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Page added on November 20, 2019

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Goldman: Go Long On Fracking

Judging by the share price of shale oil and gas producers, you would think the industry is one from which to keep well away.

Goldman Sachs, however, is recommending clients go long on the premise that the fracking industry, while depressed now, is simply going through a down cycle.

In other words, today’s pain is tomorrows’ gain.

Rig counts are indeed down, as this graph from Oilprice.com shows:

Ample supplies have resulted in falling prices.

Natural gas inventories have surged this year, rising from a low point of 1,155 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in April to 3,724 Bcf at the end of October.

The falling rig count has reverberated down the supply chain.

The cost of consumables, like Permian frack sand, is down about 80% from its peak, Joseph Triepke, president of consultancy Infill Thinking, is quoted as saying.

Prices across the commodity spectrum have been undermined this year by a strong dollar and trade fears creating pessimistic investor sentiment. Oil and natural gas prices, however, have seen short-term support, as supply-side fears have spiked sentiment (only to fall back as fears have proved unfounded).

Having been boosted by the attacks to key Saudi Arabian production infrastructure earlier this summer, global oil prices came under further pressure as Saudi Arabia recovered rapidly in Q3, when output was back up to 10.3 million barrels per day in October.

Meanwhile, Iran announced it had discovered a giant oil field in the country’s south, Oilprice reports. The field may hold as much as 50 billion barrels of oil — almost as big as all of the reserves held in the U.S. (around 61 billion barrels).

If and when oil from Iran’s new field ever reaches world markets, however, is another matter.

Indeed, Goldman’s advice appears to be for the long term.

Prices are not expected to recover anytime soon, with the bank suggesting it could be a year or two before falling output brings the market back into sufficient balance for prices to rise.

By AG Metal Miner

OilPrice



89 Comments on "Goldman: Go Long On Fracking"

  1. Nostradamus on Wed, 20th Nov 2019 7:31 pm 

    Goldman advises investors to go long but they will go short.

  2. makati1 on Wed, 20th Nov 2019 8:29 pm 

    Goldman Suks is the vampire squid taking down Amerika. Time for it to be extinct.

  3. makati1 on Wed, 20th Nov 2019 8:33 pm 

    How many fools will be out of a job when the SHTF and economists, investment advisors, stock brokers, and other similar leaches, are no longer needed?

    How many oily careers will likewise evaporate when the oil fields contract/shut down? How many writers who’s life is writing about those fields and careers?

    A change is coming and it will rock the world. Buckle up!

  4. Simon on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 5:26 am 

    Mak

    I know modellers and traders.

    They are Smart, focussed and ruthless.

    Generally Physically Fit

    Who do you think will win when SHTF …

    Simon

  5. Richard Guenette on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 7:40 am 

    We should go back to bartering where goods (such as food and other basics) can be exchanged. Get rid of capitalism.

  6. Richard Guenette on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 7:42 am 

    Think and act local.

  7. JuanP sock on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 7:49 am 

    This is stupid:

    Richard Guenette said Think and act local.

    Richard Guenette said We should go back to bartering where goods (such a…

    Richard Guenette said Israel has an army of cowards (Example: they could…

    Richard Guenette said Haven’t we messed up the environment enough?…

  8. Dennis on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 8:21 am 

    Meanwhile Goldman is shorting the fracking thing?

  9. Shortend on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 8:45 am 

    I always take the advice of Goldman and Sucks

  10. Richard Guenette on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 10:13 am 

    Bankers are the worst con artists. They lack a conscience as well as common sense (logic and reason).

  11. Richard Guenette on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 10:13 am 

    Greed is the root of all evil.

  12. majece majece on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 12:00 pm 

    I can advise you to visit https://cellspyapps.org/ if you want to learn more about Cell Phone Spy Apps. It’s quite important in modern world

  13. Robert Inget on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 1:51 pm 

    It is estimated that the US shale industry has burned its way through $3 trillion of cash
    https://www.arpinvestments.com/arl/energy-misconceptions

    When shale first entered the frame almost ten years ago, no shale oil producers were cash flow positive unless WTI traded at $80 or higher. Although it did so on a fairly regular basis between 2011 and 2014, over that last ten years, it is estimated that the US shale industry has burned its way through $3 trillion of cash (Source: MacroStrategy Partnership LLP), which is a staggering amount of money.

    Now, in mid-2019, more and more investors seem to be of the opinion that, as long as WTI trades above $50, the average shale producer is cash flow positive, but that is simply not true. In 3Q18, the latest quarter on which I have detailed information, WTI averaged $69.75 (about $10 higher than today’s price). In that quarter, only one-third of all US shale oil producers were cash flow positive.

