that you make less money right now and it’s exactly the opposite. If conventional oil was abundant then oilfield professionals would make much less. It’s peak oil that has a high school grad like myself making 6 figures because of scarcity.

Now as I predicted in 2013, we are going to have a little slow down in the greater oilfield and I think shale will have a big slow down. Just in case your new to oilfield work, this is why you save your money and don’t buy a hummer even though some dude in a bar says that you will be living large for 50 years.

Rusty we had your type during 1980’s 1990’s and 2000’s slow downs, many of them ended up selling the big house in the new subdivsion, the bass boat, the four wheelers, ETC and moved back home with parents or inlaws. There is a fine line between arrogance and confidence I don’t think that this is the time for either.

You hunker down until this thing is over and you’ll be fine.

Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 4:17 pm 



Go Skins, beat Boys.

wildbourgman on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 7:31 pm 



OK, Go skins!

Harquebus on Fri, 26th Dec 2014 6:57 pm 



@Rusty.
Peak oil is peak production not no production.
Peak oil is an observation, not a theory.
50 years at current production. That’s the caveat. “At current production”.
Growing the crude oil production is necessary to grow economies.

Sometimes it is better to remain silent and appear ignorant than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt.

Harquebus on Fri, 26th Dec 2014 6:59 pm 



The 70’s limits to growth has recently been reevaluated and is right on track.