    (Lifted from another source)

  14. Robert Inget on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 2:00 pm 

    On a more positive side, Our economy survived
    2009+ winters on cheap fossil fuel.

    That low cost gas (NG) and shale (CL) enabled the US to recover far more quickly.

    Investors kept throwing money at shale wall in hopes some would stick. It didn’t.

    WHEN Trump goes away, oil and gas prices will
    go ballistic as restrictions on drilling, enforcement
    of regulations, will retard any possible growth.

  15. Richard Guenette on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 2:07 pm 

    Lower the cost of living and increase minimum wage.

  16. makati1 on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 4:43 pm 

    Simon, “…Who do you think will win when SHTF…”? Certainly no one involved with the Stock Market Casino. When the dust settles, they will be history. Capitalism has about had its fling. Socialism or Communism were the common systems throughout history.

    The idea of making money without sweating is new and has about killed itself with greed. Only royalty and the gentry class could live that way and their lives were always in jeopardy. They had to treat their subjects fairly or die. I suspect that method of containing greed is returning. So be it. There should never be billionaires or even close.

  17. Richard Guenette on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 5:17 pm 

    Money doesn’t buy happiness (it comes from within us).

  18. makati1 on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 7:33 pm 

    “945 Toxic Waste Sites at Risk of Disaster From Climate Crisis”

    China? Nope! Amerikan!

    https://www.ecowatch.com/superfund-sites-climate-disaster-2641394009.html

    “The climate crisis has put at least 945 designated toxic waste sites at severe risk of disaster from escalating wildfires, floods, rising seas and other climate-related disasters, according to a new study from the non-partisan Government Accountability Office (GAO), as the AP reported.
    The country’s most contaminated spots that pose an imminent threat to human health or the environment are designated Superfund sites. That means cleaning them up is a national priority. The EPA has identified more than 500 contaminants at Superfund sites, including arsenic, lead and mercury.”

    There’s more: “The GAO report looked at 1,571 Superfund sites and found that six out of 10 are vulnerable to extreme weather caused by the climate crisis.” 1,571+ sites!

    Amerikan hypocrites, always pointing to China, should look at where they live.

  19. Cloggie on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 9:19 pm 

    Meet 6 German NIMBYs who currently quite successfully sabotage the renewable energy transition:

    https://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/windkraft-buergerwille-contra-energiewende-fotostrecke-171660.html

    All 6 believe in man-made climate change. Yet the arguments against further installation of wind turbines and high-voltage grid lines are:

    – landscape deterioration
    – why must Germany be a frontrunner if the rest of the world doesn’t follow anyway?
    – build these wind turbines at sea (agree)
    – not sufficient storage available (agree)

    Yet the data contradicts that Germany’s renewable electricity output is stalling. So far in 2019 Germany is at 47%, a staggering 6% increase compared to 2018 (41%):

    https://ieefa.org/renewables-have-generated-47-of-germanys-electric-needs-year-to-date/

    Again: the transition needs 200% to complete. Target date 2050 or 5% per year. Germany is doing fine.

  20. Brent Georgeson on Thu, 21st Nov 2019 10:39 pm 

    I can remember when after hurricane Katrina everybody was freaking out that oil hit 50 dollars a barrel for the first time. Then when shale oil first came on the scene they were saying that it could be produced at 30 dollars or so. Now they are saying 50 dollars is cheap. Shale oil hardly made any money when oil was 100 dollars. Now that the oil companies have focused on the best spots for the last few years those are going away.

    How many investors are going to jump into oil after they got so burned this time?

  21. Simon on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 3:04 am 

    Hi Mak

    Certainly no one involved with the Stock Market Casino. When the dust settles, they will be history.
    >> I am not so sure they will not just re-invent themselves (not all for sure) but the characteristics for leadership are the same throughout

    Capitalism has about had its fling. Socialism or Communism were the common systems throughout history.
    >> Errrr … I cannot think of a single example (of socialism or communism) outside the 20th Century, Feudalism and Capitalism have been it, since man started to trade in Flint

    The idea of making money without sweating is new and has about killed itself with greed.
    >> Outside of a few years of the dark ages, we have always had a merchant class or landowners, roman and greek patricians, who managed the peasants

    Only royalty and the gentry class could live that way and their lives were always in jeopardy They had to treat their subjects fairly or die.
    >> Bar the french revolution (which the merchant class won) I cannot think of an occurence of people daring to attack the ruling classes, maybe the occasional individual attack, but the elite generally didnt fear the workers

  22. makati1 on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 3:11 am 

    Sinophobes, this could be dangerous to your mental health:

    “Understanding China”

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/understanding-china/5695479

    Larry Romanoff is a retired management consultant and businessman. He has held senior executive positions in international consulting firms, and owned an international import-export business. He has been a visiting professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University, presenting case studies in international affairs to senior EMBA classes. Mr. Romanoff lives in Shanghai and is currently writing a series of ten books generally related to China and the West.

  23. makati1 on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 3:30 am 

    Simon: would you like to retract that statement?

    Perhaps you should review history.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regicide

    146 example of regicide, many of which were by the military/people.

    ~4000 years of getting rid of a ruler by involuntary death.

    1962 BC Amenemhat I, of Egypt by his own bodyguards…
    1155 BC Ramesses III of Egypt from a neck wound inflicted by conspirators
    1005 BC Ish-bosheth of Israel, slain by his own captains
    797 BC Jehoash of Judah by his own servants at Miloh
    641 BC Amon of Judah, assassinated by own servants
    233 BC Deidamia II of Epirus, assassinated during a republican revolt
    80 BC Ptolemy XI Alexander II, lynched by the citizens of Alexandria
    41 Caligula by a group of conspirators supported by the Roman senate
    190 Emperor Shao of Han forced to drink poison by rebels
    235 Severus Alexander murdered by the army
    602 Maurice, Byzantine Emperor, beheaded
    1520 Moctezuma II, Emperor of the Aztecs, by either the Spanish or his own people
    1587 Mary, Queen of Scots executed after a trial by an English court of 36 noblemen over the Babington Plot
    1605 False Dmitry I, an impostor who ascended Russian throne, was overthrown and killed by a local mob
    1903 Alexander I of Serbia and his wife Queen Draga by a group of army officers
    Some of the 146.

  24. supremacist muzzies jerk on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 3:57 am 

    import. notification per supertard SAW SAWS pbuh swt REAL Green Goat you losing cool lately. please go play with the goats at OldMacDonaldHadAFarm.com and auto keltecs

    brief cornholing or brisk cornhusking does REAL Green Goat miracles

  25. simon on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:00 am 

    so once every 100 years or so somewhere in the whole planet, a leader is killed, I have analysed, but how many of these killings are by the people and how many by the merchant class

    This still does not answer the other points

  26. JuanP socks on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:03 am 

    Stupid is up with his lunatic sock

    supremacist muzzies jerk said import. notification per supertard SAW SAWS pbuh s…

    supremacist muzzies jerk said supertard SAW SAWS pbuh swt REAL Green Goat you lo…

  27. Davy on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:05 am 

    “Sinophobes, this could be dangerous to your mental health:”

    Then by extension mr. nutter global research lover you have mental health issues from your anti-Americanism. LOL. makato, you just told on yourself.

  28. Davy on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:38 am 

    “UBS Has No Choice In Passing Negative Rate Pain To Customers”
    https://tinyurl.com/yxy9x6pc zero hedge

    “There’s been talk that the Federal Reserve will slam interest rates to zero or even negative when the next recession strikes. President Trump’s support for negative interest rates has quickly increased in the last several months as the latest tracking estimates for Q4 GDP have tumbled to sub 0.4%. It seems that policy rates in the US are too high — and will likely conform to the rest of the world, which is near zero to negative territory. This has undoubtedly alarmed UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, who said banks have “no choice” but to pass on the negative rate pain to customers. Ermotti said UBS “will not pass negative rates to smaller clients, the personal banking clients,” that’s because if UBS and other EU banks actually passed along negative rates to poor and middle-class families — that would quickly spark unwanted social unrest that could crash the entire system…The ECB and SNB have slammed rates into negative territory in recent years in hopes to stimulate domestic and regional growth by charging banks to deposit funds, rather than lending to consumers or businesses, Bloomberg noted. Negative interest rates have been in an absolute disaster in Europe, with Germany teetering on the edge of a recession. Though Trump on Twitter has been begging for negative rates for the last several months as the US economy grinds to halt in Q4. Trump could see negative rates, but it will be for all the wrong reasons, and then US banks will have to make the decision that European banks are currently going through, which is how to pass along negative rates to customers.”

  29. Davy on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:50 am 

    “New research shows one-third of South Korea pollutants come from China”
    https://tinyurl.com/u9cknox upi

    “According to the report that includes Chinese, Japanese and South Korean research, ultrafine dust known to cause respiratory problems persists in three major Korean cities: Seoul, Daejeon and Busan, Yonhap reported. The study said 51 percent of pollutants originated from within Korea, 32 percent from China and the remaining 2 percent from Japan, with the rest originating from North Korea, Mongolia and Southeast Asia.”

  30. Davy on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:58 am 

    “China’s Hunger For Coal Is Growing”
    https://tinyurl.com/rm9tnpf oil price

    “For the first time since the Chinese coal plant construction frenzy began in the 1980s, the total coal-fired capacity outside China has shrunk over the past 18 months as China continues to add more and more coal-fired power plants, a new study from Global Energy Monitor showed…The continued growth of China’s coal fleet and consideration of plans to significantly raise the nation’s coal power cap show that while the country is often hailed as a clean energy leader, the momentum of coal power expansion has yet to be halted”

  31. Davy on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 7:58 am 

    Cloggie referenced smuggled-into prison 2nd-hand cheap mobile phones.

    My neighbor showed me how to smuggle phones into the slammer by carefully inserting them inside the rectum. First, use an over-sized dildo (ebony) to stretch the anal cavity.

    Anyone scheduled for prison should give this a go. I have posted detailed instructions on REAL Green including a how to video using my rectum as the test case, although to be fair I have had quite a bit of practice via Humper Pumper #9 Glory Hole insertion (ebony).

  32. JuanP ID theft on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 8:19 am 

    This is stupid:

    Davy said Cloggie referenced smuggled-into prison 2nd-hand c…

  33. JuanP ID theft on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 8:31 am 

    This is stupider:

    Davy

  34. Davy to juanPee on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 9:06 am 

    Stupid has no life nor a brain. He has been trolling and stalking for two years because his widdle feeling were hurt. Psychopaths behave this way especially juanpee because he is so hyper conscious of a high level of respect he expects. He is a worthless turd who dropped out of high school and has been scamming and manipulating people for years. He sold condos on Miami Beech for years. That should tell you his ethics level. He is a Scumbag South America resident alien who hates the US and Americans but thinks he deserves to live here. Get the fuck out of this country cuntface! I will see you humiliated daily pussy. Your censorship will fail. It is a honor to neuter your nutter shit.

  35. Davy on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 10:22 am 

    Oops, sorry for getting all triggered and losing my widdle temper again y’all. This lame forum means the world to me. I got nothin else.

  36. makati1 on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 4:56 pm 

    Simon, what country, prior to the modern times, had a stock market? (Capitalism) Answer: The Dutch in 1611. That began the idea of something for nothing. No one should live except by the sweat of his brow or contributing to the welfare of all, as in science, medicine, or the like. Certainly not the blood and sweat of others. Time we kill the idea of “royalty”.

    My original comment, that the leaches of the stock market will be put to the sword, or have zero worth in the future, still holds. I would buy the sword, when it is needed.

    By mid century, or sooner, survival will be the #1 activity of all of humanity, it seems. Not stock brokering or living off the toil of others. At best, it will be a communist world. I won’t be here to see it.

  37. Richard Guenette on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 5:30 pm 

    Americans should stop blaming China when it comes to environmental destruction.

  38. Duncan Idaho on Fri, 22nd Nov 2019 5:32 pm 

    Actually, capitalism started in he Italian City States in the 14th Century. You had a profit taken between the user value and exchange value of a product.
    The person who did took that profit didn’t do any of the work.
    Welcome to our current time.

  39. makati1 on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 12:01 am 

    For your weekend reading pleasure;

    “Economic Upheaval and the Rise of the US Police State”

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/rise-police-state/5695648

    “Lindorff said he used to scoff at what he saw as wild claims that Americans were living in a police state, but that he’s changed his mind, and that Americans are totally ignorant of the fact that they are being constantly watched and subject to arbitrary arrest, that they discover the truth only when they cross a line. In discussing the freedom of Americans to criticize and protest against the ruling elites, he wrote that while they may feel free to act, Americans must note “the terrible lengths to which this government is going to repress political activists. The list of people being hounded and persecuted by the US police state is far too long to publish. Suffice to say if police repression can happen to the people on that list, it can happen to all of us.” And that says it all.” That pretty well sums it up.

  40. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 6:05 am 

    Hydrogen economy really taking off in Europe:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/11/23/dutch-consortium-to-build-gigawatt-electrolysis-plant/

    “Dutch Consortium to Build Gigawatt Electrolysis Plant”

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/11/23/hydrogen-economy-taking-off-in-europe/

    “Hydrogen Economy Taking Off in Europe”

  41. dave thompson on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 2:04 pm 

    This article sums up capitalism and how it works for those of you who want to know. https://dissidentvoice.org/2019/11/imperialism-is-like-a-multilevel-marketing-company-with-its-own-military/

  42. dave thompson on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 2:09 pm 

    Cloggie, By now you have to know that there can be no such thing as a “hydrogen economy” the laws of physics and thermo dynamics make it impossible to achieve. http://euanmearns.com/the-hydrogen-economy-more-green-mythology/

  43. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 3:29 pm 

    Damn, another long post disappearing in the memory hole. Please don’t make me to have to split up my post in three parts yet again.

  44. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 3:30 pm 

    (some useless filler text)

    “Cloggie, By now you have to know that there can be no such thing as a “hydrogen economy”

    Euanmeans claims that the cost of hydrogen via electrolysis…

    I calculate costs of £142 / MWh for electrolysis and £100 / MWh for steam methane reforming (SMR). These compare with industrial methane prices of £15 / MWh at odds with multiple claims made by the Scottish Government that hydrogen is a low cost option.

    [part 1]

  45. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 3:32 pm 

    {more useless text to fool this site into thinking this is a different post}

    This gentleman…

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/hydrogen-from-electrolysis-now-cost-competitive/

    says:

    The running cost… I estimate €5 per MWh… I think this is conservative… 800 kWh of hydrogen produced at a cost of £42.42 means a cost of 5.3 pence per kWh of energy.

    [part 2]

  46. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 3:33 pm 

    Great trouble getting “part 3” through…

  47. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 3:35 pm 

    I give up on part 3. Hopeless this site.

  48. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 3:35 pm 

    [part 3]

    Take-away point: you can Google any opinion that suits your character and temperament.

    [part 3]

    Euanmeans is a peakoil true believer and doomer and adept of renewable energy skeptic MacKay and so are you, probably.

    [part 3]

    For your own spiritual health and happiness, I suggest you to stay with Euanmeans. Character thingy.

    [part 3]

  49. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 4:13 pm 

    “Renewable Hydrogen Already Cost Competitive”

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/11/23/renewable-hydrogen-already-cost-competitive/

    By 2030, the price for renewable hydrogen could have sunk to ca. 2 euro/kg, that is 39 kWh. One liter petrol is 13 kWh and costs currently EUR 1.60 (Netherlands). Note that the petrol has a considerable tax share (64% in the Netherlands).

    https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benzineaccijns

    So the real price comparison would be:

    Gasoline: 13 kWh for 53 cents.
    Hydrogen: 39 kWh for 200 cents.

    Hydrogen would indeed still be more expensive than gasoline (200 vs 160 units), but only 20%. And far less environmental cost.

  50. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Nov 2019 5:06 pm 

    Simon, what country, prior to the modern times, had a stock market? (Capitalism) Answer: The Dutch in 1611.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_exchange#/media/File:MG_056-De_Beurs_van_Hendrick_de_Keyser.jpg

    “That began the idea of something for nothing. No one should live except by the sweat of his brow or contributing to the welfare of all, as in science, medicine, or the like. Certainly not the blood and sweat of others. Time we kill the idea of “royalty”.”

    The Dutch stock exchange of 1611 was establish in a time of revolt against the Spanish king and royalty in general. Dutch Republic = Dutch Golden Age.

    My original comment, that the leaches of the stock market will be put to the sword, or have zero worth in the future, still holds. I would buy the sword, when it is needed.

    A lot of stock market activity is carried out by ordinary people, working for pension funds, who simply are looking for opportunities to serve their clients best interests: guaranteeing a well-deserved comfortable old age after a life long of hard working.

    By mid century, or sooner, survival will be the #1 activity of all of humanity, it seems. Not stock brokering or living off the toil of others. At best, it will be a communist world. I won’t be here to see it.

    Go tell that your Chinese pets. When they turned capitalist around 1980, their economy has seen a meteoric rise:

    https://documents1940.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/risendfallofempires.jpg

    Capitalism is the best way to liberate people from poverty.

    When it was invented in the Netherlands, it caused a meteoric rise of Holland in the European state system:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/03/10/the-netherlands-in-the-17th-century/

    Capitalism is efficiency, it is a system where savings are allocated to promising new enterprises.

    Capitalism doesn’t need to be abolished, it needs to be tamed, as the capitalist horse is too wild, too energetic.

    The economic system needs to be subjected to environmental principles, oligarchs need to be abolished (max 20-50 million max private wealth) as they are an enemy of democracy. Basic income needs to be provided, to lower minimum wage and lower the treshold to the labor market. And if you still are unable (unwilling) to provide yourself an income, you become part-time property of the state and you are made to serve the common interest.

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